Jaguars' Midseason Grades: Defense, special teams earn highest marks, offense must step up
The hottest team in the NFL is primed for a second-half surge that could take the ascending Jacksonville Jaguars to the ultimate destination that has forever eluded them.
One of only four teams that has never reached a Super Bowl, the Jaguars are locked in a four-way tie for the best AFC record. Jacksonville has an easier remaining schedule than the other co-leaders — Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins — though Sunday’s KC-Miami winner in Germany gains a potential tiebreaker edge over the top contenders.
But being 6-2 at the halfway point of the NFL season, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the offense still battling consistency issues, the Jaguars loom as a legitimate AFC threat to the Chiefs and others if that unit can find a higher gear like it did in the second half of 2022.
Outside linebacker Josh Allen, having a career season at the right time on an expiring contract, put it best about the state of the team after last week’s 20-10 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, saying: “We keep winning games by not playing our best game. Once we hit that peak, it’s going to be something real pretty to look at.”
While the 6-2 Miami Dolphins are probably accumulating more style points with their pyrotechnic offense, the Jaguars are in the thick of contention for a No. 1 AFC playoff seed for different reasons.
Who's better through 8 games? The 6-2 Miami Dolphins or the 6-2 Jacksonville Jaguars
They have learned to seize control of games behind a takeaway-fixated defense, along with the team mindset of simply playing faster and more confidently. All of that is buttressed by being in the second year of systems implemented by head coach Doug Pederson and defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell.
Through eight games, the Jaguars have completely flipped the script. They have gone from 2-6 and on a five-game losing streak at this point last year, to 6-2 and entering the bye week on a five-game winning streak and in command of the AFC South division.
With quarterback Trevor Lawrence, Allen and the Jaguars’ core players having more time together and Pederson’s culture well established, their margin for error has increased exponentially.
This team can win ugly if necessary. Despite the Jaguars going into offensive lulls, they’re winning games that just didn’t happen a year ago because the defense and special teams are making up for shortcomings.
A big reason why is the Jaguars are getting off to better starts and consistently playing with a lead. They have led for 292 minutes out of 480 minutes of football, compared to 95:14 for opponents.
During the current five-game win streak, the Jaguars have trailed for only 7:10, coming after the opening field-goal drive by the Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. In back-to-back losses to the Houston Texans and KC, the Jaguars only led for 12:31 at 3-0 in the second quarter against the Chiefs.
Last week was a prime example of the new-look Jaguars not being undone by adverse circumstances. They overcame two red-zone turnovers, including maybe the most dreadful interception of Lawrence’s career, and still beat the Steelers on the road by double-digits. It was a classic sign of how much the Jaguars have matured from a year ago.
When a Lawrence red-zone interception surfaced in 2022 at home against the Texans and in London against the Denver Broncos, the result was losses to two of the AFC’s three worst teams.
It’s a different vibe now. A 5-0 October, after suffering home defeats to Kansas City and Houston, has gained the Jaguars a modest amount of national attention.
That will only heighten if they can win at least half of their toughest four remaining games — the San Francisco 49ers next week, and three consecutive December matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens, two in prime-time at EverBank Stadium.
What should be encouraging is besides expected improvement from an offense that needs to operate with greater efficiency, the Jaguars have the easier schedule among the four AFC co-leaders.
The combined record of the Jaguars’ remaining opponents is 32-35, compared to 41-27 for Baltimore, 39-30 for Miami and 35-34 for Kansas City.
By no means were the Jaguars a great team in the first half. But like all the other AFC contenders, they had enough great moments to remind everybody that last year’s surge to erase a four-game deficit and overtake the Tennessee Titans for the AFC South title was no fluke.
The Jaguars are in strong position to win a second consecutive division crown for the first time since the 1998-99 seasons.
Whether they can pry a No. 1 playoff seed from a crowded AFC field is another matter. As this midseason report card shows, a lot may depend on a Lawrence-led offense finding the end zone more often in the second half.
Offense: C
Nobody figured the Jaguars to be 6-2 with the offense looking so average in every facet, though plenty of individual performances from some playmakers have been outstanding, particularly running back Travis Etienne.
Lawrence is unquestionably a better quarterback than a year ago. However, one thing that raises a bit of concern is a pedestrian nine touchdown passes (same as last year after eight games), tied for 16th among NFL quarterbacks with a minimum 200 attempts.
