Can Florida State afford to wait much longer in whirlwind conference realignment race?

When it comes to conference realignment, football teams want to play where the money is. And not enough money is available in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Florida State’s future in the league is on borrowed time. The Seminoles’ next move remains fiercely debated and complex.

Big Ten? SEC? Make a play on their own?

Leadership has been extremely candid in its tone about the possibility of leaving the conference because of the growing revenue gap between the league and the Power Two – SEC and Big 10.

Florida State must keep pressure on ACC when it comes to revenue sharing

That trend could continue during Wednesday’s Board of Trustees meeting.

While athletics is currently not on the agenda, it’s in FSU’s best interest to publicly continue to express its strong feelings about deserving additional revenue from the conference.

FSU President Richard McCullough drew a line in the sand a year ago at the Tallahassee Chamber of Commerce Conference when he mentioned Seminole football and conference realignment and said, "We're trying to do anything we can to think about how we remain competitive. Florida State is expected to win. We're going to be very aggressive."

And FSU Director of Athletics Michael Alford, on the lead horse, yelled ‘Charge” at last February’s BOT meeting when he said “Something has to change” in regards to conference revenue sharing and the Seminoles’ future in the ACC.

That’s the issue.

FSU doesn’t have a future in the ACC under the league's house rules.

'An existential crisis': Florida State president, Board of Trustees low on ACC future

What they said: 4 key quotes from Florida State Board of Trustees meeting about conference realignment

Even while the ACC has created a new revenue distribution model that will reward success based on postseason performance starting in 2024-25, the math doesn't add up. The league will fall further behind the SEC and Big Ten in revenue by about $30 to $40 million per year when their respective new television contracts start (Big Ten in 2023, SEC in 2024).

The ACC’s grant of rights deal with ESPN (exclusive media rights to game broadcasts) extends until 2036. It has been a lead balloon for members. But they granted their media rights to the ACC through the length of the contract and decide how to split the dough. ESPN, as a television partner, could renegotiate the conference payout. But it is losing subscribers, laying off employees and scuffling as a business, too.

Of course, Colorado’s abrupt exit from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 has reignited hot-and-heavy conference chatter. Is Arizona the next to jump? FSU also seems to be trending. The latest on social media is FSU, Clemson, Oregon and Washington will announce by week’s end their intentions to join the Big Ten.

These are certainties:

FSU and others in the ACC like Clemson and Miami have recognized the financial landscape isn’t going to improve on Tobacco Road.

Contracts are negotiable.

Atlantic Coast Conference has seen revenues soar, but still not enough to keep pace with SEC and Big Ten

The ACC has seen its revenues soar the past two decades, but it still won't have enough surplus cash to keep pace with the Power Two. And neither the SEC or Big Ten wants to be a step behind the other. They have watched, waited and winked at each other (with rubber mallets hidden behind their backs).

The ACC’s future, despite its successes on the field and in the classroom, is in peril.

It closed out the 2022-23 academic year with a league-record nine NCAA titles and 29 individual national championships. And seven schools ranked among the top-40 in the 2022 U.S. News National Rankings (FSU was No. 55).

League Commissioner Jim Phillips is also a respected, integrity-driven leader who is working tirelessly to identify new revenue. He has done all he can to provide an image of strength, saying at ACC Media Days he's "bullish" about the league's future. Last week he also told ESPN the league continues to actively consider adding teams but has not identified enough value in any expansion option.

Yet any step is an uphill climb when there are ACC school presidents who still resist improving football (and athletics) in the league.

While the ACC is currently No. 3 behind the Big Ten and SEC in terms of revenue, that badge of honor is simply not good enough. Especially if the courts of law, as many believe, determine the college sports model is further outdated. Student-athletes two years ago were finally allowed to monetize their name, image and likeness (NIL), and some have found it to be quite lucrative.

If student-athletes are one day classified as employees, schools with the most revenue have a built-in advantage to acquire talent (players and coaches) and invest in facilities. Those revenue-sharing models, particularly in the profit-generating sports of football and basketball, would spell further doom for the ACC (and others) and potentially turn nonrevenue sports into glorified club teams.

What's the end game for FSU and conference realignment?

Any school planning to leave the ACC in the next year would have to notify the conference in writing by Aug. 15. If not, it means schools must remain in the league for two more years.

While there is no change in the Seminoles' status as an ACC member at this moment, they literally can’t afford to remain in the ACC beyond two more years. It will be expensive to leave and, in its own way, expensive to stay and attempt to keep pace with schools with more dough and resources. FSU could negotiate the league’s $120 million exit fee; dig its heels in for the legal battle over the sticky grant of rights and jump conferences (for a negotiated deal); or venture out solo, without a safety net.

Status quo doesn't work anymore.

That's why Alford, in a mad rush, has made substantial investments in football since he was hired 19 months ago. He is working daily to make FSU marketable to other conferences. The Seminoles had fallen behind nationally in resources and wins (32-32 in the ACC since 2015).

Despite the challenges, FSU's brand is strong and undervalued in the ACC.

The Seminoles averaged 2.03 million viewers per game during their 10-win season in 2022 under Mike Norvell, and three games eclipsed the 4 million mark. The FSU-Florida game in a special Black Friday slot was ABC's most-watched game (6.71 viewers) on date since 2005. The Seminoles actually played last season in the two most-watched games to include an ACC team.

It's also about who you are right now.

Norvell, who received a contract extension last February that nearly doubled his annual salary to $8.05 million, has brought stability to FSU. He has embraced expectations, underlined core values and emphasized sustaining success. The Seminoles enter 2023 in the national conversation and its opener against LSU in Orlando is a likely top-10 showdown.

Conference realignment starts with football, but where does it end?

Two major Super Conferences in the SEC and Big Ten?

Four 20-team conferences in the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC/combined with the Pac-12, which appears to be on life support?

Time will tell.

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: ACC football, FSU look for money answers with conference jump possible