What to know about CSU basketball’s mini losing skid and the path in a loaded Mountain West

Note: Despite the closure of CSU Tuesday, Jan. 16, the Rams' game against Air Force at 7 p.m. at Moby Arena is still on and open to fans.

Expectations rise as success climbs.

With that comes a bigger magnifying glass on every game.

Each result is scrutinized closer. Wins feel bigger and losses feel more damaging.

The Colorado State men’s basketball team found the negative side of the increased volume of reactions when it lost back-to-back road games early in Mountain West play.

The defeats at Utah State and Boise State have knocked the Rams down early in the league standings, but what is the reality of the situation?

Time for alarm bells? Not quite. It's time to bounce back and improve for CSU (13-3, 1-2 MW), but it’s also not panic time.

Here’s what to know about what went wrong, what’s next, where the Rams stand and what to expect from the Mountain West.

What went wrong in losses

OK, so what happened in the two losses? Somewhat ironically, it was more offensive than defensive. The Rams average more than 80 points per game and are ranked No. 17 in the nation in offensive efficiency by KenPom.

But in the back-to-back losses, CSU averaged just 65 points per game, including a 58-point showing at Boise State. It was the lowest-scoring game of the season for CSU.

The Rams shot 12-for-40 (30%) from 3-point range in the two games, a big drop in average. The Rams were sloppy with the ball (a season-high 16 turnovers vs. Boise State) and struggled to create their good looks consistently.

“It’s harder to get easy shots (in conference play). I thought at times maybe the aggression was we weren’t stubborn enough to continue to work to get great shots, maybe get ourselves to the foul line, maybe get the ball to the paint a little bit more,” CSU coach Niko Medved said about the Boise State game specifically.

It’s also common that role players are better at home than on the road and CSU’s depth didn’t shine in the two games away from home.

The good news is CSU’s history this season and through Medved’s tenure suggests offensive struggles will not last long. It’s fixable.

“Honestly, our offense wasn’t great the whole road trip, so getting back to that. Playing the way we play, sharing the ball, cutting, all those different things,” wing Nique Clifford said. “That’s probably the biggest thing, fine-tuning our offense and getting back to how we were playing at the beginning of the year.”

CSU will hope to boost production and confidence of some players such as Joel Scott, Joe Palmer and the young guards on the home stand, while also getting back in rhythm with a healthy roster.

What’s next and the path to success

The truth is the road is a nightmare across the country and especially in the Mountain West. It doesn’t remove the fact that CSU’s losses were missed opportunities, but it is also par for the course right now.

The top MW teams are winning at home and losing on the road. No. 19 San Diego State was blown out at New Mexico this weekend. The Lobos have already lost at CSU and at UNLV. The lone road win among the top group was Boise State following its home victory over CSU with a win at Nevada.

Home teams in the top seven conferences (including the MW) are winning nearly 70% of the time this season, compared to around 60% last season, per analytics expert Evan Miyakawa.

Just last week the following ranked teams lost on the road to unranked teams:

• No. 1 Purdue (at Nebraska)

• No. 2 Houston (at Iowa State and at TCU)

• No. 3 Kansas (at UCF)

• No. 5 Tennessee (at Mississippi State)

• No. 6 Kentucky (at Texas A&M)

• No. 8 Arizona (at Washington State)

• No. 9 Oklahoma (at TCU)

• No. 17 CSU (at Boise State)

• No. 19 San Diego State (at New Mexico)

• No. 21 Clemson (at Virginia Tech)

• No. 23 Gonzaga (at Santa Clara)

• No. 25 Texas (at West Virginia)

“It’s hard to even describe how (playing on the road) affects you, but you’ve got to love it, too. We got court-stormed twice. That’s pretty awesome,” Medved said.

“The great news is when those teams come back here I think we can give them the same deal.”

And that’s the path. Win home games and steal what you can on the road.

CSU hosts Air Force (7 p.m. Tuesday, Jan. 16) and UNLV (orange-out game at 8:30 p.m. Friday, Jan. 19). Teams who want to win the league must dominate at home.

Reality of the Mountain West

The Mountain West is a doozy. Through two weeks of league play, the league is as or more competitive than expected.

There are six MW teams in the top 60 of KenPom ratings. Those same six are top-44 in the NET. They’re all top-44 by BartTorvik, too.

You get the point. The league is loaded. Boise State wasn’t considered one of the favorites after nonconference play, but the Broncos are joined with Utah State as the only unbeatens in league play.

San Diego State barely beat San Jose State and was rolled at The Pit. New Mexico lost at CSU and Nevada but has a signature win over San Diego State.

CSU is disappointed with the 1-2 start but has had one of the toughest early slates. Every team will face stretches of huge tests (for instance, two of Utah State’s next three are at New Mexico and at Boise State).

The regular season winner seems likely to finish, at best, 14-4. A 13-5 top record isn’t wild to see, either.

KenPom currently projects Utah State the winner at 13-5 with three teams (including CSU) at 12-6.

To repeat: The path to the title is to dominate at home and scrape together road wins as much as possible.

“We are disappointed, but I think when you take a step back and look at the big picture, we’re 13-3. We’re still in a great position,” Medved said. “Everything we want is right in front of us. You know you’re going to have ups and downs in a season. You know you’re not going to play great every game. What happens is a veteran team understands that and they know the only thing you can do is focus on what’s next and learn from it.”

NCAA Tournament resume

The early league losses led to overreactions in some corners of the internet, but the Rams are still in great NCAA Tournament position. As is the MW, with a five-bid league very possible.

CSU’s nonconference resume built excellent metrics. The Rams are No. 21 in the NCAA’s NET rankings and No. 26 in KenPom. BracketMatrix aggregates projections and currently the Rams average as a 5-seed on 58 projections currently available.

The resume is just fine.

Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on Twitter and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: What to know about Colorado State basketball’s mini losing streak and the path in a loaded Mountain West