Keys to the game and Sal’s prediction for Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers
ORCHARD PARK - Momentum in sports is a bit of a myth, particularly when you’re talking about carrying it from game to game.
During games, sure, teams can get on a roll — for instance, the way the Buffalo Bills did in the second half last week — and it can seem like there’s nothing the opposition can do to stop that roll.
But once that game is over, so is the so-called momentum, especially in football when you have to wait a week to play again, and every week the opponent, the individual matchups, and the game plan can be so different.
So I’m not buying the theory that the Bills will be able to take any momentum from last week into Sunday’s game at Highmark Stadium against the Carolina Panthers, and coach Sean McDermott seems to feel the same way.
“Yeah, every game’s its own game, so let’s kind of keep it in check here,” he said following the loss to the Buccaneers.
He went on to say he was proud of how the Bills battled back into a position where, minus a couple terrible officiating decisions, they may have actually won the game, but he said, “We’ve got to get ourselves prepared for the next game, honestly. Each game is its own entity.”
At 7-6, the Bills are in a precarious position as the Panthers, come to town. What happened last week no longer matters, and what the Bills can’t be relying on is perceived momentum. They need to take care of business against a Carolina team that, despite its 5-8 record, is still on the periphery of the playoff race in the NFC.
“The time is now,” said offensive tackle Dion Dawkins, who unfortunately probably won’t be able to play because he tested positive for COVID-19 on Friday. “We understand that it’s time to punch that ticket and we have our game faces on. We understand the challenge ahead and they’ve been coaching us for it. So we’re going to put our best foot forward.”
They better, because the Bills have lost five of their last eight games, one of which was an egregious and beyond embarrassing defeat at Jacksonville, so nothing should be taken for granted. Forget about last week’s momentum; that’s not going to matter on Sunday.
Here’s my preview of the game:
1. Bills offense will get tested by unheralded Panthers defense
The Panthers’ disappointing 5-8 season certainly isn’t on their defense, which has played well almost the entire way. Their pass defense ranks No. 1 in the league, just ahead of the Bills, as the Stephon Gilmore-led secondary has had 10 games where the opposition failed to reach 200 yards passing. They had a recent three-game stretch where they held Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to 146 yards, New England’s Mac Jones to 139, and Arizona’s Colt McCoy (playing for injured Kyler Murray) to 107.
Gilmore joined the team in October after his trade from the Patriots and he has played at the same high level he has always played since entering the NFL with the Bills nearly a decade ago. I would expect that he would travel with Stefon Diggs this week, creating a fascinating day-long matchup.
Up front, the Panthers can get after the QB as they rank fourth in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt, and this is now a major source of concern after the Dawkins bombshell. The Bills are losing one of their best blockers and now have to reshuffle an already underperforming offensive line.
Edge rushers Haason Reddick and Brian Burns have combined for 75 pressures per Pro Football Focus as well as 18.5 sacks of the Panthers 32 sacks, a lethal 1-2 combination. Against a revamped line, coupled with Josh Allen’s potential for compromised mobility because of his foot injury, it’s an area to watch.
This might be a day where the Bills try to run the ball a little more, and given Allen’s injury, they would probably have to do so without him contributing much. And that won’t be easy, not with their lackluster offensive line and RBs, and the fact that the Panthers rank ninth in yards per attempt at 4.1, including just 3.7 in the last three games
2. Bills defense should be able to control weak Panthers attack
Since Sam Darnold went down with an injury midway through the season, the Panthers have turned to a bizarre, college-like model where Cam Newton and P.J. Walker are time-sharing the QB position, and neither one is excelling. Then again, neither was Darnold when he was in there.
Walker, who played for Panthers coach Matt Rhule at Temple, lacks experience, while Newton, as has been the case the past few years, is a better runner than he is a passer. Since the rotation began four games ago when Newton rejoined the team, he and Walker have combined to complete just 56.7% of their passes with four TDs and six picks.
