Matchup: Broncos @ Chiefs
Thursday Night Football
Denver @ Kansas City
Playing on a short week after managing 219 total yards and 12 offensive points in Week 1 -- all on field goals -- the Broncos head to Arrowhead as three-point dogs in a game with a low Vegas over-under (42). Denver's team total is just 19.5 points. Of utmost concern for the Broncos' offense is the play of 39-year-old Peyton Manning, who looked shell shocked and frail down the stretch of last season, then again this preseason, and yet again in Week 1. Including January's playoff loss to Indianapolis, Manning is 127-of-207 passing (61.4%) for 1,376 yards (6.65 YPA) and a 4:7 TD-to-INT ratio over his last six games. He's hit 300 passing yards once since mid-November of 2014. While picking it up is probably within Manning's going-forward range of outcomes, nothing in his recent play suggests Peyton can be taken for granted as a fantasy QB1 in a difficult matchup with a low-scoring projection. ... C.J. Anderson was Denver's clear-cut Week 1 feature back, playing 74% of the snaps, rushing 12 times, and seeing eight targets. Unfortunately, Anderson was ineffective on his carries (2.42 YPC) and got spelled on a lengthy late-game drive where Ronnie Hillman piled up seven rushing attempts, giving him a game total of 12, the same as Anderson. Anderson also got a bit dinged up, tweaking a toe and rolling an ankle. Hillman's out-performance of Anderson since the preseason could eventually become a concern if it continues, but for now most signs point to Anderson's job being safe. On Thursday night, Anderson gets an above-average matchup against a Chiefs defense that yielded 92 yards on 20 runs (4.60 YPC) to Texans RBs Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, and Chris Polk last week.
Manning's Week 1 target distribution: Emmanuel Sanders 12; Demaryius Thomas 11; Anderson 8; Jordan Norwood 5; Owen Daniels 2; Andre Caldwell and Virgil Green 1; Cody Latimer 0. ... Demaryius turned in a relatively slow opener (7-60), but was force fed on bubble screens and is a solid bet for a bounce-back game against a Kansas City defense that's still missing top CB Sean Smith (suspension) and coughed up a 9-98-2 number to Texans No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins in Week 1. Expect Demaryius to frequently take on Chiefs nickel back Jamell Fleming, who plays RCB in sub-packages and had an especially difficult time with Hopkins last week. ... The Chiefs also yielded lots of combined production to Nate Washington (6-105) and Cecil Shorts (4-57) last week, which should bode well for Sanders. Coming off an opener where he led Denver in targets -- and Broncos tight ends played minimal roles -- Sanders remains an every-week fantasy WR2. On Thursday night, Sanders will run most of his routes at rookie LCB Marcus Peters and RCB/slot corner Phillip Gaines. ... Daniels and Green were surprisingly silent on Opening Day. Daniels played 87% of Denver's offensive snaps, but was only targeted twice, catching both for five yards. Green logged a 39% snap rate and saw one target, blocking on 73% of his plays. Daniels is the superior fantasy option, but will probably be a TD-dependent, low-end TE1 all season. ... Disappointing Latimer (4 snaps) played behind situational slot receiver Norwood (51 snaps) and special teamer Caldwell (14) in last week's win over the Ravens. On what is now a low-volume passing team, Broncos backup receivers can be ignored in fantasy.
Whereas Denver's offense stunk up the joint, Wade Phillips' defense looked ferocious in Week 1 against Baltimore. Pro Football Focus charted Joe Flacco as "under pressure" on 65% of his dropbacks, and the Ravens' offense was held under 200 total yards for the first time since November of 2013. While the Chiefs' offense was sharp in last Sunday's 27-20 win at Houston, keep in mind they got 14 points off of Brian Hoyer red-zone turnovers and struggled to run the ball. In a projected low-scoring affair, expect Alex Smith to come back to Earth following his three-TD opener. He's best approached as a high-end fantasy QB2. ... An element missing from Jamaal Charles' 2014 season was the pass-game volume he experienced in 2013, when Charles led all NFL running backs in targets and receiving yards. In the Chiefs' Week 1 victory, Charles was utilized much more along the lines of 2013, piling up eight targets and a 5-46-1 stat line in the air. That kind of receiving involvement will raise Charles' fantasy floor and ceiling. Even if he has another slow rushing day against a Broncos team that last year ranked top three in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and limited Ravens backs to 73 scoreless yards on 23 carries (3.17 YPC) last Sunday, Charles can compensate with all-purpose playmaking ability. He's a high-end RB1 every week. ... Knile Davis played 26% of the Chiefs' Week 1 snaps, seeing a slight bump in usage because Kansas City was in the lead all game. He still finished with only 28 yards on seven touches. Davis is an excellent handcuff, but he lacks standalone value.
Smith's Week 1 target distribution: Jeremy Maclin 9; Charles 8; Travis Kelce 6; Albert Wilson 3; De'Anthony Thomas 2. ... Maclin was more active than his Week 1 stat line (5-52) showed, in large part because he had a 39-yard catch narrowly overturned by replay after whipping Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph. On Thursday night, the sledding will be tougher against stud Broncos CBs Aqib Talib and Chris Harris, who combined to limit Ravens No. 1 receiver Steve Smith Sr. to two catches for 13 yards on seven targets last week. Maclin is an every-week fantasy starter in his new digs, but he might be best viewed as a WR3 as opposed to a WR2 on Thursday night. ... Regrettably, I doubted Kelce as a Week 1 daily-fantasy play because I believed he'd end up spending a ton of time "help" blocking J.J. Watt. Kelce did -- he even blocked Watt one-on-one in several instances -- but it didn't matter. Kelce went berserk (6-106-2), parlaying a Texans blown coverage into a 42-yard touchdown bomb and mercilessly destroying defenders after the catch. Denver also boasts imposing front-seven personnel, but Kelce should stay locked into fantasy lineups as a top-five tight end. It should be noted that PFF charted Kelce with 28 routes run in Week 1; he topped that number just five times all of last season. It also can't hurt that last year's Broncos permitted the seventh most fantasy points in the league to tight ends, including the second most catches. ... Wilson operated as the Chiefs' No. 2 receiver in Week 1, playing 81% of the offensive snaps. He is clearly ahead of Thomas (24%), Jason Avant (19%), and Chris Conley (6%). Wilson may tease with a big game or three over the course of the season, but generating consistent fantasy productivity behind Charles, Maclin, and Kelce is probably unrealistic.
Score Prediction: Broncos 21, Chiefs 20
