How many completions does Bo Nix need to break Mac Jones’ all-time record?
When you talk about college football at a baseline level, the only stats that matter are wins and losses. We can all agree on that.
However, if you are like me, and you enjoy the numbers below the surface, and the records that are held by different teams and players throughout history, then this article is for you.
The upcoming Fiesta Bowl between the Oregon Ducks and Liberty Flames could be an incredibly important game. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has a chance to etch his name in college football history.
One of Nix’s best attributes during his time in Eugene has been his accuracy, and knowing when to force it or not. This is reflected in his completion percentage, which was the best in the nation in 2023, and among the best in the nation in 2022.
With five games in 2023 completing more than 80% of his passes, and nine games completing more than 75% of his passes, Nix was clearly in line to break the record for all-time single-season completion percentage, set by Alabama’s Mac Jones back in 2020. However, an outing in the Pac-12 title game where he completed only 61.8% of his passes dropped Nix out of the lead.
With one more game, though, the Oregon QB still has a chance to get back to the top spot and cement his place in college football history. While he certainly isn’t as concerned with the number as we are, it is interesting to note what needs to happen for him to get the record.
Let’s break down the math:
Where Things Stand
Before we get into the numbers, let’s first take a look at where things stand with Nix, and how they compare to Mac Jones in his record-breaking 2020 season.
2023 Bo Nix (Pre Bowl Game): 336-for-435 (77.241%)
2020 Mac Jones: 311-for-402 (77.363%)
Normally, you wouldn’t utilize so many decimals when analyzing completion percentage, but this is incredibly important stuff that we are doing over here at Ducks Wire.
Now, going forward, it’s hard to predict exactly what needs to happen, simply because we are unsure how much Nix is going to play in the Fiesta Bowl. Will he throw 10 passes before walking off into the sunset? Will he throw 15 or 20 passes? Will he play the entire game? Based on the answer, we have a different target goal for completions, obviously.
To help solve for these variables, I’ve broken down how many passes Nix needs to complete in order to break the record at different levels of attempts. Let’s dive in.
With 10 Pass Attempts...
With 10 pass attempts…Nix needs 9 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 9 completions: 345-for-445 (77.53%)
Completion Percentage w/ 8 completions: 344-for-445 (77.30%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: Obviously, with a small sample size, Nix needs to be almost perfect in order to get his completion percentage over the required mark. I have a feeling that he will have more than 10 pass attempts in this game. They may play him the first half and pull him, but he can surely put up more than 10 in two quarters.
With 15 Pass Attempts...
(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
With 15 pass attempts…Nix needs 13 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 13 completions: 349-for-450 (77.55%)
Completion Percentage w/ 12 completions: 348-for-450 (77.33%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: 15 pass attempts is getting closer to the range that I think we will end up seeing from Nix, and that 13 number is still a bit daunting. It wouldn’t be the first time we’ve ever seen Nix go 13-for-15, but it is asking a lot of the receivers to be near perfect.
With 20 Pass Attempts...
Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
With 20 pass attempts…Nix needs 17 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 17 completions: 353-for-455 (77.58%)
Completion Percentage w/ 16 completions: 352-for-455 (77.362%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: If I were a betting man, I would say that Nix ends up throwing about 20 times in this game, maybe a bit more like 22 or so. 17-for-20- is pretty elite — 85% — but we’ve seen him complete 84% of his passes or more a total of four times this year, so it’s not crazy to think he can do it again.
With 25 Pass Attempts...
Craig Strobeck-USA TODAY Sports
With 25 pass attempts…Nix needs 20 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 20 completions: 356-for-460 (77.39%)
Completion Percentage w/ 19 completions: 355-for-460 (77.17%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: I think an outing of 20-for-25 is incredibly doable for Nix. I personally would be bordering on surprised if he ended up throwing more than 25 passes in this game because I don’t think he will play long into the second half. However, 20-for-25 is 80% completion, which is something we’ve see him do many times before.
With 30 Pass Attempts...
With 30 pass attempts…Nix needs 24 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 24 completions: 360-for-465 (77.42%)
Completion Percentage w/ 23 completions: 359-for-465 (77.20%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: 24-for-30? That’s incredibly doable for the Oregon QB. The only question for me is whether or not he will be in the game long enough to attempt 30 passes.
With 35 Pass Attempts...
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
With 35 pass attempts…Nix needs 28 completions to break the record.
Completion Percentage w/ 28 completions: 364-for-470 (77.45%)
Completion Percentage w/ 27 completions: 363-for-470 (77.23%)
Mac Jones 2020 Record: (77.363%)
Analysis: This one seems the most unlikely to me. I would be shocked if Nix ended up passing 35 times in this game, simply because I don’t expect him to be on the field for long enough. Nix has thrown for 35 or more passes only four times this season.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, I think it is incredibly possible for Nix to break the Mac Jones record but he is going to need to be on top of his game. In reality, I expect him to play the first two and a half quarters and be pulled midway through the third, likely with around 20-25 pass attempts. Assuming that’s the case, Nix would need to have at most 5 incompletions. It’s very doable, in my opinion.
