KenPom analysis: What challenges lie ahead for Xavier Musketeers in Big East gauntlet?
Xavier returned from its Christmas break and had two kicks at the can in the waning moments of regulation fall short in a 66-65 loss to Villanova on the road.
The defeat slipped Xavier back to .500 and 1-2 so far in Big East play. What's in store for the next two months? The Musketeers have 17 conference clashes over a 59-day span, starting with a home game against defending national-champion UConn on Wednesday at Cintas Center. That's just the tip of the Big East iceberg, though, as the league is arguably the toughest in the nation and the numbers show it.
More: 'It's broken our back.' Sean Miller searching for answers as rebounding woes doom Xavier
According to the popular college basketball website, KenPom, Xavier is ranked No. 41 in the nation and has had the 20th-hardest adjusted strength of schedule when factoring in non-conference games like at Purdue, vs. Houston, vs. UC and two tough games in Las Vegas (Washington, St. Mary's).
Looking forward, the road doesn't get easier for a young Musketeers squad looking to gel at the right time.
KenPom predicts Xavier's record
What does the data say?
KenPom projects Xavier to finish the regular season with a 16-15 overall record and a 10-10 mark in Big East play. Despite final score predictions forecasting Xavier to go 8-9 over its final 17 games, the 16-15 record is based off cumulative probabilities of winning each contest.
There's a margin for error in the final record with how tight the games are expected to be. Of Xavier's nine losses, eight are projected to be by eight points or less, including four by a single point. On the other side of the coin, Xavier is projected to win eight games, including four by nine points or less.
Of course, these projections can fly out the window in a hurry. Xavier has lost as a big home favorite during the non-conference in games against Oakland and Delaware, while playing spoiler on other nights, like it's dominant win over St. Marys' in Las Vegas as a 5.5-point underdog.
What are Xavier's toughest challenges remaining in the Big East?
While there are no off nights in the Big East, Xavier finishes January with four its top-5 toughest games remaining in the regular season, according to KenPom, starting this week.
Opponent, Date | Location | Win probability (KenPom) |
vs. UConn, Jan. 10 | Cintas Center | 37% |
at Providence, Jan. 13 | Amica Mutual Pavilion | 41% |
vs. Butler, Jan. 16 | Cintas Center | 71% |
vs. Georgetown, Jan. 19 | Cintas Center | 92% |
at Creighton, Jan. 13 | CHI Health Center | 24% |
at UConn, Jan. 28 | XL Center | 18% |
No. 4 UConn
Record: 13-2
Dates: Wednesday, Jan. 10 (home)/ Sunday, Jan. 28 (away)
KenPom: UConn is No. 6, ranking No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
KenPom's final scores: UConn 75, Xavier 71 (Jan. 10)/ UConn 78, Xavier 68 (Jan. 28)
Difficulty: Wednesday is the fourth-hardest game remaining on Xavier's schedule, according to win probability. Xavier's toughest remaining contest is when the Musketeers visit Hartford, Connecticut on Jan. 28. In that matchup, KenPom gives Xavier just an 18% chance of winning and projects a 78-68 loss.
Creighton
Record: 11-4
Dates: Tuesday, Jan. 23 (away)/ Saturday, Feb. 10 (home)
KenPom: Creighton is No. 15, ranking No. 19 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 21st in adjusted defensive efficiency.
KenPom's final scores: Creighton 76, Xavier 68 (Jan. 23)/ Creighton 72, Xavier 71 (Feb. 10)
Difficulty: Xavier is given a 24% chance to beat Creighton on the road later this month, making it tied for the second-hardest game remaining on the schedule. The Musketeers host the Bluejays less than three weeks later with a 46% chance of victory and a one-point projected defeat.
No. 7 Marquette
Record: 11-4
Dates: Sunday, Feb. 25 (away)/ Saturday, March 9 (home)
KenPom: Marquette is No. 14, ranking 26th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
KenPom's final scores: Marquette 78, Xavier 70 (Feb. 25)/ Marquette 75, Xavier 74 (March 9)
Difficulty: Per KenPom, Xavier has a 24% chance of winning at Marquette in its final road trip of February. It's tied for the Musketeers' second-hardest game remaining in the regular season (at Creighton). KenPom then gives Xavier a 45% in the regular-season finale against Marquette at Cintas Center, projecting another one-point loss.
No. 23 Providence
Record: 11-4
Dates: Saturday, Jan. 13 (away)/ Wednesday, Feb. 21 (home)
KenPom: Providence is No. 45, ranking 153 in adjusted offensive efficiency and 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
KenPom's final scores: Providence 70, Xavier 68 (Jan. 13)/ Xavier 71, Providence 67 (Feb. 21)
Difficulty: Xavier's trip to Rhode Island this weekend is the fifth-toughest remaining game on its schedule according to KenPom, which gives the Musketeers a 41% chance of winning. KenPom later projects a four-point Xavier victory when it hosts the Friars in February (64% win probability).
Other KenPom projections
Xavier is projected to win by double figures against Georgetown Jan. 19 (82-66) and in both meetings against DePaul: 78-66 in Chicago Feb. 3 and 81-62 at home Feb. 28. KenPom predicts a trio of narrow Xavier home wins against Butler (78-72), St. John's (77-75) and Villanova (70-69) and one-point losses at Seton Hall (73-72) and Butler (76-75).
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: KenPom analysis: Xavier projected to go 16-15, finish .500 in Big East