All told, Carolina’s three QBs have cobbled together an awful season as they rank 30th in completion percentage (58.6) and 31st in TD to interception ratio (11-17). Whoever is under center, the primary passing game weapons have been WRs D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson who have combined for 48% of the targets and 46.5% of the receiving yards this season. Moore is dealing with a hamstring injury, though, so it’s uncertain whether he can play.
It hasn’t helped that Carolina has been without its best player almost all year, oft-injured RB Christian McCaffrey, one of the best dual-threat RBs in the NFL. In the run game they have turned to rookie fourth-round pick Chuba Howard but he is averaging just 3.5 yards per attempt.
The Panthers haven’t enjoyed much success on offense given their problems at QB, but one area where they’ve been pretty solid is on the offensive line, and they’ve done so despite some upheaval as they’ve started nine different O-line combinations in 13 games.
Carolina, which has ex-Bill John Miller starting at RG, has allowed its QBs to be sacked just eight times in the last seven games, fewest of any team, so the Bills’ will be hard-pressed to get after Newton and/or Walker. It’s a bone of contention for McDermott who said earlier in the week that “100%” the Bills’ front four needs to generate more pressure than it has.
3. Other key points to consider in Buffalo Bills vs. Carolina Panthers matchup
► Stefon Diggs needs two catches to reach 80, meaning he’d join Eric Moulds as just the second Bills WR to have back-to-back seasons with at least 80 receptions. And if he gets 28 yards to reach 1,000, he will join Stevie Johnson as the only Bills to do that in back-to-back seasons.
► If Allen rushes for a TD, he would join Newton as the only QBs in NFL history to score at least five TDs in four consecutive seasons. Allen and Newton are already the only two QBs to rush for at least 25 TDs in their first four years in the league.
► The Bills defense is allowing a league-low 4.77 yards per play in addition to leading the league in fewest yards allowed at 288.9. Further, they are allowing opposing QBs a 67.7 QB rating.
► The Bills have had 57 plays where they gained at least 20 yards, tied for fourth-most in the league. On the flip side, the Panthers have allowed only 37 such plays which is fourth-fewest.
► Newton recorded a rushing touchdown against Atlanta, marking his fourth consecutive game with a rushing touchdown, tied for the longest streak of his career (previously in Weeks 4-7 of 2011) during his first go-round with Carolina.
► Dating back to Newton’s first stint with the Panthers, they have lost the last 11 games he has started. They dropped the last six games Newton started in 2018, the only two he started in 2019, and after a year with the Patriots, he returned last month and is 0-3.
► The Panthers are the only team in the NFL this season to not allow a touchdown on the opposing team’s first drive of a game.
► Since the start of 2019, Panthers WR D.J. Moore has totaled 3,306 receiving yards, fifth-most in the NFL over that span. He ranks fourth on the Panthers all-time receiving yards list.
► The Panthers rank 28th in third-down conversion rate at 34.8% while the Bills’ defense ranks third at 33.7%. On the other side, the Bills are third in third-down success at 45.7% while Carolina ranks eighth on defense at 36.3%.
Sal’s prediction: Buffalo Bills 27, Carolina Panthers 13
There’s no way the Bills can stub their toe, right? They have backed themselves against the proverbial wall thanks to this poor stretch of five losses in eight games, but now their schedule, in theory, should be easing up starting with this game against the Panthers.
Carolina’s offense is dysfunctional, and the Bills defense may have found something in the second half last week in Tampa that they can push forward to this game. And assuming the weather doesn’t impact the passing game, the Bills offense should be able to get enough done against a good Panthers defense to win handily.
How to watch, listen to Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers game
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Where: Highmark Stadium
TV: FOX (Kenny Albert, Jonathan Vilma and Lindsay Czarniak)
Satellite radio: Sirius 83, XM 225
Radio: 96.5 FM/950 AM
Series: Bills lead 5-2.
