High School Football: Diving into Pace's snub from the 2023 state playoffs

Six Pensacola-area football programs learned Sunday that their ticket was punched to the big dance.

But much of the conversation that morning was about the one local team that wasn’t invited.

Despite capturing its first eight-win season in more than a decade and ending the regular season with the second-highest FHSAA ranking among all area teams, Pace’s 2023 campaign came to a premature conclusion after failing to qualify for the state playoffs in Region 1-4S.

“It just wasn’t meant to be, and all that I can tell the kids is life's not fair. You will learn as you go through life that things don't go your way that you really have no control over. And we have no control over this,” Pace head coach Kent Smith said. “Our kids, I felt like, did what they needed to do to be in the playoffs with a chance to possibly go a long ways in the playoffs.”

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The Patriots finished tied with Pensacola Catholic with the area’s best record at 8-2. The team’s first defeat was a 21-7 loss in Week 2 at home to Lincoln, the sixth-ranked team in Class 3S, currently. Pace ripped off five straight wins immediately after before falling in a 25-24 heartbreaker during Week 9 at home against eventual District 1-4S champion Navarre.

Still, the Patriots held a postseason spot throughout the season, but even with a 35-7 victory over Lafayette in their regular-season finale last Friday, they were surpassed by Creekside (6-4) for the region’s final at-large berth. The Knights earned a 26-21 home win over Ponte Vedra (7-3) in Week 11.

The two teams were separated by a mere 0.303 rating points as Creekside (10.597) finished fifth in the region while Pace (10.294) was sixth. In most seasons, that would be enough to get in, but with district winners getting an automatic bid and district champions Navarre, Nease and Mosley finishing seventh, eighth and 10th, respectively, it meant that the Patriots were the odd man out.

Suddenly, a year that was filled with success and had so much promise was over. When the brackets were announced, many of the players, coaches and supporters took to social media to express their frustration. That included senior athlete Xakery Wiedner, a Coastal Carolina commit who has played his last game in a Pace uniform.

“I’m not one to speak my mind, especially on the internet. But how does a team go 8-2 (both losses to teams that made the playoffs) and not make the playoffs,” he remarked on his personal X (formerly known as Twitter) account. “But the teams that are 5-5 (and) 6-4 end up making it. And their excuse is 'Strength of Schedule.' WILD!! !!”

Wiedner’s point of contention was widely shared within the Patriots community. Several more questions linger regarding the FHSAA’s playoff formula: a variant of MaxPreps’ system of which the exact criteria is unknown. It is unclear how much wins and performance are weighted compared to strength of schedule.

The PNJ reached out to the FHSAA for clarification, but did not receive a response.

'No system is perfect'

Whether in the dark or not, it’s generally understood that a team’s strength of schedule plays a significant role in its playoff resume. And according to the FHSAA’s ratings, of the 19 programs in Region 1-4S, Pace (2.32) had the second-easiest schedule while Creekside (8.66) had the third hardest.

Throughout the season, whether after a sizable win or a blowout loss, many local teams saw their numbers fluctuate in the opposite direction.

Pine Forest suffered a 55-14 defeat in Week 8 at IMG Academy, but saw its rating improve by 0.539 points. A similar occurrence happened last week as Northview saw its numbers leap 0.828 points following a 54-14 loss at undefeated Walton.

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On the other end of the spectrum, the Patriots saw their numbers dip by 1.072 points after a 49-0 in Week 7 at winless Pensacola.

Escambia head coach Mike Bennett says several teams across the state are choosing to pick up games strictly based on strength of schedule.

“It’s a tough deal,” he said. “But you know what, I’ve been 8-2 too and didn’t make it either when they took the top-two teams (in the district) and Washington and Pine Forest beat us. No system is perfect.”

Further complicating matters is that most scheduling is determined up to two years in advance of a season. Between that period, opponents can get better or get worse. And for Pace, six of its 10 opponents won fewer games in 2023 than they did in the 2022 regular season.

With that said, foreshadowing is still possible based on years of dominance or futility. Also possible is avoiding a long and expensive trip just to find a quality opponent.

There are two perennial powers in the Patriots’ backyard that they have not played in some time: Escambia and Pine Forest. Pace last faced the Eagles in 2018 and the Gators in 2019.

But when asked if missing the playoffs will force him to re-evaluate how he creates a schedule, Smith responded “no.”

He added: “It’s just hard to match up. We play two teams from Okaloosa County. And of course, the Santa Rosa County teams are in our district right now. So we definitely play them and always will, but it's just being able to match up dates with the Pensacola schools.”

Patrick Bernadeau is a sports reporter for the Pensacola News Journal. He can be reached at (772) 985-9692, on X at @PatBernadeau or via email at pbernadeau@gannett.com.

This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Football: How scheduling blocked Pace from state playoff berth