Jake Oswalt Will Pirates take Crews or Skenes with top pick?

Jul. 8—Ever since the Pittsburgh Pirates won the inaugural draft lottery in December, dedicated fans of the team have been following the top prospects who will be selected starting on Sunday in the 2023 Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft.

Louisiana State University junior center fielder Dylan Crews was ranked No. 1 throughout the entire season by most media outlets that cover the draft. The two-time Southeastern Conference player of the year put together another fine season in the best league in the country in 2023.

Crews helped the Tigers win the NCAA Division I College World Series title on June 26 in Omaha.

His teammate, right-hander hurler Paul Skenes, emerged as the top college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg in 2009 this spring. The 6-foot-6, 250-pound pitcher was a two-way player at the Air Force Academy his first two seasons and transferred to Louisiana State for his junior campaign. Learning from former MLB pitching coach Wes Johnson, Skenes ascended in 2023 and is ranked as the top draft prospect ahead of Crews by MLBPipeline.com.

Pittsburgh will likely choose between Crews or Skenes when the first round of the draft begins at 7 p.m. Sunday.

University of Florida outfielder Wyatt Langford and high-school outfielders Max Clark (Indiana) and Walker Jenkins (North Carolina) are highly rated as well.

The Pirates have $16,185,700 to spend on their draft class, the largest pool out of any team this year. The No. 1 selection holds a slot value of a record $9,721,000.

Pittsburgh has the No. 1 overall pick for the sixth time in franchise history. It took Henry Davis (2021), Gerrit Cole (2011), Bryan Bullington (2002), Kris Benson (1996) and Jeff King (1986) with its prior No. 1 picks. The Pirates have the top pick for the second time in three years. It represents another opportunity to land an impact player as Pittsburgh tries to become contenders again.

Who will the Pirates select with the top pick on Sunday? We'll focus in on the two LSU stars. Ironically, Crews hit his first collegiate homer off Skenes in 2021.

Crews is a right-handed-hitting center fielder. The 21-year-old is 6-foot tall and weighs 205 pounds. He improved his plate discipline in 2023, drawing 71 walks compared to 46 strikeouts. The Florida native reached base in all 71 games for the Tigers.

He hit .426 with 16 doubles, two triples, 18 home runs and 70 RBIs. He slugged .713 and got on base at a .567 clip in 2023.

In his first two seasons, Crews compiled 81 walks and struck out 100 times.

The outfielder grades out as a 70 hitter on the 20-80 scouting scale. Crews controls the strike zone well and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. He ranks among the top prospects over the past five drafts. Crews possesses the athleticism to stay in center field as well.

Skenes is an intriguing prospect on the rise. As one SEC commentator said during one of his starts, he has "elite athleticism with closer's stuff." He averaged 94-95 mph on his fastball during the 2022 season with Air Force. Skenes' fastball hovered around the 98 mph range in 2023 and topped out at 103. He threw 46 pitches clocked at 100 mph or higher in his College World Series start against Tennessee.

He possesses an 80 fastball, an elite scouting grade. A slider that grades out at 70 and an improving changeup has scouts salivating imagining Skenes' massive potential. He didn't pitch on the travel circuit a lot when he was in high school, so there is not a lot of tread on the tire.

This past season was the first one in which he focused solely on pitching.

Skenes' arrow is clearly pointing up as he has the size and strength to become a workhorse in the rotation.

As a freshman, Skenes was the only Division I player with double-digit home runs (11) and saves (11) as he was named Mountain West Conference freshman of the year.

He hit .410 with 21 doubles, 43 RBIs and a .697 slugging percentage. He posted a 2.70 ERA with 30 strikeouts and nine walks in 262/3 innings.

The California native earned the 2022 John Olerud Award given to the top two-way player in the country. He recorded a 2.73 ERA with 96 punchouts and 30 walks in 852/3 innings. He hit .314, slugged .634 and posted totals of 10 doubles, 13 home runs and 38 RBIs as he caught and played the outfield.

Skenes' production reached another stratosphere in 2023. He went 13-2 with a 1.69 ERA in 19 starts, which included two complete games. Skenes amassed an SEC-record 209 strikeouts and only walked 20 batters in 1222/3 frames. Opposing batters mustered a .165 average against Skenes in 2023. When the stakes were high, Skenes provided his best performances. He struck out 12 Tennessee batters over 72/3 innings in Omaha. Skenes fanned nine Wake Forest batters and allowed two hits over eight innings in a winner-take-all game to reach the College World Series championship series.

Throughout the season, I was high on Pittsburgh taking Crews with the top pick.

However, after seeing Skenes pitch on television a few times, my mind has changed. The small-market Pirates have no chance at acquiring an elite starting pitcher such as Skenes in free agency. Trading for a starter will cost plenty in terms of prospect capital. Drafting and having club control of him for six years is the only way for Pittsburgh to net an elite starting pitcher such as Skenes.

Pittsburgh will need elite starting pitching if it wants to contend over the next few seasons when its competitive window will likely be open.

While there are always injury concerns when drafting a pitcher, Skenes' massive potential may overshadow those doubts. A position player can make an impact over the course of a 162-game season, while starting pitchers likely toe the rubber 30 times a year.

Pittsburgh has loaded up on position players early in drafts over the past few years in taking Nick Gonzales, Davis and Termarr Johnson since 2020. The Pirates have a bevy of pitching prospects in Quinn Priester, Anthony Solometo, Bubba Chandler, Mike Burrows, Jared Jones, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco, Kyle Nicolas and Michael Kennedy. How many of them will pan out? As the old adage goes, you never have enough pitching.

There is a report that Scott Boras-client Crews is seeking $10 million for a signing bonus. That may sway Pittsburgh into taking Skenes instead.

Adding Skenes would give the Pirates a massive lift as they transition from rebuilding to contending over the next few years.

Jake Oswalt is a copy editor for The Tribune-Democrat. Follow him on Twitter @TheWizOfOz11.