Can Kentucky basketball return to NCAA Tournament Final Four in 2023-24? 5 games to watch

LEXINGTON — Two questions, separated by three years, surround Kentucky basketball each season.

When will the Wildcats win their ninth national title, their first since 2012? And when will they return to the Final Four for the first time since 2015?

To accomplish either during the 2023-24 season, UK and coach John Calipari will have to go against the grain of the country's most successful teams lately. Final Four squads and national champions of recent vintage have featured veteran, upperclassman-heavy rosters.

Kentucky isn't that.

The 2023-24 version of the Wildcats touts two seniors, both of whom joined the program as transfers (Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell). They have only two other players who were part of last season's roster (little-used sophomores Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso). The other eight scholarship players are freshmen.

Still, Calipari's best teams in Lexington have leaned on mega-talented one-and-done stars — freshmen who only got better as the season progressed and were in peak form by March.

Can this group make a similar claim at the end of the season?

These five games should help determine what kind of run the Wildcats can make once the NCAA Tournament arrives:

vs. Kansas (9:30 p.m. Nov. 14 at the United Center in Chicago)

The easiest pick on the board. In Kansas and Kentucky, it's the two winningest programs in college basketball history. (The Jayhawks enter this season with an eight-game lead, 2,385 to 2,377.) But that's far from the only reason this is a compelling matchup.

First is, well, first. As in, Kansas is the preseason No. 1 team in nearly every early poll one can find, be it ESPN, CBS Sports or 247Sports. Then there's Hunter Dickinson. The former Michigan star big man had UK and KU among his finalists after entering the transfer portal, visiting both campuses before eventually picking the Jayhawks.

He'll provide a tough test for the Kentucky frontcourt, which could still be without Onyenso and freshman 7-footer Aaron Bradshaw because of injuries at this point in the season. The Wildcats are well aware what Dickinson is capable of: He had 23 points (on 10-of-22 shooting) and nine rebounds for Michigan in a 73-69 Kentucky win last season in London.

Along with Dickinson, the returning starting trio of KJ Adams Jr., Dajuan Harris Jr. and Kevin McCullar Jr. provides the Jayhawks a dependable, seasoned core as they vie for coach Bill Self's third national championship.

Though it's a minor note, this game gives Calipari a chance to start turning around the series.

After Calipari won his first three matchups against Kansas as Kentucky's coach, the Jayhawks have captured five of the past seven meetings.

Knocking off the top-ranked Jayhawks, in the third game of the Wildcats' season, would be quite a statement to the rest of the country by Calipari's crew before Thanksgiving arrives.

vs. Miami (7:30 p.m. Nov. 28, Rupp Arena)

No team on Kentucky's schedule is coming off a deeper run in March Madness than the Hurricanes. Miami and coach Jim Larrañaga reached the Final Four for the first time in program history before falling to UConn (the eventual champion) in the national semifinals. But that's selling the Hurricanes short: The year before their Final Four appearance, they made their first Elite Eight.

Miami is expected to be among the nation's best teams once again.

Three starters — guards Nijel Pack and Wooga Poplar along with forward Norchad Omier — are back from last season and welcome an in-state ACC transfer in former Florida State guard Matthew Cleveland. The Hurricanes' biggest question mark: How well can they replace the production of last season's two leading scorers, Isaiah Wong (16.2 points per game) and Jordan Miller (15.3 ppg), both of whom were selected in the second round of the 2023 NBA Draft? But the past two seasons have proven Larrañaga still is capable of March magic. Recall he was George Mason's coach during the program's Cinderella run to the Final Four as an 11-seed in 2006.

The Kentucky/Miami matchup is part of the inaugural ACC/SEC Challenge. This will be only the fifth meeting between the two, with the Wildcats holding a 3-1 advantage.

