Game day preview | Illinois at Purdue; 2:30 p.m., Peacock

Sep. 30—Beat writer Scott Richey previews the Illini's showdown with the Boilermakers ahead of Saturday's 2:30 p.m. kickoff at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, Ind., in the Big Ten West divisional showdown (Peacock, WDWS 1400-AM, 93.9-FM, WHMS 97.5-FM):

Three big storylines

Turning yards into points

Illinois put up 510 yards of total offense, but scored just 23 points, in last Saturday's 23-17 win against Florida Atlantic. For the season, the Illini offense is averaging 394.8 yards per game, which is good for seventh in the Big Ten and 70th nationally. But Illinois' 22.3 points per game? Try 10th in the conference and 98th in the country. The Illini have shown an ability to move the ball. Just not one to score it.

Those are totals that would have been bolstered had Kaden Feagin not received the "grind to get down" directive from the coaching staff at the end of the FAU game. The Owls were going to let the freshman running back score. The Illini played the numbers, knowing their probability to win maxed out if Feagin went to the ground.

"I'm never going to be one that tries to put points on artificially at the end," Illinois coach Bret Bielema said. "But, on the flip side of that, statistically in my career it doesn't look as pretty as people want it to be. You just hope it ends up in wins. I do think if you have 500 yards of offense you're going to certainly hope you're on the board for more than 23 (points).

"As a head coach, we've had three games where we've started off very well offensively and ended up with zero points. To me, at the beginning of the game, to march the field 50, 60, 70 yards and come away with zero points, that has a lingering effect. There's an effect there. If you have points after going all the way down the field, that has a huge carryover the rest of the game."

Barry Lunney Jr. decided to start the 2023 season calling plays from the press box. It was a change from how he operated in 2022 as his first season as Illinois' offensive coordinator, but it was a move Lunney was comfortable making.

Luke Altmyer's demeanor at quarterback played a role. So did having former quarterback (now student assistant) Art Sitkowski at field level. But after Altmyer's four-interception game against Penn State, Lunney moved back to calling plays from the sideline last week against Florida Atlantic. It's where he'll likely stay the rest of the season.

"I think I said to you guys early in the season about my decision to go up, we felt like that was right for our team," Lunney said. "And I did feel like that was right for our team at that point in time. What it came down to was we had not played the way that we need to play. I felt disconnected from the team to some degree, and I just wanted to get back down there with them and go to battle with them.

"Was it good for us? I don't think it hurt us. I liked interacting with the players and the coaches. We had good communication and feedback with the coaches, and Luke, being able to communicate with him, I think that was a real positive thing."

Settling in at the safety position

Illinois probably had Matthew Bailey penciled in to replace Sydney Brown at strong safety in 2023 midway through the 2022 season. Brown left big shoes to fill in a position he held almost since his arrival on campus in 2018 and through two coaching staffs, but Bailey showed flashes as a true freshman that he'd be an apt replacement. Offseason foot surgery for Bailey derailed those plans to start the 2023 season. His brief debut before a season-ending shoulder injury against Penn State on Sept. 16 derailed them again. While Southern Illinois transfer Clayton Bush filled that safety role early in the season, Louisville transfer Nicario Harper assumed it last week.

"I tell the guys I don't care who's the starter," Illinois defensive coordinator Aaron Henry said. "You've got to show me in practice, though. Over fall camp and practice the first couple weeks, Nicario didn't show me that. He didn't. Mental errors. Wasn't doing what he was suppose to do. Doing too much. Just do your job. It ain't no secret sauce in it. His opportunity came because, obviously, (Bailey) went down. There was a rotation there, and I felt like he was going to give us the best opportunity.

"For a guy to transfer into here, don't play immediately, he could have turned his back on the program or cried about not playing. He didn't do that — at least not to me. He knew what he needed to work on, and he got better every single week and improved, and I think the testament to that was (the Florida Atlantic game). I've never seen that young man so calm. He is not a calm person. He ain't calm at all. I've never seen him so calm on game day. He's matured so much in the span of the last six months, man."

Two key matchups

Bret Bielema vs. Ryan Walters

This game has meaning beyond keeping Illinois' hopes of a first division title (in the last year possible) and a second straight bowl game alive. It has recruiting implications, too. There was already a crossover with the players the Illini and Purdue recruited before Walters left Champaign to lead the Boilermakers. The two teams are bound to cross paths on the recruiting trail even more given the similarity in defensive style and the personnel necessary to run it well. The winner gets more than just the "Cannon." They'll get the upper hand in recruiting, too.

Any non-Johnny Newton Illinois defender vs. Purdue's offensive line

FAU positioned its blocking scheme last week to thwart Newton. The Owls weren't hesitant about throwing a double-team or triple-team at the Illini's preseason All-American defensive tackle. Doing so limited, in some ways, the impact Newton could have on the game. It also created an opportunity for Keith Randolph Jr. to show why he's got NFL potential, too, and the 6-foot-5, 300-pound defensive tackle finished with seven tackles, including 21/2 tackles for loss and one sack. Should Purdue shift its focus more toward Newton, as well, Randolph and the others on the Illinois defensive front have to take advantage.

One stat that matters

Minus-6. That would be Illinois' turnover margin through four games — a mark that is among the worst in the country. The Illini have lost the ball 10 times so far this season, with seven interceptions and three fumbles, and the defense has managed one fumble recovery and three interceptions. Penn State, with four picks off Altmyer, is at the other end of the spectrum. The Nittany Lions' turnover margin is plus-11, which is aided by having 11 takeaways and zero turnovers.

Illinois will win if

... last week's rushing offense wasn't a fluke. The Illini might be a little more dynamic through the air with Altmyer, an improved Isaiah Williams and tight ends that now seem to be a part of the passing game, but a successful Bielema team runs the ball first (and runs it well). All four running backs got involved in last week's win against FAU, and if Josh McCray can repeat what he did in West Lafayette, Ind., two years ago (24 carries for 154 yards), the Illini could get a key road win.

Purdue will win if

... this week is when the Walters' defense truly kicks into gear. The Boilermakers have given up 1,616 yards and 129 points through four games, with 30 defensive penalties for 266 yards not helping their cause. And those totals include an actual strong defensive performance in Purdue's Week 2 win at Virginia Tech. At Ross-Ade Stadium? That's where the Boilermakers have allowed an average of 433.3 yards and 37.3 points in three home losses.