Heat offseason primer: Kyle Lowry trade opportunities, new CBA challenges, and more
The Miami Heat just had one of the most improbable and memorable playoff runs in NBA history. The eight-seeded team went from being on the brink of elimination in the Play-In Tournament all the way to the NBA Finals. Their quick disposal of the title favorite Milwaukee Bucks is a highlight of their run. Unfortunately for the Heat, their disciplined defense and physicality couldn’t contain the ultra-efficient Denver Nuggets offense. Overall, it was another reminder of head coach Erik Spoelstra’s place as one of the best in the league and Jimmy Butler as a Top 10 player.
The front office will need to fortify the rest of the roster around Butler, and Bam Adebayo if they’re going to make a deep playoff run again. Improving the roster around their duo will be challenging given their high payroll and the new CBA changes will only make it more difficult. Any improvement could be incremental with their lack of flexibility or significant trade assets.
Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Miami Heat.
State of the roster and how the new CBA affects them
Miami’s biggest problem this year was their offense. More specifically, their complete lack of it during the regular season. The Heat ranked 25th in offensive rating in 2022-23, which was the lowest among playoff teams. With the exception of Jimmy Butler, every Heat rotation player from 2021-22 who returned had a shooting regression. They completely flipped the switch in the playoffs and the Heat’s offense will probably regress back up to the mean in the regular season.
Some of the new CBA changes will make upgrading their offense tougher for them. The Heat are going into the summer with 10 players rostered, including their first-round pick, and are roughly $14 million over the luxury tax line. The team has managed to stay under the tax these past three seasons but those days may be over. The jump in expenses is largely thanks to the recently signed extension for Butler and Tyler Herro set to kick in.
The biggest issue for the Heat this summer is that they are right at the newly implemented second tax apron without doing anything. Operating over the threshold would limit them this season to taking back 110 percent of salaries they send out in trades bars them from signing veterans in the buyout market, and eliminates access to the mid-level exception. Teams over the second tax apron would be subjected to even more restrictions starting in 2024-25.
The Heat are in this position because they have $58 million in ineffective-to-dead money. Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson, and Victor Oladipo ($9.5 million player option) occupy a significant chunk of Miami’s payroll and have not lived up to the value of their contracts. If they are going to make any changes or at least generate flexibility for other moves, they will need to reduce payroll, ideally in the form of moving off those players.
Lowry and Oladipo’s value is neutral at best since they’re now expiring contracts. The Heat could look to package their salaries with multiple first-round picks and prospects to acquire upgrades. They are limited to moving their 2023 and 2028 first-round picks next season. The remaining three years, $57.4 million on Robinson’s contract could keep him in Miami for the time being.
Assuming the Heat’s payroll remains deep in the tax and over the second tax apron team, that would restrict them from increasing payroll starting in 2023-24 other than re-signing free agents, signing draft picks, and minimum players. These new rules increase the value of Bird rights for second tax apron teams, which could lead to the return of several of Miami’s free agents.
Free agent: Max Strus
Max Strus was one of the breakout players of this Heat playoff run. He along with Gabe Vincent were highly productive on minimum salaries these past two seasons and are another example of the Heat’s continued success at identifying talent on the margins. Strus’ overall versatility on both ends could make him a very appealing option for any team and offers for him could start at the $12.2 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception.
Free agent: Gabe Vincent
Gabe Vincent is the other key emerging contributor from this playoff run. He stands to get rewarded with a lucrative deal in free agency with offers also likely to start at the mid-level exception range. Both he and Strus have full Bird rights, so Miami won’t have any limitations toward re-signing them. It will be interesting to see if they’re willing to pay them or let them go and bet on identifying their replacements on the free agent pool.
Free agent: Kevin Love
Kevin Love was signed after he agreed to a buyout with the Cavaliers and was immediately inserted into the Heat’s starting lineup. He will have Non Bird rights which limit the Heat to re-signing him to either 120 percent of his previous salary or the minimum. Because they signed him to a $3.1 million salary with the remainder of their Bi-Annual exception, they can re-sign him to $3.7 million with his Non Bird rights. That is roughly $500,000 more than his projected minimum salary which is an advantage, especially if the Heat don’t have their mid-level exception this season.
