Five things to watch in Week 17: Marcus Mariota's stock and DFS bargains

As we head into the final chapter of the NFL’s regular season, every little detail doesn’t matter. Hell, some TEAMS don’t even matter. Even in daily fantasy tournaments and sports betting, we’re trying to do all we can to make lasting wins before the hourglass runs out. Here, we’ll focus on five of the biggest storylines that could shape outcomes in all lines of fake and real football for Week 17.

Is Marcus Mariota playing — and does it matter?

As the week goes on, the Titans seem encouraged by Marcus Mariota’s work in practice. We ought to expect the answer to the first question is yes, Mariota will play.

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When it comes to the second question, the answer is a little less clear. From a brass-tacks perspective, it certainly makes a difference whether the Titans have their starting quarterback. Anyone who has followed football over the last eight years knows Blaine Gabbert is one of the least inspiring options behind center across the league.

The numbers bear out the difference, as well, with Gabbert posting a 59.7 percent completion rate and 6.4 yards per attempt in relief and starting duty this year compared to 68.9 percent and 7.6 for Mariota.

It’s impossible to argue that going from Mariota to Gabbert would be a tangible downgrade, even if Gabbert played reasonably well against Washington last Saturday. The meat of this debate lies with just how much of a boost can the presence of Mariota provide the Titans in a Week 17 “win-and-in” game.

The Titans have been a mercurial team all year in the first season of Mike Vrabel’s tenure, oftentimes offering a middling outfit but occasionally (at least once a month) flashing the promise some held for them heading into this season. The exact same could be said for their overall solid starting quarterback.

As he’s left the lineup again and again with injury this year, Mariota has occasionally delivered legitimately elevating performances. Tennessee’s wins over Philadelphia, Dallas, New England and their Week 12 loss to Houston provide the best cases.

At other times, Mariota has appeared to be just along for the ride or worse, such as in losses to Buffalo and Indianapolis, as well as their recent win in New York.

It’s fair to say with all of 2018 in mind — with health, results and play considered — Marcus Mariota remains an enigma as an NFL starting quarterback. Week 17 provides him the chance to stake a further case that when he’s healthy, he is indeed a difference-maker for this team.

The Colts at Titans matchup will be one of the most pivotal of the final regular season slate. The stakes are high for both teams and an opportunity exists for Mariota to close an inconsistent opportunity on a strong note.

Teddy Bridgewater watch

The Saints ultimately seem destined to rest a handful of stars in the final week of the regular season, even if they have made few definitive statements. One they have made, however, is that Teddy Bridgewater will start in Week 17.

Bridgewater hasn’t started a game since 2015, prior to a near career-death experience in the Vikings 2016 training camp. He made a brief appearance last season for Minnesota, chucking a pick on just two pass attempts. However, the former first-round pick has only increased his stock since then.

After signing with the Jets on a bare-bone contract this offseason, the Saints coveted him enough to pry him away for the price of a third-round pick. Bridgewater will likely once again get the chance to show why he’s a desirable asset at football’s most important position.

Bridgewater’s contract will expire in March, sending him to unrestricted free agency. The Saints parted with a Day 2 draft pick in order to acquire his services. It’s hard to imagine they just let him walk with no compensation. Either way, teams will be ready to get into the Teddy sweepstakes, as long as he just looks competent in this game.

With Justin Herbert returning to school and weakening the draft class crop, in conjunction with yet another uninspiring free agent selection at the position, Bridgewater has a shot to be one of the most sought-after players at the position this offseason.

He’s an interesting DFS option ($26) this week against a poor Panthers defense now that we have clarity he’s starting, but it’s more interesting to see if he has a chance to improve the stock of a group of skill position players for next season.

Fine, The Buccaneers passing game (again)

While I try to love all 32 of my little team-children equally, there’s always a handful of teams I wouldn’t mind exiling around Week 11 amid an exhaustingly boring season with an all too repetitive week-to-week product. The Giants are usually that team and were again this year but the Buccaneers have sneakily pushed for that honor in recent seasons. Here in 2018, they secured the title quickly.

Yet, as we find ourselves in the season of giving, I can open my heart one last time to care about the 2018 iteration of the Buccaneers passing game. Only because of curiosity for how similar it will look to next season.

The most consequential question obviously lies at the quarterback position. Jameis Winston, while anything but reliable, has probably played well enough to at least be an option for whatever staff comes in next. Neither the draft nor the free agent crop appears overflowing with clear solutions, which means the Bucs may add some competition while letting Winston play out the string on his fifth-year option.

The more intriguing watch is the group of pass-catchers, which could lose both DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries this offseason. Constricting the usage tree in Tampa would be huge for the stock of the remaining assets. Despite the crowded house, Mike Evans has had one of his most efficient seasons, enjoying career-highs in several efficiency marks.

