Who should Jaguars fans root for to help Jags into playoffs? Broncos-Raiders could be huge

For the second year in a row, the Jacksonville Jaguars' playoff hopes come down to the last week of the regular season. Last year, the Jags beat the Tennessee Titans on Sunday Night Football thanks to a fourth-quarter Josh Allen fumble return for a touchdown to clinch the AFC South in front of a raucous Duval crowd.

This year, the 9-7 Jaguars once again face a win-and-you're-in game against the Titans. This time it's in Nashville, and it's with quarterback Trevor Lawrence's status unclear after he missed last week's game with a sprained shoulder. Also unlike last year, the Jags have more than one route into the NFL playoffs, as they could earn an AFC wild card spot even if they lose.

If the Jags lose Sunday, the winner of Saturday's game between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will win the AFC South and the No. 4 seed in the AFC playoffs. Jacksonville could still claim the No. 7 seed, but that depends on the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders.

Here are the Week 18 games that will decide the Jaguars' fate in the AFC playoff picture:

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens | 4:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN/ABC

The Jaguars will know before Sunday's game whether they have to beat the Titans and win the division to make the playoffs. The Steelers come into the game with a 9-7 record, same as the Jags. If Mike Tomlin's team wins, Jacksonville will have to win as well to keep up. If the Jags win, the Steelers cannot make the playoffs.

A Steelers win may seem unlikely considering they're playing the 13-3 Ravens, who clinched the No. 1 seed in the AFC thanks to two of the most impressive wins of the season: a 33-19 beatdown of the NFC's top-seeded San Francisco 49ers and a 56-19 thrashing of the AFC's current No. 2 seed, the Miami Dolphins (not to mention a 23-7 win at Jacksonville the week before). However, with nothing to play for, coach John Harbaugh said MVP favorite Lamar Jackson will not play to prevent unnecessary injuries before the playoffs. Pittsburgh is facing Baltimore under the best possible conditions for Yinzer Nation.

If the Steelers lose to the Ravens' backups, the Jags have a fallback if they can't beat the Titans on Sunday. Because Jacksonville beat Pittsburgh 20-10 in Week 8, it holds the head-to-head tiebreaker.

However, there's a caveat. We'll get back to that.

Who should Jaguars fans root for? Lamar Jackson to start Tyler Huntley and the Ravens to win

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts | 8:15 p.m. Saturday, ESPN/ABC

This is mostly for academic purposes. The Texans and Colts are tied with the Jaguars at 9-7, and because Jacksonville is currently 4-1 against AFC South teams while the others are 3-2, a Jags win Sunday will clinch the division title regardless of who wins this game Saturday. The winner of Texans-Colts will hope the Titans pull off the upset so they will claim the South's automatic berth.

So this game doesn't matter to Jaguars fans ... as long as there's a winner. Because if Houston's star rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and Indianapolis' journeyman QB Gardner Minshew play to a draw, they would both have better records than the Jags if they were to lose Sunday. A Saturday night tie opens the possibility that both the Texans and Colts make the playoffs and leave the Jaguars on the curb.

Who should Jaguars fans root for? Someone, anyone to win.

Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox

This one may seem confusing since both teams are already eliminated from playoff contention. But if the Jaguars and Steelers lose, this becomes the most important game of the weekend thanks to the NFL's tiebreaker system.

The 8-8 Broncos controversially benched quarterback Russell Wilson before they were out of the playoff race last week. Now led by Jarrett Stidham, Denver closes its season in the late afternoon slate at the 7-9 Raiders. The Broncos won last week, and if they do it again in the finale and finish 9-8, that could be the final nail in the Jaguars' coffin.

Remember that head-to-head tiebreaker the Jags hold over the Steelers? If the Broncos join them at 9-8, that advantage becomes null and void because it would activate the NFL's tiebreaker scenario for more than two teams. In this scenario, the Steelers would get the AFC's final playoff spot because of their strength of victory, or the record of the teams they've beaten.

If the Raiders beat or tie the Broncos, the only tiebreaker that matters is the Jaguars-Steelers head-to-head.

Who should Jaguars fans root for? Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders to win or tie.

How can Jaguars clinch a playoff spot?

Here are all the different paths where the Jaguars can clinch a playoff spot

• Jaguars win vs. Titans

• Jaguars tie + Steelers loss/tie vs. Ravens

• Jaguars loss + Steelers loss + Broncos loss/tie vs. Raiders + Texans vs. Colts does not end in tie

What are the Jaguars' playoff chances?

According to the New York Times' model, the Jaguars have a 77% chance to make the playoffs and a 60% chance to win the AFC South. The Athletic gives the Jaguars a 67.9% chance to make the playoffs.

How to watch Jaguars vs. Titans

• Time: 1 p.m.

• Date: Sunday, January 7

• TV: CBS

• Streaming: Paramount+ (7-day free trial), NFL+ (out-of-market only), fuboTV (7-day free trial), YouTube TV (2-week free trial), Hulu + Live TV (7-day free trial)

Jaguars-Titans will kick off at 1 p.m. Sunday, January 7 at Nissan Stadium in Nashville, Tennessee.

The game will air on CBS. Streaming options include fuboTV, which offers a free trial to potential subscribers.

Jaguars-Titans odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Tuesday, January 2.

• Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)

• Over/under: 40 points

• Moneyline: Jaguars -225, Titans +185

Jaguars schedule 2023

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Jaguars playoff scenarios: Who should Jags fans root for in Week 18?