Hall of Fame chances for 12 current or recent Cowboys
It’s summertime, or close enough to it that news, real actual news, surrounding the Dallas Cowboys should be few and far between. With over a month remaining before the team reports to Oxnard, CA for 2023 training camp, there hopefully won’t be much activity across the ESPN scroll centered around the club. Between June and July, most things that have a real impact are of the negative variety, so here’s hoping none of that transpires this offseason.
On a lighter note, this article will circle back on and update an article written way back in 2017, looking at the Hall of Fame chances of recent and former Cowboys. These aren’t based on Vegas odds or anything, just one man’s personal opinion. The rehash and update serves two purposes.
One, it’s a stark reminder to how much can change in the blink of an eye. A common interpretation of NFL is Not For Long, and it’s wild to see how much has changed for many of the players included in the exercise just six seasons ago.
Two, we aren’t deterred. There’s six seasons worth of new evidence for some, and a brand new crop of stars to add to the mix. So here’s a look at the whole picture.
LB DeMarcus Ware | 2017: 94% | 2023: 100%
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Ware had just retired when this exercise was first run, and honestly it is maddening he wasn’t a first-ballot HOF guy that was inducted last year. Still, he’ll get his jacket in August and none are more deserving.
TE Jason WItten | 2017: 82% | 2023: 61%
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports
Witten had an additional Pro Bowl season after the article first ran, retired, then came back for two more seasons. I can’t be the only one who thinks his return tarnished his legacy just a bit. Of course he wasn’t the same player he was earlier in his career, but his return seemed to have taken away from his mythology somewhat. He still deserves to go, but is he going very early in his eligibility window? We’ll see starting in 2025.
QB Tony Romo | 2017: 9% | 2023: 0.9%
With permission from Corona
OK, the running gag is clear now; in 2017 we were using jersey numbers but they certainly felt accurate at the time. Romo isn’t going to get in as a player until maybe a senior committee. His overall impact to the game could be his in, but the last couple years as a broadcaster haven’t been as fulfilling as his first few.
WR Dez Bryant | 2017: 65% | 2023: 6.5%
(Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Bryant is criminally underrated, even among Cowboys fans. The attention opposing defenses paid him was a clear indicator of just how tough he was to stop as a catch-point savant. But look at what was written in 2017:
It’s the injuries that will determine Bryant’s career, because when he plays, he’s a monster.
It’s hardly a stretch to see Bryant getting at least another 40 career touchdowns if he plays for another 5 years in the league. If that comes with 5,000 more receiving yards, moving him past 11,000 in his career, the Hall should call.
Bryant only played in 22 more games; 16 in 2017 and then another six in 2020.
RB Ezekiel Elliott | 2017: 50% | 2023: 2.1%
Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
A very good argument could be made that if the Cowboys had actually won something during the last seven seasons, Elliott’s career compares quite well with that of Denver Broncos’ star Terrell Davis. But the hardware and postseason stats are missing, and based on the last several seasons, it’s now a totally different picture than what was predicted back in 2017.
QB Dak Prescott | 2017: 40% | 2023: 30%
(Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Prescott’s prospects will climb considerably once he proves his rookie season isn’t a fluke. Although he showed maturity beyond his years as a rookie that betrays any sentiment he’ll suffer a sophomore slump, it still remains a possibility. Building on a 3,600 yard, 20 TD, 4 INT season though will cement him as one of the best draft finds in recent NFL history. However, stats alone won’t get Prescott to the Hall. He’ll need postseason success to earn the honor, and that isn’t completely up to the quarterback. If he leads Dallas to a championship or two, or three or four, and his ticket will be punched.
2023 is looking like Dallas has a real chance to give Prescott the first stepping stone.
LT Tyron Smith | 2017: 70% | 2023: 75%
Jason Parkhurst-USA TODAY Sports
Smith is already well established as one of the Top 3 tackles in the game today. Even when he suffers through a season full of injuries, he’s able to earn the respect of his peers as the best left tackle playing. In a sport where linemen can play deep into their 30s, the seventh-year pro still won’t be 27 at the start of this season. It’s likely he has another 8-10 years of playing in the league to add onto his four Pro Bowls and two first-team All-Pro honors.
Sigh. 2016 was the first year Smith’s injuries showed up, so when we wrote this it was still a ton of amazement. Since, he’s never suited up for more than 13 games, which at this point would feel like a miracle. Still, he’s made four Pro Bowls since the 2017 article ran; he’s been THAT good. He’s in, at some point, even if it’s the long wait.
C Travis Frederick | 2017: 55% | 2023: 1%
(AP Photo/Ron Jenkins)
Ugh. Frederick played two more campaigns after the 2017 article and both were Pro Bowl seasons. They were sandwiched around his devasting health scare and he clearly wasn’t the same player on the backend and retired after 2019. Six seasons, five Pro Bowls, and a place in the heart of every Cowboys fan from the era.
RG Zack Martin | 2017: 40% | 2023: 100%
(AP Photo/Rich Schultz)
Cowboys fans are so lucky to have been able to cheer for Martin over his career it may not register to them, but look at the career arcs of his linemates Smith and Frederick. Fortunate, indeed. Since the original article after just his third season, he’s proven his worth with another five Pro Bowl nods and an additioanl four All-Pro credits. He’s the best at what he does and has been over a long stretch of time. No-brainer Hall of Famer.
CB Trevon Diggs | 2023: 10%
Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Diggs career is off to a tremendous start with 17 interceptions in his first three seasons. Adding Stephon Gilmore opposite him will likely increase his play level for 2023, but it’s still such a tall hill to climb for CBs to make the Hall. Mix in the shift to heavy passing in the league in today’s game and it’s a really tough to project the lengthy career necessary to earn a Hall nod.
LB/Edge Micah Parsons | 2023: 40%
(Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Whatever maximum percentage one wants to put on a Year 3 player for their chances, assign that to Parsons. For me, it’s 40% based on the percentage I gave Martin six years ago. He has a chance to go down as the best defensive player the league has seen in a couple decades, and that includes Aaron Donald and Darrell Revis. He’s that good.
WR CeeDee Lamb | 2023: 5%
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
There are 25 wideouts who have played a game in the league since the start of the 1970 season and are in the Hall of Fame. That’s the context of what Lamb will have to accomplish to make it. So while in a vacuum his stats indicate he has a very strong chance, remember the number of players in this era putting up similar numbers. Lamb is a top-10 receiver, but Hall players have stretches where they were considered the apex of the position.
Perhaps he gets there in the next few seasons and we revisit this prediction.
Summary
Here’s a ranking of the 12 players mentioned, in descending order:
LB DeMarcus Ware | 100%
RG Zack Martin | 100%
LT Tyron Smith | 75%
TE Jason WItten | 61%
LB/Edge Micah Parsons | 40%
QB Dak Prescott | 30%
CB Trevon Diggs | 10%
WR Dez Bryant | 6.5%
WR CeeDee Lamb | 5%
RB Ezekiel Elliott | 2.1%
C Travis Frederick | 1%
QB Tony Romo | 0.9%
