Insider: 28 things to watch in Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans AFC South matchup

INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts find themselves facing down a couple of recent demons Sunday.

Indianapolis has lost seven consecutive games at Lucas Oil Stadium, and the Colts have also lost their last five games against their biggest rival, the Tennessee Titans.

The Colts can snap both of those streaks at 1 p.m. Sunday (WTTV-4) in new coach Shane Steichen’s first matchup against the Titans, a team that remains dangerous, even if Tennessee is no longer the class of the AFC South.

Indianapolis (2-2) has been better than most expected this season; the Titans (2-2) have been a little hard to figure out. With uncertainty on both sides due to injury, here’s a look at what to watch in Sunday’s showdown against Tennessee:

How much will Jonathan Taylor play Sunday?

1. The Colts activated Jonathan Taylor on Saturday and lifted his questionable designation. From the sounds of Steichen’s final press conference, Taylor looked good in his return to the practice field. A healthy Taylor would instantly become the Colts’ No. 1 back, but considering how long it has been since he played in a game, it’s probably smart to expect Taylor to share carries with Zack Moss if he makes his 2023 debut this week.

2. Always strong up front under the leadership of Mike Vrabel, Tennessee’s defense doesn’t give up much on the ground. The Titans rank No. 1 in the NFL in yards allowed per carry, giving up just 2.89, and No. 4 overall, allowing just 70 yards per game. Finding room to run might be difficult, no matter which running back is in the game.

3. But Tennessee’s run defense hasn’t tried to stop a running quarterback like Colts rookie Anthony Richardson so far. None of the four quarterbacks the Titans have faced are considered runners — Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson uses his mobility to throw — and Richardson’s been a devastating presence, averaging 5.7 yards per carry and scoring four touchdowns so far.

4. Tennessee’s defense will also be missing its key piece in the middle. Nose tackle Teair Tart was ruled out with a toe injury on Friday, potentially leaving the Titans weak.

Impact of Colts starting a rookie 4th-round pick at left tackle

5. Rookie tackle Blake Freeland is going to have his hands full again. Freeland, a fourth-round pick, was forced into the lineup last week by Bernhard Raimann’s concussion and struggled, giving up a sack and four pressures, and with Raimann out again, the rookie goes up against a deep Titans edge rush that includes Denico Autry (4 sacks), Arden Key (2.5) and Harold Landry (1), who’s averaged nearly eight sacks per season in his four-year career.

6. Autry, the former Colt who left for Tennessee after the 2020 season, has been a force in 2023, tied for seventh in the NFL in sacks (4) and quarterback hits (8), and he can rush from anywhere on the defensive line.

7. Veteran Indianapolis center Ryan Kelly is back in the lineup after a two-game absence, replacing Wesley French, who did give up a sack last week, and Kelly will be key for a Colts front that must deal with Titans star Jeffrey Simmons, a two-time Pro Bowler who already has 2.5 sacks this season.

8. Richardson’s ability to avoid sacks will likely be key against a Titans front that has already produced 13 sacks and an impressive 28 quarterback hits this season, disrupting opponents’ passing games in the pocket.

9. If the Colts can give Richardson time — or if the rookie buys it on his own — there should be opportunities to throw downfield. Tennessee ranks 25th in the NFL in yards per dropback, allowing 7.04 despite all of the sacks.

10. The Colts need to get outside receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce involved earlier this week. Pittman Jr. and Pierce each had just one catch against the Rams, and there should be opportunities against Tennessee corners Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary. The Titans have given up the fifth-most yards to receivers in the NFL this season, allowing an average of 206.3 per game.

11. Tennessee’s secondary has picked off just one pass this season, and Richardson has thrown only one, but the Titans still have Kevin Byard at free safety, and the veteran has 27 career interceptions, making it tough to throw the ball over the middle.

12. Colts tight ends Drew Ogletree and Mo Alie-Cox helped jump-start the passing game with big plays against the Rams, and although their production has been spotty, the versatility of the Indianapolis tight ends, a group that includes Kylen Granson, means a play could come at any time.

13. Ball security will be key. Tennessee’s defense has recovered three fumbles, tied for eighth in the NFL so far and making up for the lack of interception production.

14. A Titans return unit that is averaging 9.8 yards per return gets back a healthy Kyle Philips, who averaged 12.4 yards per return last season and might look to take advantage of an Indianapolis punting unit that is giving up 11.5 yards per return so far.

