A known name, analysis says RB Dalvin Cook wouldn’t help Cowboys
Before Dalvin Cook was even released by the Vikings, he was getting linked with Dallas. The Cowboys, having recently parted ways with their own long-time franchise running back, have shown a renewed appreciation for the running game and could be in the market for a veteran runner.
One of the alleged reasons the Cowboys divorced their previous play-caller was because of head coach Mike McCarthy’s desire to be more balanced on offense. With McCarthy now calling plays in 2023, he can be as run-heavy as he wants – the only problem is without Ezekiel Elliott on the roster anymore, Dallas is short on proven weaponry.
Tony Pollard, the new RB1 in Dallas, is more than capable of headlining a unit. But Pollard has never carried the ball more than 200 times in a single season so betting the offensive identity on his ability to significantly increase his workload may be a bigger gamble than McCarthy is willing to take.
It should be of no surprise when Cook’s release became official on June 9, the rumors in Dallas began to ramp up.
It wasn’t long ago the 27-year-old was considered one of the top RBs in the NFL. On the books for roughly $14 million against the salary cap, Minnesota must have determined his money was better used elsewhere. Hence Cook’s release.
The question is how much does Cook have left in the tank and would he be a good fit with the Cowboys?
How far has Cook slipped?
After posting a tremendous 1,557 yard season (2020) in which he tallied 16 rushing touchdowns in just 14 games, Cook has cooled off. He hasn’t cleared 1,200 yards in either of the last two seasons and his yards per carry average has been in steady decline.
Ted Nguyen at The Athletic recently dove into the advanced numbers to determine exactly how much Cook has declined. His data confirmed what many have seen on film and helps set the market and expectations for the former Pro Bowler.
Using Telemetry Sports, Nguyen found Cooks fell off significantly in recent seasons. Known for his ability to rip off big runs, Cooks fell from fourth in rushing explosiveness in 2021 to 41st in 2022. The decline is somewhat understandable because his play speed has dropped in recent seasons as well, going from 12th in 2020, to 28th in 2021, to 30th in 2022
His elusiveness score also declined. In that impressive 2020 season, Cooks ranked eighth in elusiveness but dropped to 34th in 2021 and then came in at 28th in 2022.
Dalvin Cook isn’t the man he used to be. In 2020 he was No. 2 in RYOE but last year he’s all the way down at 35. FWIW: check out No. 27 on the list 👀 pic.twitter.com/hrGc2buA5B
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) June 11, 2023
Rushing yards over expected (RYOE) uses player tracking data to determine expected yards given the blocking and positioning of defenders. Based on that, Cook should have averaged 5.12 y/c in 2022 but he only actually produced 4.39 y/c.
With an average deficit of -0.75 RYOE, Cook ranked 35th in the NFL last season. For anyone wondering, that’s eight spots lower than the man the Cowboys just released (Elliott’s RYOE was -0.47).
His recent RYOE is a far cry from 2020 when Cook’s +0.73 RYOE ranked second in the NFL and it overall marks a fairly significant decline in production and efficiency.
Looking at the numbers it’s clear Cook has declined as a player. He’s dropped from top-10 in nearly every category to middle of the pack (or lower). He’s still a legit NFL RB but it’s difficult to make the case he’s anything more than average at this point.
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Would Cook be an asset with the Cowboys?
With Pollard the clear top dog, the Cowboys wouldn’t need someone like Cook to step in and be his 2020 self. They would just want someone to help carry the load alongside Pollard. They would want someone to help keep Pollard fresh and someone to fortify the unit as a whole.
Since Elliott is gone, the Cowboys are missing a certain tough-guy element to their ground game. They don’t have a clear short-yardage option nor do they have another reliable pass-protector. If they thought someone like Cook could be an improvement in these areas (over their current stable of Malik Davis, Ronald Jones and Deuce Vaughn), he might make sense.
But the 5-foot-10, 210-pound Cook has never been the type of RB Elliott was. Cook was always a game-breaker, more in the mold of Pollard. He’s also never been a very strong pass protector. With pass blocking grades of 47.3, 52.7, 45.5 and 46.5; Pro Football Focus hasn’t graded Cook’s pass protection positively since 2018.
Even his durability has been a question as of late. Cook has dislocated his shoulder in each of the past two seasons and doesn’t appear to be the tough veteran runner the Cowboys need to replace Elliott in the lineup.
It’s possible a smaller role on offense would make Cook a more efficient runner. But in 2022, Cook dropped to just 15.5 attempts per game (his lowest since 2018) and still showed a steady decline in most major efficiency categories.
Based on everything discussed, Cook’s fit on the Cowboys isn’t a great one. He doesn’t fit any of the roles vacated by Elliott and largely appears to be a less efficient redundancy to Pollard.
Dallas would be better served seeing what they have in their current group and/or keeping an eye open for a short-yardage specialist. In much the same way, Cook would be better served finding a team that already employs a bruiser at RB, which frees him for more change-of-pace opportunities and less overall contact.
It’s just not a good fit.
