Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 6 of 2023 season
Yesterday I posted this tweet, er, X:
“Tomorrow’s Love Hate is an AMA. Ask Matthew Anything. So… what do you want to know?”
Hundreds of replies within the first hour and it’s still going. Too many great ones to pick them all – thank you for the questions. So, let’s dive right in. With a hat tip to Bill Simmons, here are actual tweets from actual followers:
@metsfans126: Is there any hope for Jahmyr Gibbs after what Campbell said?
TMR: If you missed what Lions head coach Dan Campbell said, here’s the video, but yeah, Campbell is saying what we have been saying since early August. David Montgomery is their bellcow and they want to be a physical team that runs the ball. And Montgomery is the guy that can do that. That said, yes, there is hope for Gibbs. Gibbs is basically what D’Andre Swift was in this offense last year, which was a Top 15 RB on a PPG basis in PPR. He’s been hurt and he’s young but patience. Gibbs will have a very nice second half. Not as nice as Monty’s, but nice. Don’t bail yet.
@TheRealLamptray: Brandin Cooks is essentially droppable, right? I mean, we can’t trust him in, any game, the rest of the year. So might as well, right?
TMR: Yes. The whole offense is a mess and they’ll be better – great matchup this week with the Chargers – but with Michael Gallup and Jake Ferguson also competing for targets behind CeeDee Lamb (I call him eights), I don’t see a scenario where Cooks becomes a useable every week starter in a normal size league. He’ll have some decent games I am sure, but barring injury to others, it's hard to see it being predictable or consistent. Let me put it this way. If he was on my waiver wire, I wouldn't be picking him up.
@Mighty_LR: Your thoughts on the Roman Empire
TMR: Well, I mean I think about it multiple times every day.
@Fitz_437: At what point do you start looking towards playoffs and stashing players for that versus focusing week by week leading up? Any big recommendations for future weeks?
TMR: Well, in general, once you know you’re gonna make the playoffs or are at least very likely to. So, depends on the league. How many teams make the playoffs? Is it a one week or two week matchup per playoff game? etc. etc. But, assuming the playoffs start Week 15, I’d say around Week 12 is when you start stocking up.
@mharaguc: What’s the meaning of life?
TMR: 42
@Rstanley_21: Do you think JJ is playing another game this year?
TMR: Most likely, yes, Justin Jefferson will play again this year. But I discussed this on the podcast yesterday morning and others have floated this idea as well. Vikings are 1-4 right now. Their next four games are at Chicago, San Francisco, at Green Bay, at Atlanta. Three road games and the Niners. Packers and Falcons have tough defenses, but let’s be generous and say they split the next four. That means the Vikings are 3-6 when Jefferson is eligible to return against the Saints in Week 10. Do they bring him back in what is likely a lost season at that point? Rumor is the Vikings want to move on from Kirk Cousins after this year. Do they keep themselves in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes by trading Kirk and keeping JJ on the bench? Also, Vikings bye is Week 13, which means, at a minimum, Jefferson is missing five of the next nine weeks before fantasy playoffs start. Less than half the time in a BEST case scenario. So, yeah, I think he does play again, but I also think there’s a non-zero chance we’ve seen his last game of the year. If you’re 1-4 or 2-3 and just lost JJ, I have no issue trading him because you need to win NOW.
@Phinfanalyst: Best pizza in CT?
TMR: Well, I haven’t tried them all but I’ll say Sally’s in New Haven and the Colony Grill (I go to the Stamford location) are my top two go-to’s.
@anthony89955161: Have you made plans to see the Era tour film yet? And if not, why?
TMR: I have not and I’m annoyed. I want to see it. The Taylor Swift Era concert was legit the best concert experience of my life. And I had planned on taking my daughters to see it. But then they got invited to Sadie’s birthday party and Sadie’s parents are taking all the kids to see the movie, dammit. That Sadie I tell you... Anyways, I am guessing my daughters will want to see it again and I’ll take them. At least, I really hope they want to see it again. Because I want to see it and you know, it’ll seem a lot better if I am taking them as opposed to going with, say, Jay Croucher. By the way, @rvlad22 asked me what my favorite Taylor Swift song is and these days it’s Blank Space, Anti-Hero or You Need to Calm Down.
