James Harden back to Houston? Here’s how the Rockets can pull it off
For the third year in a row, we are getting reports of James Harden setting his sights elsewhere. According to ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, Harden is seriously considering a return to the Rockets this offseason. This report comes on the eve of the Sixers extending their winning streak to eight games, which makes it surprising especially given its timing. The idea of Harden leaving a contending Sixers team for a rebuilding Rockets team could be hard to believe for some, but according to Wojnarowski, the comfort and familiarity of Houston appeal to Harden.
Below is a breakdown of Harden’s contract situation and how the Rockets can acquire him.
How it happens
The Rockets are set to be a cap space team with the dead money of John Wall, Derrick Favors, and others set to come off their books. How much cap space they will have is fluid but they are projected to have around $30 million at the lowest end. They could get closer to $50 million if they waive Eric Gordon whose $20.9 million salary for 2023-24 is non-guaranteed.
If Harden wants to sign with Houston, they will be able to generate however much cap space is necessary to do so. For Houston, bringing back Harden this offseason would come at a convenient moment in their timeline. They are set to make their third high lottery selection in a row and already have a roster loaded with young talent. It only makes sense that they start to transition into a more competitive phase, especially since they’re unlikely to keep their 2024 first-round pick. The Rockets still owe the Thunder first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 that are only 1-4 protected as part of the 2019 Russell Westbrook trade.
While championship contention appears farfetched, Harden could push this young Rockets team closer toward the play-in tournament early on. This experience could be exactly what this roster needs to take the next step, similar to how the Grizzlies and Pelicans have evolved after their play-in appearances. Harden would slide in seamlessly as their starting point guard and would help advance the progressions of their top prospects like Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun.
On the surface, this report could appear as a leverage play to pressure the Sixers to give Harden a lucrative deal in the 2023 offseason. He declined his $47 million player option and took a $14 million pay cut to give the Sixers the flexibility to sign both PJ Tucker and De’Anthony Melton in free agency. Harden has a $35.6 million player option for 2022-23 which he can decline to enter unrestricted free agency. If he declines it, the Sixers will still have his full Bird rights, meaning they can re-sign him for up to his respective maximum salary, currently projected at five years, $272 million.
Because Harden re-signed with the Sixers on a two-year deal with a player option on year two, his Bird rights would be reduced to Non-Bird if traded this season. This means that his new team would only be able to re-sign him for up to a 120 percent raise with 5 percent raises (four years, $149 million). However, this would not be an issue for the Rockets since they would be able to sign him for more with their cap space.
Harden walking in free agency would present a major setback in the Sixers’ contention prospects. They gave up a lot for him, including Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and two first-round picks. They wouldn’t be able to replace him since they wouldn’t have significant cap space if he leaves. But things continue to go well in Philadelphia into the playoffs, he seems like a good bet to re-sign with them.
[listicle id=1735639]
[listicle id=1735956]
[listicle id=1816689]
