Josh Hart or Deuce McBride: Which player should Knicks start in playoffs?

The Knicks are as healthy as they’ll get as the playoff picture comes into focus, with just three more games left to see how their postseason rotation might look.

OG Anunoby’s long-awaited return from an aggravation of his right elbow injury has been a big boost, but some questions still remain unanswered.

One example: Are the Knicks going to stick to this starting lineup? They’re currently running Jalen Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo, Anunoby, Josh Hart, and Isaiah Hartenstein, but have the option of going smaller and spacier with Deuce McBride in over Hart. 

The Brunson-McBride backcourt has spawned some of the best Knicks performances of this late season, despite the injuries plaguing them. On the flip side, Hart is the veteran option who offers a size advantage. 

While head coach Tom Thibodeau is likely to stick with what’s worked, the playoffs come with unique matchups and often require mid-series adjustments. Let’s dig into the numbers to see which lineup may end up as New York’s go-to...

Their current starters have played 96 minutes over eight games, outscoring opponents by a massive 15.5 points per 100 possessions behind a stifling defense. The alternative with McBride over Hart, while also highly positive, has only played 10 minutes over three games -- far too small a sample size to draw from.

With little statistical guidance, individual factors need to be weighed in this decision. For one, the rebounding advantage Hart provides over McBride.

Grabbing boards might be Hart’s best skill, as he’s averaged 10.8 rebounds a game since the All-Star break. For the season, he has a higher defensive rebounding rate than Julius Randle, while McBride doesn’t make much of an impact on the glass.

This could be the deciding factor in keeping Hart in pivotal lineups, trying to maintain New York’s rebounding edge from the past two seasons. Anunoby is not an especially prolific rebounder, and with him manning one of the forward spots, the Knicks will need a lot of boards from the other.

On the flip side, McBride provides much better spacing than Hart. He’s been on fire from three since the Anunoby deal, shooting 41.5 percent on a variety of catch-and-shoot and pull-up looks. 

Hart’s deep ball is notoriously unreliable - 30.9 percent on the season. Worse yet, his volume has disappeared once again, with him attempting just four in the last six games.

As always, Hart has contributed well enough in other areas, and knows how to counteract his lack of spacing by getting on the ball and making smart cuts and plays.

But that doesn’t fly as easily in the playoffs. Every deficiency is exposed, and every flaw attacked relentlessly. We saw this during the Knicks' 2023 run, when the Miami Heat elected to all but ignore Hart, stopping New York’s offense dead in its tracks with him on the court.

If that happens again, Thibs will have to rely on McBride more. But once something like that loses you a game, it could cost the series. Some things are different from last year, like Hartenstein being a starter and the Knicks finding new ways to cover Hart’s weakness, but this is something to keep an eye on.

One minor fix would just be for Hart to shoot open threes, accuracy be damned. Even keeping defenses honest by showing the willingness to confidently put it up can help mitigate their strategies.

Another reason to move Hart to the bench is that he may be more useful there than McBride. Chances are both will play a ton of minutes, including with both units, but there’s reason to choose Hart if you had to pair one with the reserves more.

McBride is less of a ball-handler/creator type and more of a complementary shooter, making him a good fit next to Brunson and DiVincenzo. Hart can be on or off the ball, but his sparkplug playmaking might be better off utilized among bench players who need setting up, rather than the starters with Brunson and Anunoby.

That would leave the starters a bit outsized in certain matchups. McBride is 6’2”, 200 pounds to Hart’s 6’4” 215. It's not a huge disparity, but you feel it when either has to guard a big or get physical inside.

If the Knicks have fears about McBride carrying over his regular season performance into the playoffs since he doesn't have the experience, that would be a fair concern as well. They may want to see how he does off the bench first before making a big move.

Whatever direction they go, in the nature of the playoffs it won’t last long, and they’ll have to mix things up. The good news for the Knicks is that despite their injuries and midseason trades, they’ve found themselves a solid eight-man rotation with optionality and depth -- the things they’ll need for a strong playoff run.