H.S. Football Playoff Picture: Orrville, Smithville, Loudonville on the bubble in Week 10
One more week.
That's all that remains of the high school football regular season. While the playoff picture for the area's 14 teams is mostly clear, there are several scenarios that could change what the postseason looks like.
Here's a look at the playoff picture, with all projection data via Drew Pasteur:
Who's in?
Dalton (7-1, Div. VII, Region 25, No. 1)
The Bulldogs entered the year with state title ambitions and enter Week 10 with all of those hopes intact. It's possible they get bumped from the top seed in the region, even with a win over Chippewa this week, but that won't matter, and may actually be advantageous for matchups down the road. Dalton has already clinched two potential home playoff games before the bracket switches to neutral sites in the regional semifinals. The 'Dawgs look like the favorite to win their first regional title in program history.
Game of the Year: Dalton beats Norwayne in thrilling de facto WCAL title game
Norwayne (8-1, Div. V, Region 17, No. 3)
The Game of the Year against Dalton didn't go Norwayne's way, but the Bobcats have nothing to worry about heading into Week 10. Two potential home playoff games likely await no matter what happens in this week's game against Smithville. The top of the region is loaded with No. 1 Perry (handed Kirtland its first regular-season loss since 2016) and No. 2 South Range (defending state champion), so whatever advantages Norwayne can get in the earlier rounds, the better.
West Holmes (7-2, Div. IV, Region 14, No. 3)
West Holmes has nothing to worry about entering this week, with a top-four seed wrapped up no matter what happens against Mount Vernon. Barring a huge upset somewhere, the Knights appear headed for the No. 4 spot in a region where Perkins and Glenville will enter the playoffs as the overwhelming favorites to be the bracket's finalists.
Hillsdale (7-2, Div. VII, Region 25, No. 10)
While Hillsdale clinched its playoff spot weeks ago, there are still major ramifications on the line this week. The Falcons need a win against a six-win Rittman team, who is also playing for playoff posturing, to have a shot at a home playoff opener (67% chance via Pasteur). A loss makes a path to playoff success much more perilous.
Rittman (6-3, Div. VI, Region 21, No. 10): Clinching a playoff berth last week was a major step for a Rittman program that is having its best season in years. This should be just the beginning for Rittman too, with most of its top players having at least one more year of high school football left to play. But there is plenty to play for in the present against Hillsdale in Week 10 too. A win would very likely give Rittman a home playoff game, and a much more favorable first-round matchup.
Triway (4-5, Div. V, Region 17, No. 14): There's a small chance (2%) Triway could get bumped from the playoffs with a loss and multiple other breaks going the wrong way. But last week's win over Northwest was a huge one for a Triway team that hasn't otherwise beaten a team with a winning record. A win over Orrville this week would give the Titans a much more favorable first-round matchup with Region 17 loaded at the top.
Who's on the bubble?
Orrville (4-5, Div. V, Region 17, No. 16)
It's pretty simple for Orrville — win and it's in the playoffs, lose and it's likely out (12% chance at making it). One of the most evenly-matched Orrville-Triway matchups in recent years will have a lot riding on it. With a win, the Red Riders would very likely be headed to Creston to face Norwayne in the first round of the playoffs.
Smithville (5-4, Div. V, Region 17, No. 17)
It's going to be very tough for Smithville to sneak into the playoffs. Their best path includes a win over Norwayne this Friday, which would be the biggest upset in the Wayne County Athletic League in a long time. With a loss, the Smithies are looking at a 10% chance at a berth.
Loudonville (3-6, Div. VI, Region 23, No. 19)
It's a win-and-in game for the Redbirds this week. The only problem? They face a Northmor team that has dominated the Knox Morrow Athletic Conference outside of a loss to undefeated Danville. If Loudonville can pull off its biggest win of the year by far, it'll be playing further into October.
Who's out?
Wooster (2-7, Div. II, Region 7, No. 23), Waynedale (2-7, Div. VI, Region 21, No. 19), Tuslaw (2-7, Div. VI, Region 21, No. 25), Northwestern (1-8, Div. VI, Region 22, No. 24), Chippewa (1-8, Div. VI, Region 21, No. 28)
These teams won't be playing past Week 10, but that doesn't mean they have nothing to play for during the final week of the season. Only seven teams in the entire state finish their season with a win in the playoffs. These five have a chance to end on a positive note and start building something bigger in the future.
This article originally appeared on The Daily Record: Football: the Wayne/Holmes area playoff picture heading into Week 10
