Justin Fields projected to be a very productive rookie according to NFL.com
Quarterback. It’s the heart and soul of a football team. Always had been, but the position takes on even greater significance in today’s day and age of slinging the ball around much more than when teams wore leather helmets and had pads as wide automobile fenders.
So, it’s no surprise that the NFL draft sees a slew of signal-callers go early and often on an annual basis. Find yourself a franchise quarterback and you can turn a team’s fortunes around almost instantly.
Enter former Ohio State gunslinger Justin Fields. He was taken later than most people thought in last year’s draft at No. 11, but the Chicago Bears might be the benefactor in trading up. Overall, the former Heisman finalist was the fourth quarterback taken in the draft.
It may be a few years before we really know whether Fields is a value pick or not, but we will get to see some things instantly during his rookie season. And that’s where NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund comes in. She has projected the top five rookie performing quarterbacks for the upcoming NFL season, and she has Fields showing better than his draft position based on analytic-driven numbers.
NEXT … Fields’ performance compared to other rookie quarterbacks
Justin Fields – No. 3 rookie performing QB
May 15, 2021; Lake Forest, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) works out during rookie minicamp at Halas Hall. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
What Frelund Says
“In 2020, 21.0 percent of Bears pass attempts were thrown into tight windows, which was the highest rate in the NFL. Tight windows occur when targeted receivers have less than 1 yard of separation, and a high rate of tight-window attempts can be an indicator that defenses are able to anticipate the offensive plays a team is calling. Fields provides coach Matt Nagy with the opportunity to diversify his attack. From 2018 to 2020, Fields produced a TD-to-INT ratio of 54:4 from a clean pocket, PFF’s best such mark in that span. Fields also showed top-ranking production ability on deep passes (posting a 50 percent completion rate on throws of 20-plus yards since 2019, per PFF, ranking sixth-best in the FBS) and off play-action (with a 146.4 passer rating on play-action in 2020, third-best in the FBS, according to PFF), and he showed he could connect on attempts of 10-plus air yards when his base was not set (55.5 percent completion rate on such throws since 2019, per my computer vision). Those are all great indicators when it comes to projecting his NFL production. Also, take note of the Ohio State product’s 630 rushing yards on scrambles since 2019 (with five TDs). Nagy’s recent public comments indicate Andy Dalton is in line to begin the season as Chicago’s starter. If Fields were to be named the QB1 ahead of Week 1, his fantasy value would catapult him to the top of this rookie list — but he’d still fall outside of the top 13 of all QBs.”
NEXT … Frelund’s top five projected rookie QBs
Frelund’s top five projected rookie QBs
1. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
4. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
5. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
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