LSU to CFP? Vols to Peach? 5 SEC football thoughts after preseason Top 25 reveal | Toppmeyer
The USA TODAY AFCA coaches poll provides a glimpse at what college football will look like after the SEC and Big Ten expand following this season.
Six SEC teams and four from the Big Ten are ranked in the preseason Top 25.
But if you count future SEC members Texas and Oklahoma and log Southern Cal, Washington and Oregon for the Big Ten, those numbers increase to eight ranked SEC teams and seven ranked Big Ten teams.
To the victors of realignment go the spoils.
Here are five thoughts I have following the Top 25 reveal:
1. Four College Football Playoff teams, two conferences?
Twice through nine years, the SEC has claimed half of the CFP spots. In the 2017 and ’21 seasons, both Alabama and Georgia qualified. Last season, the Big Ten seized two playoff spots, with Michigan and Ohio State earning bids. The ACC also achieved the feat in 2020, when Clemson and Notre Dame qualified in the Irish's lone season competing as a conference member.
Never, though, have all four spots been divvied up between the SEC and Big Ten. That’s on the table this season, as these rankings show.
Peep the top five: No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Alabama, No. 4 Ohio State, No. 5 LSU.
I consider Michigan and Alabama a smidge overrated — I’d rank the Buckeyes No. 2 — but Michigan joins Georgia as having a cupcake schedule.
The trouble for Alabama and LSU is the likelihood of the SEC West winner facing Georgia in the SEC Championship. No two-loss team has ever made the CFP. So being undefeated entering Atlanta will be important to the SEC West winner's playoff chances.
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Despite the rankings favoring the SEC and Big Ten, I predict three conferences will be represented in the playoff. Who will crash the SEC/B1G party? Monitor No. 8 Florida State or No. 9 Clemson.
For months, I’ve labeled LSU and FSU as my CFP dark horses. With a No. 5 ranking, I’m not sure the Tigers are a dark horse, anymore.
2. LSU-FSU, Alabama-Texas highlight September
On the topic of FSU and LSU, those teams play Week 1 on a Sunday night in Orlando. A season-opening defeat isn’t a playoff eliminator, but it would leave no margin for error. That top-10 clash is the best matchup of the opening weekend.
No. 12 Texas playing at No. 3 Alabama will highlight Week 2.
Nick Saban hasn’t lost a September game since Ole Miss beat the Tide in 2015, but Alabama was fortunate to win in Austin last September.
The Longhorns returned more production than Alabama, including quarterback Quinn Ewers.
Alabama will have a new starting quarterback. Better work out the kinks in the opener, because the challenge gets real against Texas.
3. Tennessee has path to another New Year’s Six
Tennessee sustained significant departures, headlined by star quarterback Hendon Hooker, to its best team in more than 20 years.
But a glance at this Top 25, combined with a peek at UT’s schedule, suggests the Vols should contend for a second straight New Year’s Six bowl. If betting lines were set today, No. 10 Tennessee would be favored in all but two games (at Alabama and vs. Georgia).
The only other Top 25 opponent on UT's schedule is No. 25 Texas A&M, which will come to Neyland Stadium in October.
Does that add up to a Peach or Cotton Bowl trip? Maybe.
The trick to returning to a New Year’s Six will be avoiding a defensive disaster against a mid-grade opponent. That’s what happened in Tennessee’s loss to South Carolina last season.
4. Overcorrection on Texas A&M?
The Aggies had no business a year ago being ranked preseason No. 6. That team was too unproven, too reliant on youth. It flopped its way to a 5-7 record.
But A&M securing the No. 25 spot in these rankings is an overcorrection. The Aggies are more experienced and blessed with talent. In fact, Texas A&M returns more production than any other SEC team, based on ESPN’s metrics.
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Look strictly through the lens of this season and ignore the dud that was 2022, and A&M should be ranked at least within the top 20.
5. Ole Miss and South Carolina face tough road to finishing in Top 25
I can make the case that Ole Miss and South Carolina should be improved after each finished 8-5 in 2022. The Rebels made notable upgrades via the transfer portal, and the Gamecocks found their stride behind Spencer Rattler and a pass-happy offense throughout last year's final three games.
I struggle to make that case, though, if I closely examine either team’s schedule. Each will play five opponents in the preseason Top 25.
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No. 22 Ole Miss joins Auburn as the only teams that must face No. 1 Georgia, No. 3 Alabama and No. 5 LSU. Brace for impact. The Rebels also will play No. 23 Tulane and the No. 25 Aggies.
South Carolina’s opponents include: No. 20 North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Clemson.
Ole Miss and South Carolina may be better, but a tougher schedule means the record may not show it.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: 5 SEC football thoughts after Top 25 coaches poll reveal
