HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL: Breaking down the Wichita Falls area playoff picture
Here’s a district-by-district look at who’s in, who’s out and who can clinch with a win this week. The various playoff scenarios are broken down, and we note the current projected bi-district playoff matchups. We used PigskinPrep.com’s postseason projections except in situations where we had to decipher tiebreakers.
DISTRICT 2-5A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Rider 3-0; Abilene Wylie 2-1; Abilene Cooper 2-1; Amarillo Palo Duro 1-2; Plainview 1-2; Lubbock 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Rider
WHO’S OUT: No one (although Lubbock is close)
WIN AND IN: Abilene Wylie, Abilene Cooper
THE SKINNY: Three wins gets you into the playoffs because Palo Duro and Plainview still have to play each other, meaning one will reach three district losses. Because three district victories is enough, Wylie and Cooper (both 2-1) are knocking on the door. Lubbock isn’t out because there is a scenario — however drastic it may be — where Lubbock wins out and gets into a tiebreaker with Cooper at 2-3 and would have the head-to-head advantage. If the three favorites win in Week 10, then Rider will be district champs, Wylie-Cooper will play for second/third in Week 11 and Plainview-Palo Duro will decide the final playoff berth in the season finale.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Rider vs. EP Andress, Abilene Wylie vs. EP Burges, Abilene Cooper vs. EP Chapin, Palo Duro vs. Canutillo.
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DISTRICT 4-4A DIVISION I
RECORDS: Decatur 3-0; Springtown 1-1; Burkburnett 1-1; WFHS 1-2; Mineral Wells 0-2.
WHO’S IN: Decatur
WHO’S OUT: No one
WIN AND IN: Springtown-Burkburnett winner
THE SKINNY: Decatur has wrapped up the district title and top seed by beating Springtown 23-17. With Burkburnett upsetting WFHS, there’s a lot of scenarios for these next two weeks. Two wins will get you in the playoffs so that’s why the Springtown-Burkburnett winner is guaranteed in. Both the Porcupines and Bulldogs control their destiny to take second place by winning out. There’s also plenty of tiebreaker scenarios as Springtown/Burkburnett/WFHS could tie for second at 2-2 and Burkburnett/WFHS/Mineral Wells could tie for third at 1-3. It’s worth noting in that 1-3 tie, Burkburnett is a +15, WFHS is set at 0 and Mineral Wells is a -15. So unless the Rams pull a massive upset over Decatur, they’ll need to max out Burkburnett to have a chance at the playoffs via a coin flip.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Decatur vs. Dumas, Springtown vs. Canyon Randall, Burkburnett vs. Hereford, WFHS vs. Canyon.
DISTRICT 3-4A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Hirschi 2-0; Graham 2-1; Sweetwater 1-1; Greenwood 1-1; Snyder 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Hirschi, Graham
WHO’S OUT: No one
WIN AND IN: Sweetwater, Midland Greenwood
THE SKINNY: Hirschi and Graham are in because they both have two district wins and that’s enough to qualify in a five-team district because Snyder has three losses. Hirschi controls its destiny to be the top seed — it will be heavily favored against Sweetwater and Greenwood. If the Steers beat Greenwood this week, they’re locked into second place.
Sweetwater has a win over Greenwood, and if the Mustangs can knock off Snyder in Week 11, they should be third place. There’s a potential three-way tie for third between Snyder, Sweetwater and Greenwood at 1-3. In that scenario, Greenwood is set at 0, while Sweetwater is +4 and Snyder is -4.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Hirschi vs. Benbrook, Graham vs. Hillsboro, Sweetwater vs. Godley, Midland Greenwood vs. Glen Rose.
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DISTRICT 3-3A DIVISION I
RECORDS: Clyde 3-0; Vernon 2-1; Jim Ned 2-1; Iowa Park 2-1; Breckenridge 0-3; Bowie 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Clyde, Jim Ned, Iowa Park
WHO’S OUT: Breckenridge, almost Bowie
WIN AND IN: Vernon
THE SKINNY: Clyde has clinched at 3-0 and can win district by beating Iowa Park next week. Jim Ned is in because even if the Indians lose out, they’d have a head-to-head advantage over the other teams that could finish 2-3. Iowa Park is also in because it’s beaten the two 0-3 teams that it could tie with (Vernon has not clinched just because of a 2-3 situation with Bowie). Breckenridge can’t make the playoffs because even if it wins out and upsets Clyde, the Buckaroos have lost to every team it could get in a three-way tie with at 2-3. The reason Bowie is still alive at 0-3 is because it has a theoretical chance of maxing out Vernon and getting into a three-way tie at 2-3 with the Lions and Iowa Park for the final two spots. Friday’s Jim Ned-Vernon game will likely decide second place next week unless the Hawks pull an upset and force a three-way tie.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Clyde vs. Peaster, Jim Ned vs. Whitesboro, Vernon vs. Paradise, Iowa Park vs. Brock.
DISTRICT 5-3A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Jacksboro 3-0; Millsap 3-0; Comanche 1-2; Eastland 1-2; Merkel 1-2; Dublin 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Jacksboro, Millsap
WHO’S OUT: None
THE SKINNY: Jacksboro and Millsap are playing Week 10 with the winner claiming the district title. After that, there’s plenty of potential tiebreakers, even a situation where four teams tie for third place at 2-3. Comanche can benefit the most from a Week 10 win of the three teams tied at 1-2, while Dublin will be out if it loses to Eastland. It’s really a three-time race between Merkel, Comanche and Eastland for two spots. Eastland already beat Merkel by three, while Comanche gets both teams in the last two weeks.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Jacksboro vs. Callisburg, Millsap vs. City View, Comanche vs. Henrietta, Eastland vs. Holliday.
