Louisville football has 5 regular-season games left. How many will it win? Our projections
After starting 6-0, No. 21 Louisville experienced defeat for the first time this season, losing Oct. 14 at Pitt.
The slip against the Panthers dropped the Cardinals (6-1, 3-1 ACC) from first to fourth in the ACC standings, lessening their chances of making the ACC championship game. They can help their case by winning out, and that begins with a home game against a one-loss, 17th-ranked Duke team on Oct. 28.
ESPN ranked Louisville’s remaining schedule 62nd nationally and 11th in the ACC, projecting a 9.3-2.9 record with league games left against Duke, Virginia Tech, Virginia and Miami. The two Virginia schools are a combined 4-9. The Hurricanes started conference play with losses against Georgia Tech and North Carolina.
Louisville, already bowl eligible in its first year with Jeff Brohm as coach, is eyeing the program’s seventh double-digit win season, but can the Cardinals do it?
Here’s a final schedule projection:
Oct. 28: No. 17 Duke
The Blue Devils are arguably Louisville’s toughest opponent this season. Duke’s lone loss was against Notre Dame, 21-14. The Blue Devils rebounded with a 24-3 win over N.C. State and won without injured quarterback Riley Leonard, who is still day to day. The dual-threat junior quarterback has been key to Duke's success, with 912 passing yards, 326 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.
Duke’s offense also is led by running back Jordan Waters, who has nine rushing TDs and averages 6.6 yards per carry. The Blue Devils' defense ranks 16th in the country and second in the ACC. The unit is allowing 298.5 yards and 9.8 points per game. Louisville's offense struggled against Pitt without star running back Jawhar Jordan. With Jordan's status unknown, this could be another loss.
Nov. 4: Virginia Tech
The loss to Pitt taught the Cardinals to not let big games affect them the following week. After playing Duke, the Cardinals will see how much they learned when they face the Hokies. Despite starting 1-3 in Brent Pry’s second season as coach, Virginia Tech has won two of its last three games and is two spots behind Louisville in the ACC standings.
The Hokies have five receivers with at least 200 yards, led by Jaylin Lane with 341 yards and five touchdowns on 21 catches. Louisville hasn’t been as strong defending the pass and could be down a starting cornerback depending on Jarvis Brownlee’s status. U of L has been able to pressure opposing quarterbacks and make timely plays down the stretch, though.
Virginia Tech’s defense is in the lower half of the ACC and ranks 43rd nationally, allowing 24.71 points and 341.6 yards per game. Given Louisville’s playmakers and playing at home, the Cardinals, who average 34.1 points and 464 yards per game (fourth and third most in the ACC, respectively), should have enough to earn the win.
Nov. 9: Virginia
The Cavaliers ended a five-game losing streak, defeating William & Mary in Week 7. Virginia has lost to N.C. State and Boston College, both of whom Louisville has defeated.
Virginia’s defense is allowing 31.8 points per game, the worst in the ACC. Its offense also is last in the conference, averaging 22.3 points per outing. Though the Cardinals shouldn’t underestimate any opponent, they should beat Virginia handily.
Nov. 18: at Miami
After the Hurricanes started 0-2 in ACC play, this game is less daunting. Louisville has struggled on the road, though. Its three wins away from L&N Stadium have been by seven or fewer points. Miami was 3-1 at home before its game Saturday against Clemson.
The Hurricanes’ secondary didn't play well against North Carolina. It yielded 132 yards and three touchdowns on six receptions to Tar Heels receiver Tez Walker in a 41-31 loss. Louisville should be able to exploit Miami's secondary, too. Of players who have caught at least 10 passes, the Cardinals have eight pass catchers who are averaging at least 11 yards per catch.
If Louisville defeats Miami at home, that might make up for the bad loss at Pitt.
Nov. 25: Kentucky
Though the Governor’s Cup resumed after Brohm’s playing days at Louisville, he knows the importance of the contest, especially because the Cardinals haven’t beaten Kentucky since 2017. The teams have gone 5-5 in the last 10 meetings, and the Wildcats lead the all-time series, 19-15.
It should be a battle of running backs, with Jordan and Kentucky’s Ray Davis among the best in the nation. Kentucky, which also didn't play Saturday, has back-to-back losses after winning its first five games. The Wildcats' offense ranks 92nd nationally, 66th in rushing and 102nd in passing. The Cardinals’ total defense is No. 22 nationally. The unit has had success defending the run and has eight interceptions.
This might be the year Louisville snaps its skid against Kentucky.
Final record projection: 10-2
Louisville has the talent to win 10 games this season. Though the Cardinals’ loss to Pitt was unexpected, U of L still has a chance for one of the best seasons in program history.
Reach Louisville football, women's basketball and baseball beat writer Alexis Cubit at acubit@gannett.com and follow her on X at @Alexis_Cubit.
This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Louisville football: Projecting win total for Jeff Brohm in Year 1