@Wade_Gerrett: FMK: Taylor Swift, Brittany Mahomes, Jay Croucher:
TMR: Hmm. That’s an all-timer. Well, for the purposes of a family friendly website let’s agree the “F” stands for friend. And I’ll say friend Taylor Swift because, if Instagram is any indication, she seems like a very cool, very generous friend. And Ryan Reynolds is in her friend group and who doesn’t love Ryan Reynolds? He’d be cool to hang with. As it is, I spend every day of my life with Jay Croucher and we did have our one magical night in Buffalo so in some states I think I’m already married to Jay. Which leaves Brittany. Sorry, Brittany.
@DanBallou: Do you plan to write a second book?
TMR: I don’t know. I want to. But it’s also the hardest thing I have ever done and took me over two years and I don’t know if I have that in me again. So maybe. I get asked that a lot. I will say that if you enjoy my writing and haven’t read my first book, I think it’s the best thing I’ve ever written. Not a plug – you can get a used copy for like a buck on Amazon. But, you know, it might be a long time before I write another.
@JerseyFreshest: Are your Daily Orange (columns) “Berry Funny” available for viewing online anywhere?
TMR: I can’t imagine they are and if they are, I don’t know where. I just chose this question because I can’t believe anyone remembers the humor column I wrote for Syracuse University’s student newspaper when I went there over 30 years ago! You’re a hardcore fan, man. Appreciate you!
@MarkBond1960: Does Rashee Rice make the leap to an every week starter this season?
TMR: Yes! Love me some Rashee Rice. In the future, and ahem, this week. (See below). Rice leads all qualified wide receivers in targets per route run. When he’s out there, he’s earning targets at a very high rate. Have to believe he’s going to continue to increase his playing time as the year goes on. And you’ll win some bar bets with this, but Rice also leads all Chiefs with eight red zone targets this season. Yes, even more than Travis Kelce.
@betterthanlego: Why were you not in more episodes of The League!?
TMR: Good question. I texted my friend Jeff Schaffer, co-creator and Executive Producer of "The League" asking him this very question. Jeff’s response:
“Our guys were schmedricks from Winnetka. They only get one chance to dance with the prettiest girl in the room!“
@JoeCoolMiller: Would you ever consider bringing back “The Fantasy Show”? We miss the squad ☹
@Twizzle1515: Do you miss ESPN and @DanielDopp and @Stephania_ESPN and @FieldYates? Would or could you be a guest on the ESPN Fantasy podcast??
TMR: I get a version of this question a lot and I’ll tell you that I am very happy here at NBC Sports. So, no, while I had a great run at ESPN I don’t miss it in general. But for sure, I definitely miss working with my friends Daniel, Stephania and Field. I still see them occasionally and text with them and I still play in multiple fantasy leagues with all three. As for "The Fantasy Show"… that’s the thing I miss the most, by far. My favorite thing I ever did. All we did was laugh for five years straight. I am still very close with the producers of that show and Daniel, of course. Not sure how or when, but yeah, would love to figure out a way to see Strawman, the Bear of Bad News, Norby puppet, Crystal, The Stephen A Bot and everyone else again. Maybe one day. Lastly, I don’t know if ESPN would allow it but I’d be happy to do a “home and home” as it were with my old podcast friends. Be a guest on Focus and have them on "Fantasy Football Happy Hour." I’ll see if that’s possible. Would be fun for sure.
@EMGDynaMight: What’s the best Star Wars movie of all time and why is it “The Empire Strikes Back?”
TMR: No Ewoks, no Jar Jar Binks but it does have this:
Leia: I love you.
Han: I know.
@warbucks82: How do you determine future picks worth trading in dynasty leagues? And when to give them up?
TMR: I just use the trade calculator on DynastyLeagueFootball.com. Seriously. Best tool I’ve seen. It’s literally why I went into business with them and added them to RotoPass.com.
@MikeKulcik: What’s one of the most underrated Buffett songs in his vast catalog?
TMR: Way too many to choose from, but I’ve always been partial to “Tonight I just need my guitar.” Also, for a fun song, “You’ll never work in this business again.” Or “My head hurts, my feet stink and I don’t love Jesus.” “Nobody from Nowhere” should have gotten more love. Honestly I could answer like 100 songs to this question. Lots of people asked my favorite song of his and it’s "Son of a Son of a Sailor." Not close.
@Bobbycrooked: Do you feel genuine remorse when you make a bad prediction? Or have you learned to roll with it and take the good with the bad?
TMR: Both? I do feel bad and hate it when a prediction goes awry. I used to beat myself up so much on it. But also… between all the shows, columns, rankings… I make over 300 predictions a week. Well over. It’s just not possible to nail all of them. So as long as I had good process in coming to the conclusion I did, that’s all I can control and hope I continue hitting more than I miss. And as my friend Ian Hartitz of FantasyLife.com likes to say after a miss, hey, we’ll watch the tape, learn from it and get better. We’re onto Cincinnati.
