Four key takeaways from the NCAA's in-season top 16 bracket reveal

Each February, about a month before Selection Sunday, the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee offers a snapshot of its top 16 teams.

The in-season reveal often turns out to be a good barometer of what the top of the bracket will look like when the actual field is unveiled.

Of the 96 teams that appeared in the in-season brackets, 80 have remained a top-four seed on Selection Sunday. At least three of the four No. 1 seeds in every in-season reveal have also retained their place on the actual bracket’s top seed line. Those numbers exclude 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced the cancellation of the NCAA tournament days before Selection Sunday.

Last year’s UConn team was the only national champ that didn’t crack the committee’s in-season top 16. Trae Young-led Oklahoma had the steepest fall in 2018, falling from a projected No. 4 seed in the in-season bracket all the way to a No. 10 on Selection Sunday.

Selection committee chair Charles McClelland joined CBS on Saturday afternoon to reveal this year’s in-season top 16. Below is the committee’s partial bracket and four key takeaways:

1. Purdue leads the race for the No. 1 overall seed

The biggest question leading up to the in-season bracket reveal was who would secure the No. 1 overall seed.

Would it be Purdue, which has a national-best nine Quadrant 1 wins and zero losses outside the top quadrant? Or would it be UConn, the reigning national champ who is No. 1 in the AP Top 25 and even better now than it was at this point last season? Or would it be Houston, co-leaders of the nation’s toughest conference and No. 1 in the major advanced metrics?

Purdue was the committee’s unanimous choice, McClelland said, because of its “number of quality wins.” McClelland specifically cited the Boilermakers 7-0 record against the top half of Quadrant 1, which includes victories over six teams in the committee's top 16, Arizona, Alabama, Tennessee, Marquette, Illinois and Wisconsin. All but one of those victories came away from Mackey Arena.

UConn, by contrast, is 3-1 against the top half of the top quadrant. Houston is 4-3. Either has an argument that they’re as good a team as Purdue, but for now neither has as strong a resume as the Big Ten-leading Boilermakers.

2. Arizona has the inside track at the fourth No. 1 seed

While it was no mystery that Purdue, UConn and Houston would land on the top seed line in the bracket reveal, the committee’s choice of Arizona as the final No. 1 seed carried more intrigue. The Wildcats beat out North Carolina, Tennessee and Marquette for that spot — and apparently it wasn’t all that close.

When former Villanova coach Jay Wright asked if Arizona snuck in over some of those other teams, McClelland responded that the Wildcats were “firmly” the fourth No. 1 seed and “didn’t sneak in at all.” McClelland added that “for the first time in the history of our committee” the four No. seeds were unanimously chosen by all 12 committee members in the same order.

The selection of Arizona (19-5) is pretty easy to defend considering the Wildcats are 7-3 in Quadrant 1 and have only one loss outside the top two quadrants. That’s a better Quadrant 1 record than any of the teams trailing them. Only Marquette has a reasonable argument over Arizona as of now by virtue of its 6-4 Quadrant 1 record and lack of losses outside the top two quadrants.

The good news for the teams chasing Arizona is that they each have more remaining chances for marquee wins than the Wildcats do. The best remaining teams that Arizona will face during the regular season are Washington State and UCLA, which means the Wildcats may not have much margin for error if they hope to keep that No. 1 seed in the West.

3. The Big 12 is poised for a big March

Already the strongest conference in college basketball the past few years, the Big 12 bolstered its position with the addition of Houston, BYU, Cincinnati and UCF this season. Houston has been a fixture in the top five in the polls all season while BYU, Cincinnati and UCF have only made the Big 12 deeper.

The Big 12’s strength was apparent Saturday when it landed four teams in the committee’s top 11. Houston earned a No. 1 seed, Kansas landed a No. 2 and Baylor and Iowa State both were among the committee’s No. 3 seeds.

Most mock brackets project the Big 12 to earn as many as 9 or 10 NCAA tournament bids next month. BYU, Texas Tech, Texas, Oklahoma and TCU all project to solidly make the field of 68, while Cincinnati needs a strong stretch run to join them.

4. Who were the biggest snubs?

There were three teams who nearly edged Wisconsin for the final No. 4 seed in Saturday’s bracket reveal. Atlantic 10 favorite Dayton was “absolutely close,” McClelland said, as were Creighton and Clemson.

How feisty did the arguments get for one team over another? McClelland said so far it was a 6 out of 10 compared to previous years.

“No fist fights yet,” McClelland added with a smile.