Memphis basketball vs. SMU in AAC matchup: Score prediction, scouting report
The Memphis basketball team was facing a difficult proposition already in an SMU team that has gotten off to a strong start this season.
The Mustangs (10-4, 1-0 AAC) have won four in a row and already equaled last season's win total. They are coming to FedExForum Sunday (4 p.m., ESPN) to face the 15th-ranked Tigers (12-2, 1-0), winners of seven straight.
But Penny Hardaway's squad might have lost senior guard Caleb Mills for the season with a left knee injury during Thursday's win at Tulsa. On top of that, airplane maintenance issues forced the team to spend the night there, and it did not get back to Memphis until after 2 p.m. Friday.
But a game that presently qualifies as a Quad 2 opportunity for the Tigers is on deck. Here are three things to think about ahead of Sunday.
With Caleb Mills out, who will step up?
Losing Mills means the overall veteran experience and leadership take a hit. The former Houston and Florida State standout brought a lot of both to the table.
His offense had been trending in the wrong direction (4.6 points per game in his past five outings) prior to getting hurt. But he also has been a strong locker room presence and one of the top defenders on the team this season.
How the Tigers will account for his loss remains to be seen. Hardaway could choose to distribute Mills' minutes (26.3 per game through the first 12) to a variety of players. Redshirt guard Jayhlon Young is averaging 13.3 minutes per game. Super senior Jayden Hardaway (12.8 minutes per game) and true freshman Ashton Hardaway (10.5 minutes a game) could see bigger roles.
Also, as late transfer Nae'Qwan Tomlin continues to acclimate to the program, his minutes naturally will increase. True freshman Carl Cherenfant, who has been used sparingly, is another player who could find himself on the floor more.
SMU's sparkling résumé
The metrics love the Mustangs.
SMU is ranked 43rd in the NCAA's all-important NET rankings (as of Saturday), just one spot behind Memphis. Rob Lanier's program is also 67th in ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). The only AAC teams ranked higher in the BPI are FAU (20th) and Memphis (41st). KenPom has SMU slotted at No. 50.
But a closer look at what the Mustangs have done this season makes this a bit of a head-scratcher. Their best win came on the road versus Florida State (which is 7-6 with losses to South Florida and Lipscomb). SMU is 0-3 in Quad 1 opportunities. But it lost to Wisconsin by just eight points on a neutral court and dropped a two-point game to Dayton at home.
SMU scouting report
The Mustangs have hung their hat largely on defense.
They are 24th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are giving up just 61.6 points per game this season, which is the 12th-best scoring defense in the country. Their effective field goal percentage defense is second in the nation; only Houston's is better.
Former Oklahoma State forward Tyreek Smith doesn't start, but he leads the Mustangs in blocks (23). Zhuric Phelps, who leads the team in scoring (14.8 ppg) in spite of poor efficiency numbers, also is tops in steals (27).
MEMPHIS BASKETBALL: Inside Jahvon Quinerly's redemption story in the Tigers' dramatic win at Tulsa
Memphis vs. SMU score prediction
Memphis 76, SMU 72: The Tigers will play with purpose and come out with the win.
Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.
This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis basketball vs. SMU: Score prediction, scouting report
