Getting Defensive: Week 11
When fantasy managers think about great defenses, they no doubt gravitate toward dominant all-around performances like the one the San Francisco 49ers put forth last week. And it was a dominant performance to be sure—the Niners gave up just 221 yards of total offense, sacked Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence five times, forced four turnovers and allowed just three points.
But in fantasy football, big plays like sacks and turnovers often matter even more than yards and points allowed. And while the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Ravens played a back and forth affair last week that featured 64 points and almost 700 yards of offense, it also featured big plays galore.
Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton returned a Deshaun Watson interception for a touchdown on the game’s first series. Cleveland Browns cornerback Greg Newsome returned the favor in the fourth quarter. There were four takeaways and seven combined sacks. And the two teams both finished the week ranked among the top-five fantasy defenses.
Now, big plays are inherently less predictable—there’s a reason fantasy managers should target those dominant all-around units. But as is the case at most positions in fantasy football, there’s more than one way to build the proverbial mousetrap.
THE NO-DOUBTERS
Dallas Cowboys (at Carolina Panthers)
The gap has narrowed, but 10 weeks into the 2023 season the Dallas Cowboys remain the No. 1 defense in fantasy football after pounding an overmatched New York Giants team in Week 10. The Cowboys have logged a respectable 14 takeaways and 26 sacks after dropping Danny DeVito (Tommy, whatever—NFL quarterbacks who live with their parents deserve to be mocked) five times last week, but it’s the Cowboys’ four defensive scores that have kept them in the lead. They also face a Panthers team in Week 11 that has surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season.
Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh Steelers)
The 6-3 Browns are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL, and the defense has been the engine for that success. The Browns lead the league in total defense at 242.7 yards allowed per game. Lead the NFL in pass defense at 151.1 yards allowed per game. Cleveland ranks seventh against the run and sixth in points allowed. Edge-rusher Myles Garrett is tied for the league lead with 11 sacks. The Browns are tied for fourth in the league with 15 takeaways. And the team ranks fourth among all defenses in fantasy points. Cleveland’s an every-week start at this point in the season.
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Last week was easily San Francisco’s best fantasy effort of the season, but it’s not like the 49ers haven’t been playing good defense from an NFL perspective. The Niners have surrendered the fifth-fewest yards per game this season, rank fourth against the run at 83.1 yards per game and third in scoring defense at 15.9 points per game allowed. The problem before last week’s blasting of the Jaguars was that the 49ers weren’t logging a lot of big plays. If Nick Bosa and the pass rush get going and the Niners keep logging takeaways, they could be a fantasy force down the stretch.
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
The Ravens are reeling a bit after last week’s last-second loss to the rival Browns, but there’s no time to sulk—now Baltimore has to host the reigning AFC North champions on a short week. The Bengals aren’t a favorable matchup in terms of fantasy points per game surrendered to defenses, but the Ravens lead the NFL with 39 sacks, have notched 15 takeaways, rank second in the NFL in total defense and lead the league in scoring defense while having posted the most fantasy points among defenses of any team in the AFC this season.
Buffalo Bills (vs. New York Jets)
After dropping to 5-5 following Monday night’s loss to the Broncos at home, the Bills need a win in Week 11 as bad as any team in the NFL. However, while the Buffalo offense has struggled the defense has done what it can to keep the team on track—the Bills are fifth in scoring defense, rank toward the top of the league in takeaways, have the second-most sacks (33) in the league and have posted the fifth-most fantasy points in the league. Add in an opponent in the New York Jets who have given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to defenses, and you have the recipe for success.
New York Jets (at Buffalo Bills)
This might appear an odd call at first glance—but it’s a matter of perception versus reality. This Bills team isn’t the offensive juggernaut of years past—at least right now. The Bills rank outside the top-20 in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses for the season, but over the past month as the Bills have struggled with giveaways that number has climbed to eighth. The Jets have their own struggles on offense as well, but the Jets are sixth in the league in total defense, have amassed 15 takeaways for the season and rank 11th in fantasy points among defenses.
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Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago Bears)
After a great start to the season (at least relative to last year’s 32nd-ranked defense) the Detroit defense has backslid of late, surrendering 38 points to the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. But this week the Lions won’t be taking on the first-place Ravens or a Chargers team with a potent offense. This week the Lions welcome in the Chicago Bears, who have surrendered the third-most fantasy points per game to defenses this season. It’s unknown whether Justin Fields will play in this game, but it’s not like the Bears weren’t a favorable fantasy matchup for opposing defenses with Fields at the helm in 2022.
Pittsburgh Steelers (at Cleveland Browns)
The Steelers have made NFL history this year—never before has a team that has been out-gained in each of their first nine games won six of them. And to be clear, it’s edge-rusher T.J. Watt, safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and the defense that has carried the Steelers to this point in the season. That defense (which ranks seventh in fantasy points) is banged-up right now, but the Steelers remain a team that excels at rushing the quarterback, and the Browns have been kind to opposing fantasy defenses—sixth in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses.
Miami Dolphins (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
All the talk in Miami this season has centered around the team’s league-leading offense, but the defense has had its moments, too. And now that defensive back Jalen Ramsey and edge-rusher Jaelan Phillips are healthy and back on the field, that defense should be that much better. Meanwhile, the Raiders might be 2-0 under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but the team has struggled to move the ball with rookie Aidan O’ Connell at quarterback, and for the season the Raiders rank eighth in fantasy points per game given up to defenses.
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Tennessee Titans)
Over the first nine weeks of the season, the Jaguars were among the league leaders in takeaways and ranked seventh among all team defenses in fantasy points. But then came last week’s visit from the San Francisco 49ers—and the wheels came off the bus. However, Sunday’s visit from the Tennessee Titans should offer an opportunity to right the ship. After an outstanding first start, rookie quarterback Will Levis hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass in either of his last two starts, and the Titans are averaging just 11 points per game over that span.
Washington Commanders (vs. New York Giants)
The Commanders weren’t an especially good defensive football team before sending edge-rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young packing, and things haven’t improved since—the Commanders are 29th in total offense, 31st in scoring offense and rank 29th for the season among fantasy defenses. But this is a classic play that has nothing to do with the defense and everything to do with its opponent. The New York Giants haven’t just led the league this season in fantasy points per game allowed to defenses—if anything things have gotten worse with Tommy DeVito under center.
CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS
Philadelphia Eagles (at Kansas City Chiefs)
Frankly, this is an interchangeable recommendation—like a reversible belt. Both the Philadelphia and Kansas City defenses have been solid this season from an NFL and fantasy perspective—the Chiefs are eighth in fantasy points among defenses for the season. But both of these teams also feature prolific offenses who aren’t good matchups for opposing defenses, with the Eagles ranking in the bottom-five in fantasy points per game allowed to team defenses. This should be an exciting game—but it’s going to be a more exciting one for the offensive players.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter at @IDPSharks