@brettphillips15: What is your go to Love Hate theme when you are out of ideas and on a deadline?
TMR: You just read it.
With that, let’s get to it. A reminder that "Fantasy Football Pregame" airs this Sunday morning 11am ET to 1pm ET and it’s now on YouTube in addition to Peacock. We answer more questions than any other pregame show so tweet the show using the #FFPregame or comment on our YouTube feed. It airs on the NFL on NBC YouTube page. You can subscribe to my free, daily newsletter at FantasyLife.com and as always, thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column.
Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 6
Justin Fields vs. Minnesota
I have a theory. Chase Claypool is playing out of position. No, I don’t mean he should be moved to tight end, as the Dolphins are reportedly considering. Just let me explain. In Justin Fields’ first three games of the season, he averaged 13.3 fantasy points. In Fields’ last two games – both games without Claypool in uniform – Fields averaged 30.4 points thanks to putting up 617 passing yards, eight touchdowns and 82 rushing yards. The obvious conclusion: Chase Claypool, in his own way, is the greatest lockdown defender in the NFL today. Glad we agree. So, look for Fields to keep things rolling in Week 6 against a Vikings team that could use a defensive standout of Claypool’s stature. So far this season the Vikings are allowing the third-highest quarterback rating to opposing QBs and quarterbacks facing Minnesota put up the eighth-most fantasy points per game (19.4). Give me Fields as Week 6’s QB 6.
Joe Burrow vs. Seattle
When Joe Burrow showed up to his game last week wearing a sweater a friend made for him, you knew he was going to have a big game. Because, let’s be real: if you wear homemade stuff, you have to perform well or people will laugh at you. (#RIPBigBallerBrand). Burrow finally looked healthy last week, scrambling and chucking it down the field (a season high 6.9 aDOT last week). This Sunday, he gets a Seattle defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards per game on the season, and three of the four quarterbacks they have faced have thrown for 320-plus yards. With Burrow throwing 40-plus times in three of his last four games, you can feel as comfortable as an old sweater starting him this week. And most every week going forward. He’s a Top 7 quarterback play in Week 6.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Indianapolis
Trevor Lawrence is back home from his two-week trip to London. Hopefully he got us some souvenirs. But if not, I will instead accept a gift of prevalent fantasy points this week against the Colts. Indianapolis is a bottom-10 defense in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks so far this season, and Lawrence put up 17.7 against them in Week 1 (his best fantasy game of the year). That wasn’t an accident – Lawrence always crushes the Colts. Dating back to last season, Lawrence is averaging 20.4 PPG in his last three games against Indy. He also has 25-plus rushing yards in three of his past four games. Lawrence is a Top 10 quarterback for me in Week 6.
Others receiving votes: Arizona is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season, so at least the Cardinals defense got the memo that the plan is to tank the season. This week the Cardinals play Matthew Stafford and the pass-happy Rams, who have the fourth-highest implied team total on the Week 6 slate. … Yes, I like Kirk Cousins this week against the Bears even with Justin Jefferson out. Every quarterback to face Chicago this season has put up at least 18 fantasy points and the Bears are allowing touchdown passes at the second-highest rate. … What was Sean Payton yelling at Russell Wilson late in Denver’s Week 5 loss to the Jets? I’m a bit of a lip-reader and I’m pretty sure it was this: “It’s okay, next week you get a Chiefs team that you averaged 24.6 points per game against last season in two matchups, thanks in no small part to running for 84 yards against them! And, hey, even though we’re losing, you have 18-plus fantasy points in three of your last four games, as well as multiple touchdown passes in four of our five games!” See? It was all positive. Nothing to see here. Everything is good in Denver.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 6
Deshaun Watson vs. San Francisco
So far this season, quarterbacks facing the 49ers have the second-lowest passer rating. The 49ers are allowing 11.1 PPG to quarterbacks and only one QB has scored more than 14 fantasy points against them. The 49ers also rank fourth in pressure rate. And with an Over/Under of just 37.5 points, the Browns have the second-lowest implied team total in Week 6. I mean, Deshaun Watson is already banged up heading into this game and didn’t practice Wednesday, as I write this column. In fact there’s a chance he doesn’t play this week or doesn’t finish the game and if that happens, I also would put his replacement this week, P.J. Walker, on the “Hate List.” Add to all that they are expecting bad weather this weekend in Cleveland and Watson is well outside my Top 15 for Week 6.