Trade market
Miami has always been aggressive on the trade front and that should continue as they look to make a leap. They will naturally be exploring what a combination of expiring contracts and draft equity can get them. They can trade up to three first-round picks this summer: the 18th overall selection in the 2023 Draft, and their 2028 and 2030 first-round picks.
They will always be on the lookout for the next available All-Star, such as Damian Lillard who has expressed interest in Miami. This offseason may be their last chance to make such a swing since it will be the last time teams over the first tax apron can make imbalanced trades. Unfortunately, they may have far from the best offer for such a player even if Herro is on the table. They may be limited to significant sub-All-Star upgrades via trades this summer.
The Lakers trade of Russell Westbrook along with a first-round pick for D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley could be the blueprint of a Lowry trade. Meaning, the Heat could package him with draft picks in exchange for multiple role players on smaller salaries. It might not be the most exciting trade scenario but they need to replenish their depth this offseason and trade will be their best path to do so.
The Heat’s ability to find young talent from the player pool could strangely work to their advantage. The value of first-round picks have risen thanks to the restrictions of the second apron. This could make some teams abstain from trading multiple unprotected first-round picks for All-Stars, which has been a trend recently. If this cools the market for All-Stars, this could put the Heat in a position to have a competitive offer. And with their ability to find talent without first-round picks, they could conceivably deepen their roster with minimum signings as a second tax apron team.
2023-24 SALARY SITUATION
Players rostered: 10
Guaranteed salaries: $174.7 million
Non-guaranteed salaries: $1.9 million
Total salary: $176.6 million
Luxury tax space: $14.6 million above the tax
Apron space: $10.1 million above the apron
Second apron space: $413,953
Spending power:
Dewayne Dedmon trade exception: $4,700,000 (expires February 9, 2024)
Jimmy Butler
2023-24 salary: $45,183,960
Remaining salary guaranteed: $146,396,031 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $52.4 million.
Bam Adebayo
2023-24 salary: $32,600,060
Remaining salary guaranteed: $104,545,020 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible during 2023 offseason for up to two years, projected at $81 million.
Kyle Lowry
2023-24 salary: $29,682,540
Remaining salary guaranteed: $29,682,540
Additional notes:
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24.
Tyler Herro
2023-24 salary: $27,000,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $120,000,000 through 2026-27
Additional notes:
$2.5 million in annual unlikely incentives.
Duncan Robinson
2023-24 salary: $18,154,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $47,448,000 through 2025-26
Additional notes:
2025-26 salary is a player option worth $19.9 million and is partially guaranteed for $9.9 million.
Victor Oladipo
2023-24 salary: $9,450,000 (player option)
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,450,000
Caleb Martin
2023-24 salary: $6,802,950
Remaining salary guaranteed: $13,929,850 through 2024-25
Additional notes:
2024-25 salary is a player option worth $7.2 million.
15 percent trade bonus currently worth $1 million.
Nikola Jovic
2023-24 salary: $2,352,000
Remaining salary guaranteed: $9,261,617 through 2025-26
Haywood Highsmith
2023-24 salary: $1,902,137
Remaining salary guaranteed: $0
Additional notes:
2023-24 salary is non-guaranteed. Fully guaranteed if not waived by July 15.
Kevin Love
Cap hold: $3,741,766
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Omer Yurtseven
Cap hold: $2,261,264
Type of free agent: Bird (restricted)
Udonis Haslem
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Max Strus
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Gabe Vincent
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Bird (unrestricted)
Cody Zeller
Cap hold: $1,989,698
Type of free agent: Non Bird (unrestricted)
Jamal Cain
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
Orlando Robinson
Cap hold: $1,774,999
Type of free agent: Non Bird (restricted)
2023 Pick No. 18
2023-24 salary: $3,458,400
Remaining salary guaranteed: $16,744,457 through 2026-27
Additional notes: HoopsHype and ForTheWin’s draft expert Bryan Kalbrosky has Dariq Whitehead being selected with the 18th overall selection in his most recent mock draft.
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