The rest of Trevor’s pertinent numbers — 185 completions in 271 attempts (68.3 percent), yards per attempt (7.1), the fourth-lowest interception rate in the NFL at 1.47 percent, a 93.6 quarterback rating — are solid, but certainly don’t fit the definition of explosive.
While the Jaguars are averaging 24.1 points per game, slightly above 23.7 for all of 2022, they’ve simply left too many points on the field. This unit isn’t taking enough advantage of the ideal field position given by the defense’s league-leading 18 takeaways.
A big reason for that is the Jaguars are below-average in moving the chains. A third-down conversion rate of 35.5 percent (38 of 107) is 22nd in the NFL, and that disappointment is compounded by only gaining 12 of 21 first downs when combining third-and-1 and fourth-and-1 chances.
Looking deeper into the third-down inefficiency, the Jaguars are only 2 of 11 in third-and-2 situations and an astounding 2 of 35 — that's not a misprint — when facing third-and-8 or longer. One of those conversions was a third-and-10 touchdown pass to backup tight end Brenton Strange at home against Indianapolis.
With a quarterback as talented as Lawrence, plus having one of the NFL’s best receiving corps in Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and tight end Evan Engram, those numbers are troubling.
Of the 56 times the Jaguars have crossed midfield (excluding kneel-downs at end of games), they have only 18 offensive TDs and 17 field goals. Too many promising drives are coming up empty.
So far, Etienne has been the offensive MVP, combining for 849 yards rushing and receiving, along with eight TDs, including the longest scoring reception of the season of 56 yards against Pittsburgh.
At his current pace, Etienne would tie Maurice Jones-Drew for the single-season record of 15 rushing TDs and become the Jaguars’ first 300-carry back since Jones-Drew in 2011. He has 12 of the team’s 23 rushes of 10-plus yards, including TD runs of 26, 35, 22 and 17 yards, while Lawrence has nine on scrambles.
But Etienne’s workload — considering he missed his 2021 rookie season with a Lisfranc injury and left the Steelers’ game briefly with an ankle injury — is something the Jaguars will have to monitor closely over the next two months.
So far, Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor have been hesitant to run third-round draft pick Tank Bigsby, who has had fumbling issues, and veteran D’Ernest Johnson even less so. They have only 32 combined carries, a number that has to climb to keep Etienne a little fresher for the stretch run.
The health of Etienne, and obviously Lawrence (he played after suffering a knee injury against Indianapolis), is paramount. This offense would be severely diminished by losing either one of them for a significant amount of time.
Even the loss of Jones (knee), a valuable red-zone weapon, for most of the season has made the passing game slightly less effective. A good part of that is an offensive line enduring some attrition issues.
Left tackle Cam Robinson is back after missing the first four games due to a PED suspension, but his replacement, Walker Little, has been out or not played the last three weeks with a knee injury. Right guard Brandon Scherff has had to gut through some games with ankle issues.
The Jaguars took steps to improve the shakiest part of the O-line in the interior by acquiring guard Ezra Cleveland from the Minnesota Vikings. He could slide into the starting left guard spot, allowing Tyler Shatley to move back into a swing role at guard and center.
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With the O-line a fluid situation — tackles Robinson and improving rookie first-round draft pick Anton Harrison have been stabilizing factors — the obvious concern is Lawrence’s protection. He has already been sacked 19 times, on pace for a much bigger number than last year when the Jaguars allowed 28 sacks.
Lawrence has plenty of viable weapons, but he also needs the time to make the chunk plays that help an offense get to the end zone. The Jaguars have 23 pass completions of 20-plus yards, tied for 12th. Receivers have also drawn nine pass interference penalties, most of them by Ridley with his ability to stretch the field.
Kirk (43 catches, 520 yards), Ridley (33-451) and Engram (51-434) all have a chance for 1,000-yard seasons, but that may not happen unless the offense finds a way to hit more big plays or stay on the field longer.
This offense is doing enough to win games, but it must be better in the second half for the Jaguars to advance in the postseason.
Defense: A-minus
Who saw this coming? The idea of the defense being the strongest part of the team isn’t something many people would have guessed after it finished 24th last year in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed (20.6 ppg).
However, the Jaguars did become a takeaway force in the second half of last season, finishing with 27 forced turnovers that tied for fifth in the NFL.
When he went up against that defense every day throughout preseason, Kirk had an inkling that it might be a force in 2023.