Geno Smith at Cincinnati
I’m not worried about Geno Smith’s injured knee heading into this game. I’m worried about pretty much everything else. The Bengals are a Top 10 pass defense this season and the only quarterbacks to score more than 13 fantasy points against the Bengals this season (Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson) both ran for more than 45 yards against them. (Okay, so maybe I’m a little worried about Smith’s knee, as I’ve heard that knees are useful for running.) The Bengals are allowing opposing QBs to complete just 60% of their passes against the, fifth-lowest overall, and it’s not like Seattle is running an Air Raid offense this season as it is. Smith has less than 16 fantasy points in three of his four games and only one game with more than one touchdown pass. Geno is merely a mid-tier QB2 this week.
Running Backs I Love in Week 6
Raheem Mostert at Carolina
With De’Von Achane and his 4.32 speed out, the Dolphins will have to rely on Raheem Mostert and his 4.34 speed. I know. Plodding. But I still think they’ll manage. Mostert has scored in four of five games this season and he’s put up at least 15 points in each of his last three games with at least 12 touches. Meanwhile, the Carolina Panthers have allowed eight rushing scores to running backs so far this season, tied for most in the league. Carolina has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to the position, as well. TL;DR: Carolina is bad, Mostert is good. I have Mostert at RB 6 this week.
Isiah Pacheco vs. Denver
Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins are out for the season. Austin Ekeler, Saquon Barkley and Aaron Jones have all missed time due to injury. Josh Jacobs and Rhamondre Stevenson are averaging less than three yards per carry. And now Achane and James Conner are hurt, too. The running back position has me in the fetal position. So it’s nice we at least have the continuing emergence of Isiah Pacheco. He now has 12-plus fantasy points and 17 or more touches in each of his last three games, including 75% of KC’s running back touches over the past two weeks. On Thursday night, Pacheco gets a dreadful Denver Broncos defense that is allowing league highs in rushing yards per game (164) and YPC to running backs (6.1). The Broncos have also allowed 22-plus points to a back in four of their five games. Pacheco gets them Thursday night and then again 17 days later in Week 8. Oh, baby. In these dark running back times, you better believe I’ll take the Kansas City offense giving us a true RB 1. Pacheco is a Top 10 running back in Week 6.
D’Andre Swift at New York Jets
Lots and lots of football articles have been written recently about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, as websites try to capitalize on her incredible popularity and interest in their relationship by trying to increase the “SEO” or search engine optimization. The idea is that the more they mention Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce, the higher they will rank when people search for news about Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce. I, for one, find it to be a cheap way to get unearned clicks. I am, however, above that. As a result, this paragraph is only about D’Andre Swift. D’Andre Swift, who is not related to Taylor Swift, has four games in a row with at least 17 touches. Part of the reason D’Andre Swift is getting so many touches is his growing usage in the Philadelphia Eagles' passing game. The Eagles are a team that Jason Kelce plays on. Jason Kelce’s brother is Travis Kelce, who is rumored to be in a relationship with Taylor Swift. But again, this is not about them. If you are looking for news about Taylor Swift, who has a new movie coming out, then you should look elsewhere. Because this is about D’Andre Swift, whose passing game usage through the first three weeks of the season was just 8%, but over the past two weeks has shot up to 14.7%. Swift (D’Andre, not Taylor) also has a good matchup this week against a Jets defense that is bottom-10 in the league this season in fantasy points allowed to running backs. The Jets are a team that Taylor Swift saw in person when she went to see the Jets play the Chiefs and Travis Kelce. But again this is not about search terms like Taylor Swift or Travis Kelce but merely about the fact that increased usage and a good matchup gets D’Andre Swift on the Week 6 Love List. That’s right. Time for everyone to become #Swifties.