Given the Hurricanes' Final Four pedigree, this contest is another measuring stick for how quickly the Wildcats' young roster has meshed less than a month into the season.

at Texas A&M (3 p.m. Jan. 13, Reed Arena)

Kentucky and Texas A&M met once last season: The Wildcats triumphed 76-67 at Rupp Arena to end the Aggies' seven-game win streak. UK returns the scheduling favor this time, traveling to College Station, Texas, in January for the only regular-season matchup between two squads expected to compete for the SEC title.

The Aggies return four of their five starters (Henry Coleman III, Julius Marble, Tyrece Radford and Wade Taylor IV) from a squad that went 25-10 overall and reached the SEC Tournament championship game. The Aggies added reinforcements via the transfer portal: Jace Carter averaged 16.6 points per game at Illinois-Chicago last season, and Eli Lawrence was Middle Tennessee State's top scorer (12.2 ppg) in 2022-23.

Since Texas A&M joined the SEC prior to the 2012-13 season, UK has won 11 of the 14 matchups, including the past four.

A win here by UK could prove pivotal at the end of the regular season if tiebreakers come into play for the SEC Tournament — and a victory in a hostile environment, against a likely NCAA Tournament squad, will go a long way in the eyes of the selection committee once it starts seeding teams.

vs. Gonzaga (4 p.m. Feb. 10, Rupp Arena)

Preseason projections for the Bulldogs are all over the place, ranking as high as No. 7 (according to ESPN) and as low as No. 19 (according to CBS Sports). Regardless, coach Mark Few has assembled what appears to be another top-25 group, battling Saint Mary's for West Coast Conference supremacy.

Though Gonzaga reached the Elite Eight as a 3-seed last season — where it was promptly, and rudely, shown the door by UConn in an 82-54 shellacking — the team has been revamped. Gone are Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton and Malachi Smith. Into their places step three transfers: Ryan Nembhard (Creighton), Graham Ike (Wyoming) and Steele Venters (Eastern Washington). To reach the program's previous heights, it needs those three transfers to play up to expectations and two returnees (Nolan Hickman and Anton Watson) to showcase significant improvement.

After a lopsided loss to Gonzaga last season in Spokane, Washington, Kentucky won't lack for motivation.

Of greater import, this game could give the Wildcats a signature nonconference victory in the heart of SEC play.

at Tennessee (4 p.m. March 9, Thompson-Boling Arena)

Even with highly touted Harvard transfer Chris Ledlum decommitting and heading to St. John's to join Rick Pitino's new team, Tennessee likely will start its 2023-24 campaign ranked among the top 10 of every poll and a solid bet to be the preseason pick to win the SEC (though UK, Arkansas and Texas A&M should receive first-place votes, too).

Two key pieces of last season's team (All-SEC first-team selection Santiago Vescovi and SEC All-Tournament team pick Josiah-Jordan James) will be every bit as crucial now. Transfers Dalton Knecht (led the Big Sky Conference in scoring last season, averaging 20.2 points per game for Northern Colorado) and Jordan Gainey (first-team All-Big South performer last season at USC Upstate) will be counted on, too.

But no player is more integral to Tennessee's success — particularly come NCAA Tournament time, which is an annual struggle for coach Rick Barnes (which is probably putting it lightly compared to these headlines) — than Zakai Zeigler. The 5-foot-9 guard suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Volunteers' final home game in February. At the time, he was leading the SEC in assists per game at 5.4. If Zeigler shows no lingering effects from that injury and rediscovers last season's form, the Volunteers will be a tough out for any team they face.

That includes Kentucky. This contest is the regular-season finale for both squads.

The potential conference and NCAA implications notwithstanding — this game might determine the SEC's regular-season champion, decide who earns the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament and represent a Quad 1 win for either team — any matchup with Tennessee is important for Kentucky.

In the eyes of the fan base, no annual rival — aside from Louisville — is more despised than Kentucky's southern neighbor. And the history writes itself, as UK has faced Tennessee more than any other team: 237 times, with the Wildcats leading the all-time series 160-77.

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Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball schedule 2023-24: 5 key games for John Calipari