Hey Bucs, let’s do this again in 2024. Starting with the skeptics

TAMPA — They thrived on doubt. Reveled in naysayers.

The Bucs of 2023 were wildly underappreciated when training camp began, and they used that lack of respect as a rallying cry throughout the season.

So, here’s some potentially good news for 2024:

The Bucs are still a little shaky.

Woo hoo!

Oh, the hate will not be as dramatic as this past season. Nobody is going to suggest they are one of the two or three worst teams in the league. Not after they shocked computers, experts and bettors in 2023. But there are some red flags that suggest Tampa Bay will not automatically pick up where it left off Sunday evening in Detroit.

That doesn’t mean the Bucs are going from first to worst in the NFC South. It’s just an acknowledgement that challenges remain and that the upward trajectory we saw in the last two months is not guaranteed to continue.

Consider this:

• A year after dealing with Tom Brady’s retirement, the Bucs have another quarterback issue. This time, it’s free agency. And while it’s true Baker Mayfield would like to stay, it’s going to take a lot more than $4 million, plus incentives. Mayfield is likely to get a multiyear deal at, presumably, more than $25 million a season. That’s not an outrageous amount for a quarterback, but it will eat into Tampa Bay’s currently available salary-cap space.

• Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield Jr., Lavonte David and Chase McLaughlin are among their other free agents. Now, after taking a near-$80 million hit last season, the Bucs are in decent shape with salary-cap space. But those available funds will get eaten up quickly simply by re-signing their own guys. In other words, it’s hard to envision a shopping spree if this core group is kept together.

• They have several large contracts that are not aging well. Chris Godwin has a $27.5 million cap hit for 2024, Shaq Barrett is at $14.1 million and Russell Gage is at $13.3 million. The Bucs could save some 2024 cap space by releasing Barrett, but their outside pass rush is a little thin. Yes, Yaya Diaby had a strong rookie season as an edge rusher. No, Joe Tryon-Shoyinka does not inspire confidence on the other side.

• The Bucs are going to play another first-place schedule. If you don’t think that matters, you’re kidding yourself. Tampa Bay also had a first-place schedule last season and went 0-3 while being outscored 76-43 in those specific games. The year before that, the Bucs were 1-2 against the first-place schedule.

• Let’s face it, Tampa Bay had a lot of good fortune in ‘23. The only major injuries were Ryan Jensen’s lingering knee problem and Gage’s blowout in training camp. The Bucs had 10 players start all 17 games. Only Jacksonville and Cincinnati — with 11 — had more. For comparison’s sake, the Bucs had just five players start all 17 games the year before.

• They are picking No. 26 in the draft.

If that sounds ominous, that’s not the intention. This is still a young team coming off a surprisingly successful season. With one full season under coordinator Dave Canales, the offense should be better. With Diaby, Calijah Kancey and K.J. Britt getting more playing time, the defense could grow.

But it’s dangerous to assume that it’s a given.

The Bucs are attempting to do something that is remarkably difficult. They are revamping that 2020 Super Bowl roster without first taking a huge step backward. They have replaced 12 of the 22 starters, the head coach and the offensive coordinator from that lineup and still have followed up with three consecutive division titles.

There’s a reason the Bucs are the only team in the NFC with four consecutive postseason appearances. It’s because, in this league, success works against you.

The aftermath of too many playoff appearances is salary-cap woes, late draft picks and harder schedules. And, thus far, the Bucs have taken all of those hits and managed to keep winning.

General manager Jason Licht made a wise decision by swallowing a huge pile of dead money in 2023 instead of spreading it out over future seasons, and then his people scouted well enough to keep the Bucs on top of the South despite using 15 rookies in the regular season.

Can they continue that success in 2024 while spending more money at quarterback, keeping Evans, Winfield and David under contract, and hoping that Barrett’s 7½ sacks in his last 26 games is not the beginning of a decline as he gets into his 30s?

It’s possible, but doubtful. And you should probably let the Bucs know that.

They seem to like that kind of skepticism.

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

• • •

Sign up for the Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida.

Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on Instagram, X and Facebook.