Others receiving votes: I am ready to boldly state that James Cook will improve this week on the minus-4 rushing yards he had in Week 5. You heard me. You’ve come to the right place for hot takes. In fact, I’m saying that Cook will actually go well into positive yardage against a Giants defense that has allowed the second-most rush yards to running backs this season, as well as 5.3 YPC to the position. Cook also has 25-plus receiving yards in three of his past four games. … Denver’s Jaleel McLaughlin has 193 scrimmage yards on 22 touches over the past two weeks and has scored in both of those games. “But, Matthew, you fool! Denver is an 11-point dog to the Chiefs. Why would I play a Denver running back in this game?” Because McLaughlin has a double-digit target share in each of the last two games, so he'll get work even if Denver is trailing big and even if Javonte Williams is active. Who’s the fool now, fool?! … When James Conner left last week due to injury, Emari Demercado played 100% of the running back snaps. I know in sports we like to talk about giving 110%, but I’ve run the numbers and 100% is the most you can do a thing. So that’s pretty good. We will see some Keontay Ingram, but for deep and/or semi-desperate teams in PPR leagues, Demercado is definitely the guy you want right now in Arizona’s backfield. Not convinced? Then try this: the Cardinals are 7-point underdogs this week and Keontay Ingram has zero third down snaps and only six routes run all season. There. I hope you are now 110% convinced.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 6
Jonathan Taylor at Jacksonville
I love that Jonathan Taylor is back playing football, but I hate this matchup and the fact that the Colts need to ease him back into the lineup. Taylor played just 10 total snaps last week, with Zack Moss getting 80% of the running back snaps. And with Moss putting up triple digits in total yards in three of his four games, it’s not like the Colts are itching to banish him to the bench. Now for the bad matchup part … Jacksonville is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this season and so far this season only one back has managed to put up even 15 fantasy points on the Jags. Love Taylor long-term but he’s merely a touchdown dependent FLEX play in Week 6.
Miles Sanders at Miami
Miles Sanders now has back-to-back weeks with a snap rate below 50%. I don’t mean to paint with too broad a brush here with my analysis, but not playing much in an offense that is bad rarely leads to big fantasy production. Weird, right? And that’s not the only negative trend for Sanders. He has fewer than 35 rushing yards in three straight games, and is now averaging just 3.6 yards per touch on the season. Not 3.6 yards per carry, per touch. Yikes. That could be why Sanders’ target share is just 6% over the past two weeks. So, yeah, Sanders is not likely to see a ton of work in the passing game if/when Carolina falls behind in a game in which they’re 13.5-point underdogs. All of this to say: Miles Sanders is outside my Top 30 backs for Week 6.
Jerome Ford vs. San Francisco
The Browns were on a bye last week, which means Jerome Ford was on fantasy benches. Save yourself some finger and thumb-swiping energy by keeping him there for Week 6. San Francisco is allowing the fewest rushing yards per game to running backs this season and teams facing the 49ers are averaging a league-low 11.8 running back carries per game. Plus, it’s not like Ford has been doing a flawless Nick Chubb impression since he took on the job. In Ford’s two games as a starter, he is averaging 2.3 YPC and has finished with less than 30 rushing yards in each game. In a game where Cleveland may have to use a backup QB, this feels like a low scoring, ugly game you want to avoid if possible.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 6
Puka Nacua vs. Arizona
So much for the concern over Cooper Kupp’s return cutting heavily into Puka Nacua’s production. In Kupp’s first game back last week, Nacua played 100% of snaps and saw a 32% target share. (And thank goodness. I don’t know how I would have felt about my little Cooper Kupp if he had ruined my little Puka Kupp.) Considering the sustained usage – and the fact that the Rams have the fourth-highest implied team total this week (see Stafford, Matthew) – Nacua is in line for another top 10 day against an Arizona defense that allows the third-highest catch rate to opposing wide receivers. Arizona also ranks bottom-five in both receptions and yards allowed to wide receivers.
Adam Thielen at Miami
Ideally, a 33-year-old wide receiver wouldn’t be one of the lone bright spots on a young, rebuilding team starting the No. 1 overall pick at quarterback. But alas … beggars, choosers, etc. Thielen now has four straight games with seven or more receptions and, over that same stretch, is averaging 11 targets per game. He also has one red zone target in three of those games. This week, Thielen faces a Miami team that is tied for the second-most receptions allowed to the slot, which is where 71% of Thielen’s catches have come this season. Carolina is also a two touchdown underdog and the expectation here is that they’ll be throwing early and often against the Fins. I don’t know how long it’ll last, but let’s hear it for old guys still getting it done, he said looking in the mirror. I have Thielen as a Top 12 receiver in Week 6.
Calvin Ridley vs. Indianapolis
The Colts rank bottom-10 in both fantasy points and yards allowed to wide receivers this season. And wide receivers who have seen seven-plus targets against the Colts this season are averaging 19.5 PPG. That projects well for Calvin Ridley, who has seven or more targets in four of his five games this season. And, really, it’s more than a projection because we’ve seen him against the Colts already this season. Ridley put up an 8-101-1 line on Indianapolis on 11 targets back in Week 1. Fast-forward to Week 6, Calvin Ridley is inside my Top 15 wide receivers.
