How high on Ducks’ career rushing list can Bucky Irving climb after Oregon career?
There was a lot to marvel at for the Oregon Ducks during the 2022 season.
While the biggest storylines were centered around quarterback Bo Nix, the breakout of wide receiver Troy Franklin, and the frustration centered around the defense, one of the players who garnered the most love and adoration from the fan base was running back Bucky Irving.
After transferring to Oregon from Minnesota in 2022, Irving quickly showcased how dynamic of a player he could be in a Ducks’ uniform. It didn’t always show itself on the stat sheet — Irving was unable to crack the 100-yard mark until Week 7 vs. UCLA — but anyone who watched the games knew instantly how electric No. 0 was.
Because of the time-share that Irving had with fellow RB Noah Whittington, the season-long stats aren’t as impressive as many think they could have been. However, there is a hope and a belief among Duck fans that a little bit of leash will be let out going forward, and Iriving will be able to really show what he can do.
Should that happen, how good can he be? Based on pure talent, it’s clear that Irving is among the most talented running backs that the Ducks have had in the past couple of decades, which is not something that should be said lightly. So should he get the runway to do some damage on the ground, where could he end up in the Oregon record books once his career is over?
That’s a question that I wanted to try and find an answer to. Let’s start by looking at his career stats, and going from there.
Bucky Irving Career Stats
Minnesota Golden Gophers
12 Games | 133 rushes, 699 yards (5.3 YPA), 4 TD
Oregon Ducks
13 Games | 156 rushes, 1,058 yards (6.8 YPA), 5 TD
Note: It needs to be said as a reminder that for his place on the Oregon Ducks career rushing list, obviously only the stats that were accomplished at Oregon count. The 699 yards and 4 TD from Minnesota will not count towards Irving’s stats, just as the 884 yards and 9 TD from Travis Dye in 2022 at USC don’t count toward his totals on the Ducks’ all-time list. Dye still sits at No. 5 behind Derek Loville, but he would bump up to No. 4 if we included his year with the Trojans.
Projecting Ahead
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This is where things get a little bit tricky. If we expect Bucky Irving to have a similar role for the remainder of his career, you could just multiply his stats from 2022 by about 26 games (13 per season, assuming he doesn’t leave for the NFL after this season or miss time for injury) and get a pretty good idea for his career-long output.
I think that realistically, his role is going to increase by a little bit at the very least. I think he will also see some positive regression in the touchdown department, if not this year, then definitely next year as the Ducks transition away from Bo Nix, a running QB, in 2024.
So here’s how we’re going to calculate Irving’s future stats. In 2023, I predict that Irving will see a 10% increase from last season. I think he will have an additional 10% increase in production in 2024, so long as he stays. That would look like this:
2023: 13 Games | 171 rushes, 1,163 yards, 7 TD
2024: 13 Games | 188 rushes, 1,274 yards, 8 TD
What That Gives Us
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As you can see, giving Iriving a 10% increase in production doesn’t bring forth drastic results, but it assumes really solid production. Of course, injuries could be a possibility in the real world, but that’s not something I can factor in here. There is also a world where Dan Lanning and Co. let out some leash for Irving, and he sees an increase in production that’s greater than 10% down the road. Again, not something I can predict.
So, assuming that our 10% increase is accurate, and understanding the variabilities that could either drag it down or prop it up over the next couple of years, here are the career stats that I project Irving to end up with after three years with the Ducks:
39 Games | 515 rushes, 3,500 yards, 19 TD
I also wanted to see what Irving’s output would look like if he played for just one more season at Oregon. It calculated out to 327 rushes for 2,226 yards and 11 TD. For reference, that would rank No. 15 on Oregon’s all-time career rushing list, just behind QB Marcus Mariota.
Where would three seasons of stats at Oregon put Irving on that list, though? Here is the top 10, should he roughly follow the 10% increase model.
No. 10 — Sean Burwell (1990-1993)
Scott Olmos-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 2,758
Touchdowns: 25
No. 9 — Terrence Whitehead (2002-2005)
(Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)
Rushing Yards: 2,832
Touchdowns: 26
No. 8 — Jonathan Stewart (2005-2007)
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 2,891
Touchdowns: 31
No. 7 — CJ Verdell (2018-2021)
Rushing Yards: 2,920
Touchdowns: 30
No. 6 — Travis Dye (2018-2021)
Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 3,111
Touchdowns: 29
No. 5 — Derek Loville (1986-1989)
(AP Photo/Rob Schumacher)
Rushing Yards: 3,296
Touchdowns: 45
No. 4 — Bucky Irving
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Projected
Rushing Yards: 3,500
Touchdowns: 19
No. 3 — Kenjon Barner (2009-2012)
Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 3,623
Touchdowns: 48
No. 2 — LaMichael James (2009-2011)
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 5,082
Touchdowns: 57
No. 1 — Royce Freeman (2014-2017)
Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Rushing Yards: 5,621
Touchdowns: 64