DISTRICT 6-3A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Holliday 3-0; Henrietta 2-1; City View 2-1; Callisburg 1-2; Valley View 1-2; S&S Consolidated 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Holliday
WHO’S OUT: No one (S&S Consolidated is close)
WIN AND IN: City View, Henrietta
THE SKINNY: Holliday can claim the district title and top seed by beating City View this week. Henrietta controls its own destiny for second place and has the easiest schedule of the remaining teams. All four playoff spots can be clinched if Callisburg beats Valley View and Henrietta beats S&S (both will be heavy favorites). If City View pulls an upset over Holliday, then there’d be a likely three-way tie at the top with the Eagles, Bearcats and Mustangs. The reason why nobody is eliminated yet is because there’s a longshot scenario of a five-way tie for second place at 2-3.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Holliday vs. Eastland, Henrietta vs. Comanche, City View vs. Millsap, Callisburg vs. Jacksboro.
DISTRICT 4-2A DIVISION I
RECORDS: Hawley 4-0; Stamford 4-0; Cisco 3-1; Anson 3-2; Winters 1-4; Olney 0-4; Colorado City 0-4.
WHO’S IN: Hawley, Stamford, Cisco, Anson
WHO’S OUT: Olney, Winters, Colorado City
THE SKINNY: No playoff bids are up for grabs the final two weeks because the best the bottom three teams can finish is 2-4 and the top four teams all have three wins. But there’s a district title and playoff seeding up for grabs. Hawley-Stamford likely will decide the district title in Week 10, while Cisco-Anson likely decides third place. Having said that, if Cisco wins out (which includes upsetting Hawley in Week 11), it’s possible the Loboes move into second place or there’s a three-way tie for 4-2A title at 5-1.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Hawley vs. Reagan County, Stamford vs. Ozona, Cisco vs. Forsan, Anson vs. Sonora.
DISTRICT 6-2A DIVISION I
RECORDS: Nocona 3-0; Tioga 2-1; Tom Bean 2-1; Alvord 1-2; Trenton 1-2; Whitewright 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Nocona,
WHO’S OUT: No one
WIN AND IN: Tioga-Trenton winner, Alvord
THE SKINNY: This district is more complicated than other districts based on the fact Tom Bean is ineligible for the postseason, finishing up a two-year ban because of recruiting violations. Last year the Tomcats finished in last place so it didn’t matter, but this year Tom Bean already has district wins over Whitewright and Alvord. We’re under the understanding Tom Bean will be removed from any district finish so if it winds up in a three-way tie, that would revert to head-to-head. Nocona can clinch the district title and top seed by beating Tom Bean this week. Even with a loss to Tom Bean, the Indians can finish first by beating Alvord. No one else has clinched yet or is eliminated because there’s a potential three-way tie at 3-2 and three-way tie at 2-3. If Alvord beats Whitewright, all four playoff spots would be clinched because Whitewright can’t get in at 1-4.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Nocona vs. DeLeon, Tioga vs. Hamilton, Alvord vs. Coleman, Trenton vs. Tolar.
DISTRICT 2-2A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Wellington 3-0; Clarendon 3-0; Wheeler 1-2; Shamrock 1-2; Quanah 1-2; Memphis 0-3.
WHO’S IN: Clarendon, Wellington
WHO’S OUT: No one
WIN AND IN: None.
THE SKINNY: Clarendon and Wellington are in and will likely play for the district title in Week 11. There’s a lot to be sorted out for the last two playoff seeds with all four teams still having a chance and the three 1-2 teams — Wheeler, Shamrock and Quanah — controlling their own destiny. Having said that, Wheeler is the only one of the three teams that doesn’t have Wellington or Clarendon on the schedule, giving the Mustangs the inside track on third place. If Quanah can’t upset Wellington this week, then the Indians would need to beat Wheeler by double digits to get on the right side of a three-way tie for the last two spots at 2-3 with Shamrock and Wheeler.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Wellington vs. Boys Ranch, Clarendon vs. Vega, Wheeler vs. Sunray, Shamrock vs. Gruver.
DISTRICT 7-2A DIVISION II
RECORDS: Windthorst 4-0; Seymour 4-0; Haskell 3-2; Petrolia 2-2; Archer City 1-3; Electra 1-3; Munday 0-5.
WHO’S IN: Seymour, Windthorst
WHO’S OUT: Munday
WIN AND IN: Haskell (the Petrolia-Archer City winner is close)
THE SKINNY: Seymour and Windthorst remain undefeated in district and will play for the 7-2A title on Friday. The loser is still almost guaranteed second because both have beaten Haskell. The Indians can clinch third place with a win against Electra because they’ll be done at 4-2. The Petrolia-Archer City matchup should decide fourth place. But it can’t officially go for Petrolia yet because there’s a scenario where the Pirates, Haskell and Electra are tied at 3-3. If the Tigers beat Haskell by 10 or more, Petrolia would be out. Archer City can’t officially clinch because there’s a scenario (albeit a long shot) where the Wildcats lose to Munday and finish 2-4, while Petrolia wins its finale and gets to 3-3. Electra has very slim playoff hopes because it has lost to Archer City and Petrolia, so a three-way tie at 2-4 wouldn’t do them any good. The Tigers have to win out and beat Haskell by 10 or more.
PROJECTED BI-DISTRICT MATCHUPS: Seymour vs. Lindsay, Windthorst vs. Celeste, Haskell vs. Muenster, Archer City vs. Collinsville.
This article originally appeared on Wichita Falls Times Record News: Wichita Falls area high school football playoff scenarios
