John Schneider's pinch-running decision was as poorly rationalized as it was costly

There are plenty of times when criticism of MLB managers is intellectually lazy.

Much of what they do is opaque to the public eye, some decisions are made on sound logic but simply don't work out, lineup decisions can be collaborative, and they often possess hyper-specific matchup data that the public doesn't have a hold of.

Skippers also don't have the ability to draw up schemes for how their players can work together like coaches in other sports — making their success reliant on individual performances they don't have much control over. We usually don't know precisely what impact a manager is having, but it's easier to make them a scapegoat than admit to that ignorance.

All of that said, John Schneider's decision not to pinch-run for Alejandro Kirk in the Toronto Blue Jays' 5-4 loss to the Washington Nationals on Tuesday is impossible to defend — not only due to the result, but also the clearly flawed logic behind it.

Let's put the move and rationale under the microscope:

The situation

Following a Kirk double, the Blue Jays had runners at second and third with one out in the bottom of the eighth. The only available player Schneider had left on the bench was Mason McCoy, a shortstop with 23 stolen bases at Triple-A this season.

Whit Merrifield scored from third base on a wild pitch to make it 5-3, which moved Kirk to third. Schneider opted not to pinch-run for his catcher — whose sprint speed ranks 529th of 536 qualified MLB players — either after the double, or when he got to third base.

The result

Daulton Varsho hit a medium-depth fly ball with Kirk on third and one out. The glacial runner was promptly gunned out at home plate.

The Blue Jays mounted a small rally in the ninth inning, and wound up losing by a single run.

The explanation

After the game Schneider presented a rundown of his thinking.

"We were a little short. Brandon (Belt) wasn't available. We had guys playing everywhere. (Cavan Biggio) at short, Davis (Schneider) at third, kind of a lot of moving parts," he told assembled media. "Tying run, yeah, we would have had a runner there. Down by two, no."

That is true, but also doesn't especially matter.

Schneider had McCoy, who was undoubtedly a better option than Kirk. Bringing him off the bench would've given Schneider no more moves to make, but McCoy was in his first MLB game — and had significantly below-average offensive numbers at Triple-A. There was no situation he'd be needed for pinch-hitting.

Holding him in reserve served virtually no purpose outside of as an injury replacement, or in a rare scenario where the team took a lead in that eighth inning and Schneider felt he was a better option at shortstop than Biggio. If the team won in any other way it would be walk-off that wouldn't necessitate defensive replacements.

Even if there was an injury, the Blue Jays could have brought McCoy out from the DH spot and lost that position. That'd be a suboptimal situation, but that would be a problem for a later inning as the pitcher's spot would slide in wherever the injured player departed. With Varsho able to play catcher in a pinch, there wasn't even a concern about a backstop shortage arising from removing Kirk.

Schneider's chances of needing McCoy for something later in the game were vanishingly slim. This was one of the few times when the Triple-A journeyman could've served a clear purpose and provided a significant boost.

Another reason the manager presented for being reluctant to yank Kirk is the offensive threat he could present later in the game.

“You pinch-hit Varsho — you’re looking to do damage to try to take the lead and clip a homer," he said. "You never know how the game goes. A lot of different ways where crazy sh** happens and you get into the 11th inning and that spot comes up. And you want Kirky at the plate."

The issue with that is twofold.

Firstly, when you have just five outs left to play with and multiple runs to accumulate you simply don't have the luxury of thinking about a possible 11th inning. Kirk is also in the midst of a rough offensive season where he's posted an 89 wRC+. He's been even worse lately, hitting .204/.271/.259 in August.

At this point an at-bat from the catcher doesn't project to carry much value, particularly in a future part of the game that's unlikely to transpire.

Schneider was quick to point out that what actually happened was awfully improbable as well.

"The odds of a medium-depth fly ball with an average-throwing outfielder and Kirky at third was probably last on my bingo card," he said.

That sounds reasonable on the surface, but it implies that the only way not pinch-running for Kirk might have hurt the Blue Jays was the way it happened. That's simply not true.

When Kirk was on second, Varsho might've hit a single that would score most runners, but not the catcher. After the wild pitch, Varsho may have hit a grounder that could get McCoy but not Kirk in. Nationals reliever Hunter Harvey could've thrown another ball in the dirt that escaped his backstop — but not by enough for a slow runner to score.

There are plenty of ways this decision could've hurt the Blue Jays. Just because one of them was individually unlikely doesn't mean the totality of them wasn't noteworthy.

A big hit from Varsho in eighth — or one of Davis Schneider, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Danny Jansen — could've easily erased this move by the Blue Jays manager from history. John Schneider can reasonably feel that he got a bit unlucky on Tuesday night.

While that may be true, a manager's job is to put his team in the best position to win and he simply didn't rise to that standard.

Not only that, but there were clear holes in Schneider's reasoning, from a misplaced desire to hold a player in reserve, to overvaluing the possibility of a Kirk at-bat in a distant inning unlikely to happen, to the lionization of the tying run rather than any run when his team had too few outs left to be making that distinction.

The decision could've easily been a small blunder, and it's unfortunate for Schneider that it ballooned into a big one. That kind of misfortune has seemed to dog the Blue Jays this season, but to some degree you make your own luck. That's what the skipper did on Tuesday, and his team suffered for it.