Logan Thomas at Atlanta
For years, people have made fun of me for my love of Logan Thomas. Well, who’s laughing now?! I am! I am laughing. And I am laughing MANIACALLY! (Please pause reading for 12 minutes while I complete my maniacal laughter. Okay, all done. Thanks.) Logan Thomas put up 20.7 fantasy points last week against the Bears, going 9-77-1 on 11 targets. He now has double-digit fantasy points in two of his last three games and is TE 6 this season in PPG. (Pause reading again for more of my maniacal laughter, but this time I’ll do it for only 11 minutes. Okay, done again. Thank you!). With Future Hall-of-Famer Sam Howell constantly under duress he looks to get rid of it often in the middle of the field which also helps Thomas’ target share. Look for Thomas to have another productive game this week against the Falcons, who allow the second-most fantasy PPG to tight ends. Thomas is my TE 12.
Others receiving votes: In the three games that Jakobi Meyers has played with Jimmy Garoppolo this season, he’s averaging 21.7 PPG with 10-plus targets and seven-plus receptions in all three. This week Meyers gets the Patriots in what we’ll call the Jakobi Meyers Revenge Game. (Although taking revenge against this Patriots team feels a little bit like bullying. Don’t go too hard on them, Jakobi!) … Justin Jefferson’s absence vacates 10 targets per game in Minnesota's offense, and Jordan Addison should be the biggest beneficiary. By the way, Addison is already tied for the league lead with six end zone targets and, in his four games with five-plus targets this season, he is averaging 15.5 PPG. Addison should be in line for that or more against a Bears defense that is tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. … In the three games in which Gardner Minshew has played the majority of snaps, Josh Downs has a 25% target share and 18 receptions. Downs goes with Minshew almost as good as a mustache does. … Denver allows the highest catch rate to wide receivers, while, as I mentioned above in the AMA, Rashee Rice leads all qualified wide receivers in targets per route run. Rice also leads all Chiefs with eight red zone targets this season. … Philadelphia allows the third-highest catch rate to tight ends. This week the Eagles face Tyler Conklin, who has four straight games with five-plus targets, as well as 50-plus receiving yards in three of those games.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 6
Deebo Samuel at Cleveland
Over the last two weeks, Deebo Samuel has just three total targets and a 6.5% target share. Maybe that was due, in part, to Samuel being banged up and being a decoy and both games being blowouts. Maybe. But whatever the reason, how comfortable do you feel with a guy averaging 1.5 targets over the past two games? Do you feel more or less comfortable knowing that this week Deebo is playing in Cleveland, where 20-35 mph winds are expected, there’s a 65% chance of rain and 49ers-Browns has a 37.5 Over/Under, lowest on the slate? How comfortable do you feel knowing that Cleveland has allowed the fewest receptions, yards and fantasy points to receivers? Or knowing that only one wide receiver has put up even double-digit fantasy points on the Browns so far this season? I don’t like any of this. In fact, I hate it. Perhaps I will make a list of hate and put Deebo Samuel on it for Week 6. Okay, done. You likely have to start Samuel but certainly lower expectations for him this week. I have Deebo as merely WR 25, the lowest I’ve had him all year.
Amari Cooper vs. San Francisco
Only one wide receiver has scored 10-plus points on San Francisco this season on fewer than seven receptions. Are we really counting on Amari Cooper to catch a ton of passes against the 49ers? Also, if I know my meteorology, those winds and rain I mentioned for Deebo Samuel? They are likely to occur when the Browns have the ball, too. Add into it some uncertainty around Deshaun Watson’s health and, yeah … Amari Cooper is outside my Top 25 wide receivers.
Terry McLaurin at Atlanta
Atlanta allows the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. That alone isn’t enough to turn me off of McLaurin for this week. But when you add in that McLaurin has fewer than 55 receiving yards in four of his last five games … and that last week he had a season-low 10% target share … and that he has just one game on the season with more than six targets … and that he’ll draw the A.J. Terrell shadow in this game? I am sufficiently turned off. He’s outside my Top 30 wideouts this week.
Michael Thomas at Houston
Two first names, always a crowd-pleaser. Except the only crowds Michael Thomas is pleasing this season are people who bet the under on all of his props. In every game so far this season he has less than 70 receiving yards and he is averaging career lows in catch rate and yards per target. It’s unlikely any of that turns for the better this week against a Texans team that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers.