Tipico betting line: Bills -10.5
Talking points
► Panthers coach Matt Rhule on his defense: “I think we’re trying to build a big, fast, athletic, tough defense. We’re in our second year. We’re in the top five of most categories defensively. We got here and there weren’t many guys left. Mario Addison, Vernon Butler had left. A lot of guys had left the defense, so we started over. We have a template in our mind of the athleticism and size we want.”
► Panthers WR Robby Anderson on the fall from a 3-0 start: “It’s like when you build a house, you have to take out all the old things to put in the new things. Coach Rhule made a comment the other day. He said, ‘You can go to a team and live in the culture.’ The situation we’re in, we’re building a culture, so it’s not going to happen overnight. We’ve just got to keep working, keep grinding.’’
► Panthers QB Cam Newton on his poor play since returning to Carolina: “I’m just so disappointed in myself. I hold myself to a high standard. There are a lot of guys around this team that hold me to a high standard, too.”
NFL rankings
Bills Panthers
Total offense: 382.9 yards (8th); 310.0 (27th)
Rush offense: 121.0 yards (15th); 109.7 (18th)
Pass offense: 261.9 (8th); 200.9 (26th)
Points scored: 27.9 (6th); 19.8 (24th)
Total defense: 288.9 yards (1st); 293.0 (2nd)
Rush defense: 109.4 yards (T12th); 115.3 (20th)
Pass defense: 179.5 yards (2nd); 177.7 (1st)
Points allowed: 17.6 (3rd); 21.7 (8th)
Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers individual leaders
Rushing
Bills: Devin Singletary 112 carries, 547 yards; Josh Allen 87-531; Zack Moss 83-286; Matt Breida 25-124; Emmanuel Sanders 2-31; Mitchell Trubisky 10-27; Isaiah McKenzie 5-27.
Panthers: Chuba Howard 132-460; Christian McCaffrey 99-442; Sam Darnold 37-185; Cam Newton 26-112; Ameer Abdullah 25-81.
Passing
Bills: Josh Allen 325 of 494, 3,524 yards, 28 TDs,11 interceptions.
Panthers: Sam Darnold 182 of 306, 1,986 yards, 7 TDs, 11 interceptions; Cam Newton 44 of 75, 467 yards, 3 TDs, 3 interceptions; P.J. Walker 36 of 66, 362 yards, 1 TD, 3 interceptions.
Receiving
Bills: Stefon Diggs 78 catches, 972 yards; Cole Beasley 72-605; Emmanuel Sanders 40-606; Dawson Knox 40-489; Devin Singletary 32-155; Gabriel Davis 24-385; Zack Moss 20-178; Tommy Sweeney 9-44; Matt Breida 7-72; Isaiah McKenzie 6-31.
Panthers: D.J. Moore 72-938; Christian McCaffrey 37-343; Robby Anderson 36-372; Chuba Howard 19-152; Brandon Zylstra 16-233; Tommy Tremble 15-143; Ameer Abdullah 15-129; Terrace Marshall 14-116; Ian Thomas 13-146.
2021 Buffalo Bills schedule
9/12 vs. Steelers, L 16-23
9/19 at Dolphins, W 35-0
9/26 vs. Washington, W 43-21
10/3 vs. Texans, W 40-0
10/10 at Chiefs, W 38-20
10/18 at Titans, L 31-34
10/24 Bye week
10/31 vs. Dolphins, W 26-11
11/7 at Jaguars, L 6-9
11/14 at Jets, W 45-17
11/21 vs. Colts, L 15-41
11/25 at Saints, W 31-6
12/6 vs. Patriots, L 10-14
12/12 at Buccaneers, L 27-33 OT
12/19 vs. Panthers, 1 p.m.
12/26 at Patriots, 1 p.m.
1/2 vs. Falcons, 1 p.m.
1/9 vs. Jets, 1 p.m.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs Carolina Panthers Keys to the game and prediction