“Going against them in training camp in a live setting, feeling their intensity and the different amount of looks that they can get to, just to disguise what they’re doing,” Kirk said. “You have a lot of veteran guys back there that play at a high level.
“Training camp, for sure, was the eye-opener, [thinking] ‘We got a real defense.’ ”
And that has indeed become reality. The Jaguars aren’t the 1985 Chicago Bears or 2000 Baltimore Ravens, but Caldwell’s unit has erased the perception of past defenses being a liability.
This defense is faster, swarms to the ball, stops the run and a secondary led by cornerbacks Tyson Campbell and a vastly-improved Darious Williams, as well as safety Andre Cisco, are making life difficult for receivers to get those explosive plays.
The Jaguars are on pace to have 38 takeaways, which would easily shatter the franchise record of 33 set in 2017.
Williams, an undrafted free agent and Creekside High product, leads the NFL with 14 pass breakups and also has three interceptions, one returned for a 61-yard touchdown against the Falcons. He narrowly missed getting two more picks last week on Steelers quarterbacks Kenny Pickett and Mitch Trubisky.
The Jaguars have 52 pass defenses, more than anybody in the league except the New Orleans Saints (55). Whether it’s passes getting tipped at the line or sticky coverage by the secondary, the Jaguars continue to get their hands on balls after leading the NFL in that category last season with 95.
Five current players, including tackling machine and inside linebacker Foye Oluokun, have at least five pass breakups. Two weeks ago, with Campbell sidelined by a hamstring, Montaric Brown had two pass defenses, including the game-deciding play when he blanketed Saints’ receiver Chris Olave in the end zone to preserve the Jaguars’ 31-24 victory.
Considering the Jaguars are tied for 19th in pressure percentage on quarterbacks (20.4 percent), according to Pro Football Reference, it speaks volumes about the Jaguars' instincts and communication that Caldwell’s defenders are so disruptive on the back end.
Allen, along with Oluokun and Williams, is playing at a Pro Bowl level. He’s providing the best pass-rush of his career, accumulating nine of the team’s 16 sacks, putting him third in the league behind the Minnesota Vikings’ Danielle Hunter and the Steelers' T.J. Watt. He also leads the team in quarterback hits with 16.
Travon Walker, who plays the opposite side from Allen and draws more double teams, is next with 3.5 sacks. Though he has yet to live up to being a No. 1 overall draft pick as a pass-rusher, Walker is an important part of a stout run defense that is fourth in the league (79.2 yards per game) and allows just 3.6 yards per rush.
Along the interior, space-eating linemen Foley Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris are getting the necessary push to keep the opponents’ ground game in check. Just three teams have rushed for 100 yards on the Jaguars and only one back, Atlanta rookie Bijan Robinson, has hit the century mark with 105 yards.
Being stingy against the run has made opposing defenses one-dimensional, making it easier for Caldwell’s unit to force turnovers and help the Jaguars get early leads that hold up.
But what makes this defense potentially special is its ability to come through in big moments. They have allowed only two quarterbacks, Houston’s C.J. Stroud and Buffalo’s Josh Allen, to lead three touchdown drives on them.
When the defense goes back on the field after an offensive turnover, it has yet to allow a touchdown and only allowed four field goals in those situations.
It’s hard to imagine this defense playing at a much higher level, allowing just 16 TDs and 10 field goals in 96 possessions. Opponents have also gone off the field within three plays 34 times.
Things are looking up for the second half because some important pieces have returned. Effective rotational pass-rusher Dawuane Smoot is back from a torn Achilles, while nose tackle DaVon Hamilton was on the field for 14 snaps last week after missing the entire season with a back infection.
The Jaguars now have their deepest D-line unit since 2017. They’re getting strong play not just from starters Fatukasi and Robertson-Harris, but backups Angelo Blackson (three fumble recoveries) and Adam Gotsis are more than just token contributors.
Oluokun sums up the success of the defense perfectly when he said: “Our sum is better than our parts. I depend on everybody like they depend on me.”
Kirk was right. The Jaguars finally have a real defense.
Special teams: B-plus
A unit that has traditionally been the Jaguars’ most consistent has gotten even better with the addition of strong-legged placekicker Brandon McManus, who became available when the Denver Broncos released him after nine productive seasons.
