Here's how much Patriots' odds of top draft pick decreased in Week 14 win
Here's how much Patriots' odds of top draft pick decreased in Week 14 win originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
It's never fun to lose, and give the New England Patriots players credit: They brought great energy and focus to Thursday night's Week 14 road game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Their effort was rewarded with a 21-18 upset win, which snapped the team's five-game losing streak and improved its record to 3-10.
While it was fun for a lot of fans to see the Patriots win, you could argue the outcome was actually the opposite of what the franchise needed. That's because the victory decreased New England's chances of earning a top two or top three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Patriots went into Thursday's matchup with a 60 percent chance of getting a top-two pick, per ESPN Analytics. Those odds have dropped to 39 percent after beating the Steelers. New England's chances of landing a top-three pick are a bit better at 59 percent.
Here's a full breakdown of the updated odds, per ESPN's Seth Walder:
Chance to earn a top-3 pick, according to ESPN Analytics
Bears via Panthers 97%
Patriots 59%
Cardinals 52%
Commanders 32%
Giants 32%
Bears 10%
Titans 8%
Jets 7%
Raiders 2%— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) December 8, 2023
The Patriots currently are tied with the Cardinals for the second-worst record in the league at 3-10, but New England has the tiebreaker due to a weaker strength of schedule. Therefore, the Patriots own the No. 2 pick and the Cardinals are at No. 3 entering Sunday's Week 14 matchups.
The Patriots will be guaranteed a top-three pick in the 2024 draft if they don't win another game. But if the Patriots earn a fourth win, they could potentially drop as far as No. 7 or No. 8 depending on how the final standings and tiebreakers shake out.
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Dropping even a couple spots could be a disastrous scenario for the Patriots, who are desperate for an infusion of high-end talent, especially at quarterback.
The Patriots are still in a strong position to earn a top-three pick, but the margin for error, as noted in the percentages listed above, is pretty slim.
