Will Joe Brady make a difference, will Von Miller be benched? Questions for Bills vs Jets

ORCHARD PARK - With Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills’ dysfunctional offense in the midst of an identity crisis which has prompted midseason coaching upheaval - a first in the Sean McDermott/Brandon Beane era - the last thing they need right now is the New York Jets coming to town Sunday afternoon.

Buffalo’s brutal remaining schedule features several teams much better than the Jets - Super Bowl contenders such as the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and maybe even the Dolphins - but there is no team that has given Buffalo more trouble lately than Robert Saleh’s Jets.

The third-year coach has built one of the NFL’s elite defenses, and no one knows its destructive nature more than Allen who has endured some of his worst performances against Gang Green.

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Back in Week 1 - which, little did we know at the time was a precursor of the struggles that have come since - Allen played one of the worst games of his career as he committed four turnovers that single-handedly allowed the Jets to shock the Bills 22-16 in overtime.

Last season, he played poorly in both games - a 20-17 loss in New York when he completed just 52.9% of his passes for 205 yards with two interceptions, and then in a narrow 20-12 victory at home when he completed 59.3% for a mere 147 yards.

Saleh seems to have found the secret sauce when it comes to defending Allen and the Bills, and coaches around the league have paid heed because Buffalo’s once-dynamic offense has been neutered in 2023.

This is part of the reason why McDermott canned offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey on Tuesday and promoted QB coach Joe Brady in the hope that he can figure out how to attack this Jets defense that, to be fair, gives most of the other teams it faces plenty of trouble.

Here are three questions I have as the Bills, now in a must-win situation every week, try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

1. Will the switch from Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady make a difference?

Firing Dorsey was a move that probably had to be made, but the reality is that his offense is the one the Bills are going to continue running for the final seven games because you can’t just rip up the playbook and install a new system in the middle of November.

Yes, Brady will have his own spin on some of the concepts that are already in place, and he may sequence his play calls a little differently, but that’s really all a team that makes a coaching change midstream can do. Once the season is over, whether it’s Brady or someone else in the offensive coordinator role, that person can then start fresh with his scheme and begin teaching it to the players when OTAs start in the spring.

For now, I really don’t think you’re going to notice much newness as the Bills will continue to run primarily three-wide receiver sets with Dalton Kincaid as the tight end and James Cook as the lead back because that’s who they are, especially with Dawson Knox still out. They don’t have a choice.

A few things Brady could do within the existing scheme is to put Allen under center more often (especially in short yardage and goal line situations); perhaps he could utilize more play action; and lastly, maybe incorporate more motion and pre-snap shifting in an effort to help Allen recognize what types of coverages are being played.

Many fans are pining for running back Leonard Fournette to be called up from the practice squad and injected into the offense. OK, sure. If Fournette is actually ready to play, meaning he’s in game shape and understands enough of the playbook to be used in certain packages, his power running style, pass catching ability, and acumen in blitz pickup are all things he’s known for, and all three attributes could theoretically help. I’m just not sure Fournette, clearly on the downside of his career, would be the difference-maker this offense really needs.

2. Should the Bills bench Von Miller?

Yes, absolutely, 100%. If the titanic struggles of the offense are the most obvious problem the Bills are dealing with right now, very close behind is the complete lack of anything that the future Hall of Famer is giving the defense.

I’ve made this point several times already, but I’ll make it again: No matter what Miller says in his never-ending quest to be positive and upbeat, he was not ready to return to action. He wasn’t ready in Week 5 when he debuted against the Jaguars, and he’s not ready six games later, only now we have six games of clear-cut data to prove the point.

Miller has played 125 snaps this season and he has two tackles, six QB pressures and no sacks. He is being defeated one-on-one by every blocker he goes against, and Monday night, McDermott finally came to the realization that having Miller on the field for the Broncos’ final possession would have been like playing with 10 players, so he benched him.

Now, you can be funny and point out that Miller wasn’t on the field and the Broncos drove to the game-winning score, but I’m pretty sure you’d just be arguing that point for the fun of it because Miller would not have made an ounce of difference. The Bills got pressure on Russell Wilson on that drive, but he was able to escape and make a few big plays.

Every snap Miller is playing is a snap that A.J. Epenesa, or Greg Rousseau, or Leonard Floyd, or Shaq Lawson isn’t. For that matter, Kingsley Jonathan who has played a grand total of 14 snaps in the past five games.

It feels to me that McDermott and the coaching staff is reluctant to bench Miller because of the career he has and the respect they have for him, rather than facing the cold hard truth that Miller is a shell of the player he has been.

Is this going to change? Will McDermott actually have the temerity to make Miller an inactive player Sunday against the Jets, or at any point in the future? I doubt it. But it’s pretty clear that he should.

3. Are the Bills already looking ahead to 2024?

They would never admit that publicly, but the case can be made that firing Dorsey and turning to Brady is already a nod in that direction, basically a seven-game audition to see if Brady is the man to lead this offense next year and beyond.

The Bills are in a near impossible playoff situation thanks to inexcusable losses to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos. When the schedule was released, it was readily apparent that they were going to need to bulk up early and bank victories - eight in the first 10 games seemed perfectly doable - so that they had a little margin for error when the gantlet began.

Having won only five of the first 10, dealing with crippling injuries on defense, and an offense that has lost its way, not even Miller and his overflowing full glass can possibly think the Bills can win six of their last seven games which is what it will probably take to have a chance in the stacked AFC.

Seriously, is this team going to win six of seven against the Jets, Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots and Dolphins? The only legitimate chance the Bills have is if first-place Miami completely falls apart and blows the AFC East title.

For those of you wondering if that’s possible, while the Bills are negotiating through their meatgrinder schedule, the Dolphins have this far less challenging finish: vs. Raiders, at Jets, at Commanders, vs. Titans, vs. Jets, vs. Cowboys, at Ravens, vs. Bills. That’s right, five home games compared to three on the road, and six of those games (including two against New York) are against teams currently at .500 or below.

What about the wild-card race? Forget it. Heading into Week 11 the Bills are in 10th place in the AFC and trail five teams in the fight for three spots. In tie-breaking scenarios, they lose head-to-head to the Bengals and Jaguars (if Jacksonville loses the AFC South), while their 2-5 conference record is 15th-worst in the 16-team conference ahead of only the 1-4 Bengals. Even the Patriots, Broncos, Jets and Titans (all 2-4) have better AFC records.

You never say never in the crazy NFL, but it would take a miracle for Buffalo to clear all the obstacles necessary to make the postseason for a fifth straight year.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which comes out twice a week during the season, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Joe Brady's impact, Von Miller's role among Bills vs Jets questions