This year, away from the altitude of the Rocky Mountains, the 32-year-old placekicker is having his best season. He has made 17 of 19 field goals for a career-high of 89.5 percent, including kicks from 50 yards and 51 yards last week in rainy conditions at Pittsburgh.
McManus’ only bad day coincided with arguably the worst game by the special teams in franchise history, that Week 3 loss to the Texans. On a day where everything went wrong for Heath Farwell’s unit, McManus missed his first attempt from 48 yards wide right, then had a 51-yarder blocked when the Jaguars missed a blocking assignment.
Making matters worse that day was after the Jaguars whittled a 17-0 deficit to 17-10, the kick coverage team allowed fullback Andrew Beck — after he lost the ball colliding with a teammate — to run 85 yards for a touchdown. It was one of only two kick return TDs in the NFL this season, joining Denver’s Marvin Mims Jr.
The addition of McManus with his big leg has made it easier for the Jaguars to be more aggressive trying long field goals. McManus is already 4 of 5 on kicks from 50-plus yards. Last year, they attempted only three kicks beyond that same distance with Riley Patterson.
Speaking of big legs, the presence of punter Logan Cooke along with McManus gives the Jaguars one of the best 1-2 punch kick specialists in the league. Cooke has been as consistently good at his job as any other Jaguar in the past five years.
When you add standout punt/kick returner Jamal Agnew to the mix, it’s no wonder why the Jaguars’ special teams unit can be the difference between winning and losing.
Agnew did just that in the season-opening win at Indianapolis. When the Colts seized control on a strip-sack TD, Agnew flipped the momentum with a 48-yard punt return. As the gunner lost sight of the bouncing ball, it went right into Agnew’s belly at his own 6, where he took off and got into Colts’ territory to set up a game-winning TD.
His 10.6-yard punt return average is seventh in the NFL and Agnew’s 28.7-yard kick return average is second only to Mims.
Cooke, who has the best net punting average (minimum 300 punts) in NFL history at 43.3 yards, is tied for fourth in that category this season at 44.2 yards.
But what makes Cooke special is location. All he cares about is sending the returner to a spot where a return is near impossible. Cooke absolutely loathes a punt getting into the end zone for a touchback, which happened on a fourth quarter punt against the Steelers.
“I’d rather shank a punt from out of my own end zone,” said Cooke. “Just talking about a touchback gets me mad. I was losing my mind on that one.”
Of his 32 punts, an NFL-high 20 (62.5 percent) have died inside the 20. Only two other NFL punters, the San Francisco 49ers’ Mitch Wishnowsky and the Las Vegas Raiders’ A.J. Cole, are over 50 percent.
Except for one bad day against the Texans, special teams gives the Jaguars an edge that could be pivotal as high-stakes games are approaching.
Coaching: B-plus
Despite an offense that has yet to find a consistent high gear, which likely annoys Pederson to no end, it doesn’t change the fact the Jaguars are 6-2 because of their trademark resiliency.
They responded to dreadful losses in Weeks 2 and 3 with a five-game winning streak, overcoming a tough travel schedule of back-to-back games in London and later going to New Orleans on a short week in the process.
It’s another example of how the Pederson culture instills a mindset in players to stay focused on getting better each day. The Jaguars don’t let good or bad results distract them from the business of preparing to win the next game.
Taking that whole preparation thing a step further, Caldwell is getting maximum mileage out of a defense that has a pedestrian pass rush outside of Allen.
His defense is on point, rarely having communication breakdowns that lead to bad plays. It also was the last NFL team without an enforced defensive pass interference penalty until Oluokun picked one up last week at Pittsburgh.
The Jaguars used to have a reputation as an undisciplined team that incurred too many foolish penalties. Under Pederson, players have kept that to a minimum. Their 39 penalties for 324 yards are third lowest in the NFL, behind only Philadelphia (37-290) and Cincinnati (31-237).
Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles in 2017, has created a buttoned-up organization. His team has great locker room chemistry and doesn’t let adversity or bad circumstances (seven starters have missed a combined 19 games) faze them.
That said, Pederson and Taylor must find a way for Lawrence and the offense to get into a more consistent rhythm. It could mean the difference between an early playoff exit or playing for an AFC Championship.
Pederson and his staff have the Jaguars off to a good start. The challenge will be finishing the job. It hasn’t been a perfect season, but the coaches deserve high marks for navigating a tough first half and keeping the Jaguars on a path to the postseason.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Jaguars' defense, special teams get top marks on midseason report card
