Jon Wilner analysis shows USC will need to beat UCLA to make New Year’s Six bowl
USC’s bowl picture is cloudy but promising. What obviously matters is that the Trojans take care of business, but one detail of their situation offers cause for some concern.
Before the season, the idea that USC could get a New Year’s Six bowl with a 10-2 record seemed very realistic, given that Utah was supposed to be a College Football Playoff contender and Notre Dame was supposed to be a very good team. However, with Utah having no shot at the playoff, and with Notre Dame struggling, USC won’t get a huge boost from either its one-point loss at Utah or from a win over Notre Dame.
The thought process going into 2022 was that a narrow loss at Utah might actually improve USC’s resume, and that a loss to Notre Dame wouldn’t detract from it. Those scenarios aren’t in play.
The Trojans will have to go 11-1 to make a New Year’s Six bowl.
Jon Wilner of The Mercury News explains:
WILNER'S ANALYSIS BEGINS HERE
All of the notes below are from Wilner:
The Fiesta and Peach are hosting semifinals for the College Football Playoff.
— The Rose is under contract to pair the Pac-12 against the Big Ten.
— The Sugar will match the SEC against the Big 12.
— The Orange is obligated to invite an ACC team for one slot and either the SEC, Big Ten or Notre Dame for the other
COTTON BOWL CENTRALITY
That leaves the Cotton Bowl as the only game without a conference or semifinal matchup. But because the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five is guaranteed a berth in the New Year’s Six, there is only one spot available in the Cotton for an at-large team.
THIS IS VERY UNLIKELY
If the Pac-12 sends its champion to the playoff, the next-highest-ranked team would jump into the Rose Bowl.
PAC-12 TITLE GAME STAKES
If the Pac-12 champion ends up in the Rose, the conference could fill the at-large spot in the Cotton.
USC NEEDS TO BEAT UCLA TO MOVE INTO TOP 8 IN LATE NOVEMBER
It all depends on the final CFP rankings, but a two-loss team in the top 12 following the conference championship games would have an excellent chance for the Cotton. (The first CFP rankings will be released Nov. 1.)
HISTORICAL CONTEXT
The Pac-12 has produced two New Year’s Six at-large teams in eight years, both playing in the Fiesta Bowl: Arizona in 2014; and Washington in 2017.
MONEY
A berth in the semifinals is worth $6 million to the participant’s conference, with an at-large slot in the New Year’s Six generating a $4 million paycheck.
In each case, the team’s expenses are handled separately, and the paycheck is split evenly among the 12 schools, per the Pac-12’s revenue sharing policy.
The at-large bids bring both cash and prestige to the conference. And it’s all within reach this season, so long as parity is kept at bay.
ROSE BOWL / WILNER'S NOTE ON OREGON
Team: Oregon (6-1/4-0)
Home games remaining (two): Washington, Utah
Road games remaining (three): Cal, Colorado, Oregon State
Comment: No change here — the Hotline has been slotting the Ducks into the Rose for three weeks. Whether their ceiling is higher than the Granddaddy (i.e., the CFP) depends on 1) winning out and 2) the number and identity of the other one-loss teams at season’s end. We remain skeptical of the Ducks’ chances but haven’t ruled them out just yet.
COTTON BOWL IS PROBABLE IF USC GOES 11-1 IN REGULAR SEASON, LOSES TO OREGON IN PAC-12 TITLE GAME
Team: USC (6-1/4-1)
Home (three): Cal, Colorado, Notre Dame
Road (two): Arizona, UCLA
Comment: For TV ratings, hype and playoff implications, a championship game matchup between USC and Oregon would be as good as it gets for the Pac-12.
ALAMO BOWL FOR UCLA UNLESS BRUINS BEAT USC
Team: UCLA (6-1/3-1)
Home (three): Stanford, Arizona, USC
Road (two): Arizona State, Cal
Comment: While researching the projections, we noticed that not only has the Pac-12 lost six of the past seven Alamo Bowls (to the Big 12); it has lost most of them decisively.
HOLIDAY BOWL -- THIS ASSUMES UTAH LOSES A THIRD GAME (PROBABLY AT OREGON)
Team: Utah (5-2/3-1)
Home (two): Arizona, Stanford
Road (three): WSU, Oregon, Colorado
Comment: It’s not a one-game season (at Oregon) for a berth in the Pac-12 championship — at least not yet. But if the Utes win Thursday night at Washington State, then it all hinges on the Nov. 19 showdown in Eugene.
LAS VEGAS BOWL FOR WASHINGTON
Team: Washington (6-2/3-2)
Home (two): Oregon State, Colorado
Road (two): Oregon, WSU
Comment: Last week, we speculated that Mississippi State (with former Washington State coach Mike Leach) would be an intriguing opponent in Las Vegas. But the SEC could send one of several teams, including Florida, Mississippi and perhaps Texas A&M.
SUN BOWL FOR BEAVERS
Team: Oregon State (6-2/3-2)
Home (two): Cal, Oregon
Road (two): Washington, ASU
Comment: The climb into the Pac-12 title game is akin to scaling El Capitan due to head-to-head losses to USC and Utah. But the Beavers could land in the Holiday or Las Vegas bowls … if they win in Seattle next Friday night.
LA BOWL FOR WAZZU
Team: Washington State (4-3/1-3)
Home (three): Utah, ASU, Washington
Road (two): Stanford, Arizona
Comment: A reminder on the selection process: The Alamo, Holiday and Las Vegas bowls have the option to skip one team for another as long as they aren’t separated by more than one game in the conference standings. The Sun and LA bowls must make their selections based on order-of-finish.
ARIZONA UNLIKELY TO GO BOWLING
Team: Arizona (3-4/1-3)
Home (three): USC, Washington State, ASU
Road (two): Utah, UCLA
Comment: Unless the Wildcats somehow emerge from their bye week with a wholly different defense, we don’t see three wins within that array of five games. The offense will have no margin for error against USC, UCLA and Utah. None.
SUN DEVILS IN BIG BOWL TROUBLE
Team: Arizona State (2-5/1-3)
Home (two): UCLA, Oregon State
Road (three): Colorado, WSU, Arizona
Comment: Winning at Stanford was essential to making the bowl math work. We would have moved the Sun Devils into an at-large bowl had they secured that third victory. Now, the road is treacherous.
BEARS HAVE A BOWL BURDEN
Team: Cal (3-4/1-3)
Home (three): Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Road (two): USC, Oregon State
Comment: Given the sputtering offense, the Bears are more likely to lose the rest of their games than they are to win three of the five. And if they end up one win short, blame that atrocious performance in Boulder.
COLORADO HAS BEEN BOWLED OVER
Team: Colorado (1-6/1-3)
Home (three): ASU, Oregon, Utah
Road (two): USC, Washington
Comment: Wait ’til next year — actually, check that: The Buffs probably need to wait until 2024 for a bowl bid.
A CHANCE FOR STANFORD
Team: Stanford (3-4/1-4)
Home (two): WSU, Brigham Young
Road (three): UCLA, Utah, Cal
Comment: We considered slotting the Cardinal into an at-large bowl — there are three wins available on the remaining schedule. But the grind of playing 10 consecutive weeks makes us wonder about Stanford’s physical condition in the back end of November.
