GIRLS BASKETBALL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS: Foreseeing four local teams making the regional tournament
The girls high school basketball playoffs have arrived.
So it’s time for my annual look at the regions relevant to the TRN Sports coverage area. I’ve been doing this for nine years now, consistently hitting between 70 and 85 percent of the predictions. Last season, I hit on 67 percent but haven't always included the Class A regions in my projections.
I don’t just look at the state rankings and pick the highest-ranked teams, but obviously I haven’t seen most of these teams play. I speak to multiple coaches about the brackets and matchups. At times, I even go against their advice.
More: HIGH SCHOOL BASKETBALL: Wichita Falls area playoff schedule
I knew a few weeks ago that I would be projecting three local teams to advance to regional tournaments. I surprised myself by selecting four.
While there isn’t a local team playing in the Region I-5A Tournament, I still project it since it’s played at Kay Yeager Coliseum.
All regional tournaments are scheduled for March 2-3 at the respective sites listed with each capsule.
REGION I-5A
Tournament Site – Kay Yeager Coliseum
Final Four – Lubbock Monterey vs. Mansfield Timberview; Amarillo Tascosa vs. Colleyville Heritage
Since Wichita Falls ISD started hosting the Region I-5A Tournaments, the fields have been phenomenal. And the expectation here is a mirror image of the last couple years.
This is the third season the tournament is at the KYC, and Monterey and Timberview have been at the previous two versions. However, neither has won the region.
Timberview enters the postseason the No. 1 team in the state, according to TABC. The Lady Wolves have an experienced team led by the senior trio of Crishawn Coleman, Emilee Jones (a Drexel pledge) and Lamar signee Kamryn Wilson.
Timberview has to get through No. 9 Denton Ryan to get to Wichita Falls but betting against the Lady Wolves seems unwise.
Third-ranked Monterey, led by 2025 national top prospect Aaliyah Chavez, is also favored to make a third-straight appearance, assuming the Lady Plainsmen get past No. 6 Amarillo High in the third round.
Tascosa is the second seed coming out of District 3-5A, and Heritage is seeded third in 7-5A. Heritage is the wild card pick here. Argyle is probably the favorite in that portion of the bracket, but Heritage owns a win over its district foe. Heritage also qualified for the tournament last season.
REGION I-4A
Tournament Site – Rip Griffin Center, Lubbock
Final Four – Canyon vs. Decatur; Canyon Randall vs. Glen Rose
Local teams – Burkburnett, WFHS
As always, it’s not a Region I-4A Tournament without Canyon, but the same can now be said about Glen Rose.
Former Rider coach Ramsey Ghazal has built one of the state’s best programs in Glen Rose, which came up just short of a state title last season. The Tigers are ranked No. 1 in Class 4A again and does have a challenging path to region, but I trust Ghazal to get his girls through.
This isn’t a dominant Canyon team but don’t pick against the Lombards before region.
It’s likely Canyon ISD gets a second team to region with Randall and West Plains lining up to play in the third round. El Paso Riverside has only lost one game, but it’s so hard to know how good El Paso teams are unless they come east.
Decatur has the clearest path to the regional tournament. A young Burkburnett team could play its way into the Lady Eagles’ path, but Decatur owns a win against Canyon. That’s enough to give Decatur a significant edge.
REGION I-3A
Tournament Site – Frenship High School, Wolfforth
Final Four – Abernathy vs. City View; Idalou vs. Jim Ned
Local teams – City View, Holliday, Vernon, Iowa Park
Brock is the favorite in City View’s portion of the Region I-3A bracket but keep in mind the Lady Mustangs defeated Brock in bi-district last season. And the Lady Mustangs return practically everyone from that team.
Brock deserves credit for being back on top of its district, but the Lady Eagles lost a lot of talent through graduation and transfers. The district wasn’t as elite because Peaster fell off hard.
City View is playing good basketball and can make its first ever regional tournament appearance as long as the team chemistry remains strong.
Picking the Lady Mustangs’ opponent was the toughest part of this process. Littlefield, Abernathy and Shallowater are the best candidates, but all three look very even on paper. I eliminated Littlefield because Abernathy and Shallowater played in a tougher district. Abernathy gets the nod for its recent play.
Idalou and Jim Ned are the top two teams in the region. The results back this up. Holliday tries to challenge No. 2 Jim Ned in the second round. That’s a massive hurdle for the Lady Eagles to get past.
REGION II-2A
Tournament Site – McKinney North High School, McKinney
Final Four – Lipan vs. Alba-Golden; Nocona vs. Honey Grove
Local teams – Nocona, Windthorst, Seymour, Petrolia
There’s a significant third-round matchup with No. 14 Cisco looming in the third round, but it’s not hard to predict sixth-ranked Nocona to be back in the Region II-2A Tournament.
But it’s Lipan that will be favored to win the region again. The perennial state title contenders are ranked first by the TABC. Nocona and Windthorst scared Lipan last season. Windthorst lines up for a rematch in the third round.
Muenster is the most likely opponent for Nocona in the regional semifinals, which would be a rematch from last year’s semifinal that Nocona won 35-29. But Muenster isn’t as strong as a year ago, leaving the door open for a team like Honey Grove, which won District 14-2A.
This is another situation where I’m going against the grain.
Alba-Golden is the District 15-2A champion and arguably the favorite for that portion of the bracket, but other contenders there, including District 16-2A champion Simms Bowie that went from worst to first for its district in a year.
REGION II-A
Tournament Site – The Coliseum, Snyder
Final Four – Irion County vs. Harrold; Robert Lee vs. Eula
Local teams – Harrold, Electra, Crowell, Knox City, Northside
More history for the Harrold girls athlete program projected here.
The Lady Hornets look like the best team on paper in its portion of the bracket with District 15-A champion Roby representing the biggest challenge. It’s a sign of what’s to come in Harrold with only one senior on the team.
Defending Region II-A champion Irion County and Menard likely battle to be Harrold’s semifinal opponent. Irion County gets the edge for more success against higher-classification teams.
Robert Lee finished second behind Irion County in District 11-A and has its own impressive résumé. The Lady Steers have beaten several of the teams in that quadrant, including possible second-round opponent 10-A champion Rankin
No. 6 Eula, the District 13-A champion, is the favorite to win the region, although 14-A champ Hermleigh is there and beat Eula in the third round a year ago.
REGION III-A
Tournament Site – Mansfield High School, Mansfield
Final Four – Gorman vs. Dodd City; Richland Springs vs. Newcastle
Local teams – Newcastle, Throckmorton, Forestburg, Bellevue
Newcastle is the second-ranked team in the state, but this region is loaded with quality opponents.
The biggest threat to the Lady Cats winning the region may be Richland Springs, which could be ranked too low at No. 7. Richland Springs does not have a bad loss on its record and played a very difficult schedule filled with Class 3A opponents.
Gorman is the only team to have beaten Newcastle, winning 44-40 in November. It was the second game of the season for both teams.
No. 19 Dodd City gets the nod over Throckmorton, although the Lady Hounds are ranked higher at 14. Dodd City is always a regional contender, and again, plays a very trying regular season schedule.
Forestburg deserves mention for having one of the best seasons in program history but draws Dodd City in the second round. Not to mention, the Lady Horns first have to get past Graford in the first round.
This article originally appeared on Wichita Falls Times Record News: Wichita Falls area high school girls basketball playoff predictions
