Hurricanes could still win Presidents’ Trophy in final regular-season push. Is it worth it?

The Carolina Hurricanes hadn’t seen much of the Boston Bruins prior to the teams’ game at PNC Arena Thursday night. Playing in different divisions of the same conference, the Canes and Bruins meet only three times in the regular season. This was the second of those three this season, with the Bruins earning a 4-1 win to avenge a January loss in Boston.

Brad Marchand scored early for the Bruins, David Pastrnak had a goal and an assist and Jeremy Swayman outdueled Frederik Andersen to lead Boston to the win.

Last year, the Canes and Bruins probably should have seen more of each other in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Alas, the Florida Panthers happened — to both teams.

What the eighth-seeded Panthers did to the Canes — sweeping them in the Eastern Conference Final — cut Carolina fans deeply.

But what Florida did to Boston, ousting the Bruins down in the first round of the playoffs? That was excruciating, mostly because the Bruins to that point were being mentioned among the greatest teams of all time. They ran roughshod over the NHL to the tune of 65 wins and 135 points. They easily earned the Presidents’ Trophy as the league’s regular-season champion. The closest team? Carolina, with 113.

Thus, another Presidents’ Trophy winner failed to win a Stanley Cup. That’s happened more often than not since the NHL started handing out the modern version of the trophy in the 1985-86 season. When the lowly Montreal Canadiens — behind rookie keeper Patrick Roy — shocked Wayne Gretzky’s high-flying Edmonton Oilers to win the Stanley Cup, Presidents’ Trophy winners were officially 0-for-1. The Oilers came back the following season and won both, evening the record at 1-1. Things have only gotten worse since, and it’s been really bad the past two decades: No team with the most points in the regular season has won the Stanley Cup since the Chicago Blackhawks in 2013. Before that? The 2008 Detroit Red Wings.

With the Bruins again chasing the Presidents’ Trophy — Thursday’s win over the Canes puts them one point back of the Rangers’ 106 – and with Carolina also in the conversation at 101 points, it may be fair to wonder: With playoff berths locked up, do the teams care about finishing first overall?

Should they?

A Presidents’ Trophy curse?

Superstitious fans and players alike have speculated that the Presidents’ Trophy is cursed, and it’s better not to win it at all.

Using stats, a case can be made that the trophy is, in fact, cursed — but not by anything supernatural. Instead, factors such as the implementation of the draft lottery, the salary cap, scheduling, and the ebb and flow of divisional strength have been common links in years when the trophy winner fails to lift the Cup.

Let’s start with the draft lottery and salary cap. In place since 1994-95, the NHL instituted the lottery to discourage teams from tanking to get the best draft picks. It hasn’t completely worked, though teams will never admit to it. Add in salary cap restrictions in place since the 2004-05 season, which make it next to impossible to stockpile high-end players for any length of time. The window to assemble a bona fide championship contending team has shrunk, and as teams rebuild with good, young players, teams that start slowly as they assimilate new talent at the beginning of the year are perhaps hitting their stride as the playoffs begin.

Scheduling, and the ebb and flow of divisional strength go together, as well.

Since 2017-18, the Presidents’ Trophy winner has been in the same division as the team that finished dead last in the NHL in half of those seasons. The 2022-23 Bruins were the same, finishing a whopping 67 points ahead of the Canadiens in the Atlantic.

The argument, then, is that teams finishing atop the league standings are earning more points against inferior opponents throughout the season, and are not as battle-tested when it comes time to face the top teams in the league in the playoffs.

The curse then, may be real, if not supernatural, something for the Canes — and Bruins — to ponder in the season’s final week.

Stranger things happen

The first period of the Hurricanes-Bruins game Thursday saw two anomalies conspire to put the Canes in an unfamiliar position.

In the team’s previous 11 games, Carolina’s top line of Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel and Seth Jarvis had combined for more than 40 points, and had done so without allowing a goal against.

Thursday, in the first period, that group was on the ice for two Boston goals.

Meanwhile, since his return from the injured list, Andersen hadn’t allowed more than two goals in a single game, and had allowed just eight total goals in seven starts.

Thursday, in the first period, he allowed three.

Those two things allowed the Bruins to build a 3-0 lead and silenced the sellout crowd headed into the first intermission.

Finding their legs

For just the second time since the NHL All-Star Game and adjacent bye week, the Hurricanes had four days off between games this week. On one hand, it was good to get a bit of extra time to heal any outstanding battle wounds before the stretch run to the playoffs. On the other, against the division-leading Bruins, time off could have equated to rust.

In the first period, the Bruins took advantage of some flat-footed plays by the Canes’ defenders, three times catching Carolina by surprise with long outlet passes for breakaways.

One of those, by Marchand, resulted in the first goal of the night. The Bruins also outshot the Hurricanes 12-8 in the opening frame, something that’s not at all characteristic of the Canes this season.

The difference in the second was noticeable. Carolina flipped the shot totals — 11-6 in its favor in the second — and also the scoreboard, though not enough to even the score.

The Canes’ second-period score came on a 5-on-3 power play when Guentzel forced the puck through Swayman from the right post, cutting the team’s deficit to two at 3-1.