What to know about the 2023 Kentucky Derby draw
LOUISVILLE — The starting gate for the 149th Kentucky Derby was set Monday, with favorite Forte drawing the No. 15 post position. Trained by Todd Pletcher, who won the Derby in 2010 and 2017, Forte will try to become the seventh horse to win from No. 15, with Authentic being the most recent to do it in 2020.
Made the 3-to-1 morning line favorite, Forte has won six of seven races in his career including the Florida Derby in his most recent start. He's trying to become the first 2-year-old champion to also win the Kentucky Derby since Nyquist, who pulled it off in 2016.
Second favorite Tapit Trice, also trained by Pletcher, will start from the No. 5 hole. Historically, that has been the best place to be in the Derby with 10 winners, including Always Dreaming, the Pletcher trainee who won in 2017.
The lone gate that has never had a Kentucky Derby winner is No. 17, where Japanese star Derma Sotogake will start from on Saturday.
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How does the draw work?
The Kentucky Derby has had several iterations of the post position draw, including several years where horses' names were picked out of a hat randomly and the owner and trainer could choose which post position they wanted based on what was available.
These days, though, Churchill Downs uses a traditional draw method for the Derby where one racing official picks a piece of paper with a horse's name on it from a pile, and another official simultaneously reaches into a container full of gate numbers to make a match. This takes place in a public setting so that nobody can claim any malfeasance or conspiracies — it’s simply luck of the draw.
Why is the Derby draw significant?
In a 20-horse field, racing luck and position around the first turn will often determine whether a horse has a chance to win. Countless Derby contenders have been compromised in the first 200 yards of the race, either because they got bumped and jostled at the start or because they were carried wide and lost ground going into the backstretch.
In general, horses with the most early speed fare better with more inside post positions so that they can clear the field and get down to the rail. Conversely, drawing in the middle or toward the outside is better for horses that come from off the pace.
In the past, trainers did not want to be stuck on the extreme outside for fear of being stuck eight or nine paths wide on the first turn. But over time, it hasn't proven to be too much of a disadvantage: There have been five winners combined from the 18, 19 and 20 post positions.
At the same time, drawing too far inside can be problematic because of how many riders are trying to move closer to the rail, sometimes creating traffic jams and a lot of contact among the horses.
Either way, there’s a huge premium on the jockey’s decision-making in the first few seconds after the gate opens.
“Most races, I could break it down to two or three scenarios for how I thought it would unfold,” said Jerry Bailey, a two-time Derby winning jockey who is now an analyst for NBC Sports. “You can’t do that with the Derby. It’s too many horses, too much happens at the break. Those plans rarely work out. In the Derby, you’re trying to get close to what your ideal trip is and you try to avoid a lot of bumping and grinding through the stretch the first time because it'll take a lot out of your horse.”
Who liked their draw?
If you think Forte is the best horse in the race, nothing about his post position should change that. “No excuse,” owner Mike Repole said about drawing No. 15, which should allow Forte the option to settle into the middle of the pack where he’ll be most comfortable early in the race. Right to his inside will be Angel of Empire, the 8-to-1 third choice on the morning line who won the Arkansas Derby.
With similar running styles, Forte and Angel of Empire should be closely connected throughout the race. You can be sure Flavien Prat on Angel of Empire and Iran Ortiz on Forte will be tracking each other’s moves if they stay in touch after the gate opens.
“It’s just like driving,” he said. “Somebody gets off, somebody makes a move and suddenly there’s a spot for you and you take it if you’re lucky enough to have that spot at the time your horse needs to make up ground.”
Practical Move, the Santa Anita Derby winner, should be fine with the No. 10 post position as well as Mage (No. 8) and Jace’s Road (No. 12).
Whose chances might be compromised by post position?
Though trainer Brad Cox was pleased with Angel of Empire’s draw, his other two horses were not as lucky. Hit Show got stuck with the dreaded No. 1 post, which is considered a disadvantage because there’s often nowhere to go to avoid traffic problems except either straight to the lead or way back in the pack. Notably, the last horse to win from the No. 1 gate was 37 years ago when Ferdinand came from well off the pace under Bill Shoemaker.
Cox will also saddle Verifying, who got hit with the No. 2 post position. Verifying has shown speed in his last two starts and could very well be forced to go for the lead.
How will post position impact the early pace?
It’s a good bet that Kingsbarns, who drew the No. 6 post, will be on or near the lead when they enter the first turn. Another Pletcher trainee, Kingsbarns enters the Derby just 3-for-3 lifetime but went wire-to-wire in an impressive Louisiana Derby win on March 25. From the No. 6 hole, jockey Jose Ortiz will likely try to get his horse in the clear early.
Also, Derma Sotogake will almost be forced to join the first flight of horses coming from the No. 17 hole. He showed a lot of early speed in the UAE Derby and will need to use it to avoid going wide on the first turn.
Reincarnate (No. 7) and Jace’s Road (No. 12) are also strong candidates to join Verifying and Kingsbarns in the first flight of horses.
The question is whether someone out of that group sets a reasonable pace or whether the Derby plays out like last year, where hot early fractions of 21.78 seconds for the first quarter and 45.36 seconds for the half-mile led to a pace meltdown that favored the late runners.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kentucky Derby draw 2023: favorite Forte draws No. 15 post position