DeForest Buckner vs. Derrick Henry

15. DeForest Buckner, the key piece on the Indianapolis defensive line, played hurt and on a pitch count against Los Angeles, and his absence hurt the team’s run defense, a unit that uncharacteristically allowed the Rams to average 4.6 yards per carry. Buckner was limited in practice again due to a back injury, and although he will play on Sunday — he wasn’t listed with a status for the game on the team’s final injury report — how much he’ll play could be key against Titans running back Derrick Henry.

16. If Buckner is limited again, it’s fair to wonder if the Colts might change up the rotation, playing backup nose tackle Eric Johnson instead of backup three-technique Taven Bryan, an undersized tackle who struggled against the run last week.

17. Titans superstar Derrick Henry is off to a slow start, averaging 3.9 yards on 73 carries so far, but he’s coming off a 22-carry, 122-yard performance against the Bengals, and Henry has a history of big games against the Colts. Henry has put up 100-yard games in seven of his 14 games against the Colts, and although Indianapolis is allowing 3.78 yards per carry, 10th-best in the NFL this season, the loss of Kwity Paye (concussion) and another limited game for Buckner and Grover Stewart could leave the Colts vulnerable.

18. Expect Dayo Odeyingbo to take the lion’s share of Paye’s snaps at defensive end. Odeyingbo is coming off his best game of the season, a seven-tackle, 1.5-sack performance the Colts would like to see replicated against Tennessee right tackle Chris Hubbard, who’s already given up three sacks this season.

19. New Colts defensive end Samson Ebukam has seen a string of backup tackles so far and capitalized, posting two sacks, five quarterback hits and 16 pressures, and although Titans left tackle Andre Dillard is Tennessee’s starter, he’s given up four sacks and 12 pressures of his own, handing Ebukam another favorable matchup.

20. If the Colts’ defensive line isn’t too banged up to do damage, the Indianapolis front should have the advantage when the Titans throw the ball. Tennessee quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been sacked 16 times already this season, tied for fourth-most in the NFL, and the sacks have come from all over the defensive front, meaning just about every Indianapolis lineman should have a chance to get involved.

More snaps for E.J. Speed

21. E.J. Speed has already been playing in Shaquille Leonard’s place at weak-side linebacker this season, and with Leonard out due to a groin injury, Speed should have a chance to make an impact in a game that fits his heavy-hitting style. Speed has been excellent this season, posting 19 tackles, four tackles-for-loss, a sack and two pass breakups despite playing just 50.3% of the snaps.

22. If the Titans go heavy, it will be interesting to see who takes over at Speed’s strong-side linebacker spot against Henry. Segun Olubi has played seven defensive snaps this season, and veteran Grant Stuard four, but for the most part, the linebacking trio has been Zaire Franklin, Speed and Leonard.

23. Franklin’s productivity has been remarkable. The veteran Colts linebacker entered the week leading the NFL with 57 tackles, and he’s been active in the passing game as well, picking up 1.5 sacks.

24. When the Titans have had success with Henry in the past, it’s often been by getting him on the perimeter, putting pressure on Colts strong safety Julian Blackmon, free safety Rodney Thomas II and the rest of the secondary to make tackles.

Who steps in at cornerback for the Colts?

25. Already thin at cornerback due to the Achilles injury Dallis Flowers suffered last week, defensive coordinator Gus Bradley could experiment with some three-safety looks against the Titans, a move that would put hard-hitting safety Nick Cross in the lineup against Henry.

26. Expect Tannehill to target Flowers’ replacement early and often. The Colts could use either Darrell Baker, Jr., who was benched after allowing opposing quarterbacks to pile up a 143.2 rating in the first two games, or rookie Jaylon Jones, and Tennessee can test them with star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has 18 catches for 216 yards this season, and Nick Westbrook-Ikinihe, who has 12 catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns.

27. Under fire all season, Tannehill has been a little erratic so far, completing just 62% of his throws and tossing four interceptions already, all while throwing just two touchdown passes. That might make it difficult for Tennessee to fully exploit an Indianapolis secondary that has struggled this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to average 7.03 yards per dropback, 24th in the NFL, and 263.8 yards per game, 28th in the league.

28. Watch out for rookie Titans running back Tyjae Spears, a change of pace who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry on 20 attempts so far this season.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Titans: 28 things to watch in Sunday’s AFC South showdown