Glass is still half full for the Rays, but that sucker is leaking fast

ST. PETERSBURG — A well-adjusted person would say to relax, take a deep breath, look at the big picture.

After all, it’s mid-July and the Rays are technically tied for first place! Their 60-39 record is the second best in franchise history through 99 games! They have a team of playful and audacious young stars!

Or, if you’re a hardcore baseball fan, you can go this route:

#%@&!

Do not try to talk sense to a Rays fan today. It won’t work, and it won’t be appreciated. And, the way things are spiraling out of control, yesterday’s common sense may end up being tomorrow’s nonsense.

That’s how bad it looks with the Orioles hitting town on Thursday for a first-place showdown in the American League East. Even if you’re a glass half full person, you’ve got to admit Tampa Bay’s glass is cracked, chipped and leaking like a sieve.

The Rays are 31-32 across two months of baseball, and that’s not even the bad news. They are 3-11 since July 1 and have completely blown a 6.5-game lead on Baltimore. And that was with a four-day respite for the All-Star break in the middle.

Should you be worried? Heck, yes. Should you be panicked? If you are so inclined.

The bats have gone completely cold, and the starting rotation is a twisted ankle away from disaster. Everything you thought you knew about this team in May now seems dubious in July. It’s hard to know which version of this lineup is closer to the truth.

For as much as we celebrated the more patient/strategic approach at the plate early in the season, these guys are starting to look like the lifeless offense that flailed through last September and October. Wednesday’s 5-1 loss to Texas was the fourth time in the last two weeks that the offense was limited to a solo homer.

Their percentage of walks has dropped and their strikeouts have risen in July. They’re hitting .210 overall, and .104 with runners in scoring position in their last nine losses.

So is there reason for optimism among all this gloom?

Yes, kinda. Sorta. Maybe.

Remember when the Rays were the toast of baseball in the season’s first month? Remember how they were hitting gobs of homers and scoring loads of runs? We said at the time that it couldn’t possibly last, and there was bound to be a regression. Well, the same theory holds true today. As bad as the Rays have looked at the plate in recent weeks, it is not likely to last. Reality resides somewhere in between April and July.

The other reason for hope is the Aug. 1 trade deadline. While the Rays have had some big hauls at the deadline in the past (getting Scott Kazmir from the Mets, Ben Zobrist from the Astros, Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows from the Pirates), it has usually been when they were out of contention and looking for prospects. Their track record acquiring hitters for the stretch run (Nelson Cruz and David Peralta) is much less impressive.

There is enough depth in the farm system that the Rays should be able to get any player — did someone mention Shohei Ohtani? — they want. The question is what they are willing to give up and, in the case of the offense, who they are willing to bench.

The important thing to remember is that as bad as they’ve looked in recent weeks, this type of slump is not completely out of the ordinary. In 2021, the Rays fell out of first place in late June and trailed the Red Sox by 2.5 games as late as July 28. They ended up winning the division by eight games with a 100-62 record.

So if you wake up Thursday morning feeling nervous, agitated or frustrated, take a moment to consider this:

If, on opening day, someone told you the Rays would be percentage points behind Baltimore for first place on July 20 with a four-game series at Tropicana Field against the Orioles coming up, would you take it?

Of course, you would.

These are the moments that sustain us. These are the games we dream about. This is why a 162-game season is the greatest test of any team sport.

So enjoy it. Revel in it. Come Monday, the Rays could be four games ahead of the Orioles or four games behind, or anywhere in between.

#%@&!

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

• • •

Sign up for the Sports Today newsletter to get daily updates on the Bucs, Rays, Lightning and college football across Florida.

Never miss out on the latest with your favorite Tampa Bay sports teams. Follow our coverage on Twitter and Facebook.