Chris Godwin could also push for 100-plus targets next season if Humphries and especially Jackson find new homes. Godwin has handled a starting workload to end the season but has run on the extreme cold side of variance with four catches for 52 yards on 19 targets over the last three weeks.

At just $15 in Yahoo DFS, Godwin has a shot to turn some of that volume into production against a folded Atlanta defense as Tampa Bay has nothing but the future to play for here in Week 17.

A strong finish would be a welcome sight for both Evans and the more in-need but talented Godwin. Should the latter take the next step in 2019 and the Bucs remain a pass-heavy team, don’t rule this duo out as a potential top-10 receiver pairing next year.

Rookie quarterback duel in the AFC North

Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield will meet in Week 17 in the first of many AFC North duels between these two current rookie quarterbacks. Both players have their teams sky-high with optimism right now, but are doing it in different ways.

Mayfield’s infectious bravado is matched only by his sterling efficiency. The No. 1 overall pick has completed 71 percent of his passes with an 8.5 yards per attempt and 111.4 passer rating since Week 9 when Freddie Kitchens took over as the OC.

Jackson, meanwhile, remains an incomplete product as a passer but has led a revival in the Baltimore offense. The Ravens have become a rushing force on offense, averaging 218.5 rushing yards per game in his six starts with Jackson chipping in 77.7 on his own.

While the Ravens are on the brink of a playoff berth, the Browns can only play spoiler to the team that is an ever-present ghost of the first rendition of Cleveland’s team. Both Jackson ($26) and Mayfield ($27) make for interesting DFS plays in Week 17, with Jackson the safer bet given his rushing floor and status as a home favorite.

Yet, don’t rule put the fiery Mayfield working wonders in an effort to leave his mark on the 2018 regular season. No matter what, something in the air feels like it won’t be the last we see him leave an impact on postseason positioning. It just might be for his own team next time around.

Top wide receiver playing time

One of the primary reasons playing your fantasy championship in Week 17 is not fun lies with the murky playing time outlook for some of the best players in the sport. Between prolific offenses resting assets as they coast into the postseason and stars shutting it down for meaningless games to avoid serious injury, it’s normal to see big-name players play a fraction of their normal snap counts, if at all.

The top-priced wide receivers in Yahoo Daily Fantasy provide a perfect series of examples of this conundrum. Several receivers priced $28 and above have some sort of playing time wart. Michael Thomas ($30) is likely to miss most of Week 17 with the Saints having little to play for. Davante Adams ($33) and Julio Jones ($31) are in smash spots against the Lions and Buccaneers. That said, both have injury question marks while playing on teams with nothing to gain but statistical benchmarks by playing their cornerstone wideouts on a normal snap count. We already know Odell Beckham ($28) will miss another week with his quad malady.

DeAndre Hopkins ($29) and Adam Thielen ($30) are in theoretical tough matchups against the Jaguars and Bears. At least their teams are motivated to push the ball to their star wideouts as much as possible, however. The Vikings stamp their playoff ticket with a win. The Texans need a victory to secure the AFC South crown and therefore, at least one home playoff game.

The Steelers duo of Antonio Brown ($30) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($28) are in excellent spots in a game the team needs to win to even have a shot at a playoff spot. Tyreek Hill ($32) got banged up during the Chiefs loss to the Seahawks but if he’s healthy, he should see a full plate of targets against a generous Oakland secondary with the Chiefs still needing to lock-up the No. 1 seed. Of all the top-priced wide receivers, you’d expect these three to be the most popular.

In my first pass at a DFS lineup, I thought Julio Jones would make a ton of sense. As the week wears on, I’ve considered pivoting to DeAndre Hopkins. Not only should he come in with low ownership, from a bottom-line perspective, he’s been fine against Jacksonville’s defense over the last two years, averaging 12.3 targets per game and 14.5 half-PPR points. In a game the Texans need to win to keep their playoff positioning among the top three seeds, Hopkins should absorb plenty of targets given the decimated state of the Houston receiving corps.

Three DFS bargains for the road

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($14)

The 49ers are double-digit road dogs in Week 17 but Wilson should draw a start with Matt Breida finally packing it in for 2018. Wilson also showed some passing game chops in a surprisingly big Week 13 workload with eight catches for 73 yards on nine targets in Seattle. His ultra-cheap price tag allows you to cast out for bigger fish.

Vance McDonald ($14)

If you’re not inclined to chase one of the top Pittsburgh wideouts, you can still get access to the Steelers scoring potential in a must-win matchup against a rough defense with their tight end. McDonald has little in the way of predictable volume but no team has allowed more touchdowns to tight ends than the Bengals. If a good tilt excites you and you decide to pass on a high-priced, secure tight end, here you go.

T.Y Hilton ($23)

With the Colts and Titans both having every bit of motivation to win this game, we should see both offenses go for broke. Hilton isn’t a punt play, of course, but has one of the best volume projections outside the top-tier of wideouts. The Titans secondary has been dunked on by receivers all season and their best corner is coming off a rough game in Week 16.

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