Five things to know about Mississippi State ahead of Week 3 SEC opener
LSU begins SEC play this week with a trip to Starkville to face Mississippi State.
Brian Kelly and Zach Arnett will meet as head coaches for the first time, and it will also serve as Kelly’s first game at Mississippi State.
It’s an 11 a.m. CT kickoff, a time LSU struggled with in 2022.
Mississippi State is 2-0 after pulling out a win in overtime against Arizona last week. There are a lot of familiar faces on this Bulldog team filled with upperclassmen, but a lot has changed since last year, too.
Here are five things you should know about Mississippi State before the game on Saturday.
This isn't last year's Mississippi State
After the passing of Mike Leach, Zach Arnett was promoted to head coach.
The Bulldogs no longer run Leach’s patterned air raid system. They’ve gone in an entirely different direction, so much so that running back Jo’quavious Marks leads the SEC in carries after two games.
“Offensively, there’s quite a different change there,” Kelly said at his press conference on Monday. “Going away from the air raid offense, going to a much more traditional offense. It is one that certainly many see in college football.”
Last year, MSU averaged 48.8 passing attempts per game. This year, that number is all the way down to 23 attempts per game. That’s more than a 100% decrease.
Arnett’s Bulldogs run fewer plays too. Mississippi State ranked 38th in plays run last year compared to 100th this year.
From a preparation standpoint, this could make things easier for LSU. Without the air raid, Mississippi State doesn’t require a complete reworking of the defensive playbook like we’ve seen LSU do in years past.
Will Rogers is one of the most experienced QBs in the sport
As Kelly noted this week, Mississippi State QB Will Rogers has 35-straight starts under his belt. He’ll make his third career start against LSU on Saturday.
You’d have to go back to Bo Nix in 2021 to find the last time a QB made three straight starts against LSU.
Rogers is still completing passes at a high rate, ranking fifth in the SEC.
The air raid was known for its passing game that often operated close to the line of scrimmage. Despite the scheme change, that hasn’t changed much for Rogers, who ranks last in the SEC in depth of target.
That’s not an indictment of Rogers, more so just an insight into how the offense wants to attack defenses.
And even with the depth of target remaining low, Rogers’ yards per attempt have risen a whole two yards thanks to pass catchers working after the catch.
Wide receiver Lideatrick Griffin ranks third among SEC receivers in YAC while Marks ranks third among SEC running backs.
The biggest change in the passing game is the addition of play-action. Rogers only used play action on 6% of dropbacks in 2022. That rate has skyrocketed to 34% in 2023.
This is still Zach Arnett's defense
With all the changes on the offensive side, the defensive scheme remains Zach Arnett’s.
You might remember Arnett was a candidate to take the LSU DC job in 2021 under Ed Orgeron.
When Arnett got the head coaching job, he promoted linebackers coach Matt Brock to take over the defensive coordinator role.
After the unit ranked 11th in the SEC in yards per play allowed in 2021, the Bulldogs were top five last year. They did a good job getting after teams in obvious passing situations, ranking 11 nationally in passing down PPA.
But last week against Arizona, this group had some issues. They allowed a success rate of 50% and an explosive play rate of 13%. Every offense would take either of those numbers any day of the week.
Mississippi State did a good job against the run, but Arizona went to work through the air.
Players to know
We’ve already talked about QB Will Rogers, but here are some other guys MSU will count on this Saturday.
RB Jo’Quavious Marks
Marks ranks third among Power Five running backs in PFF rushing grade. Not only does he led SEC running backs in carries and yards, but his 91 receiving yards lead the conference too.
WR Lideatrick Griffin
Griffin’s caught nine of his 11 targets this year and was MSU’s leading receiver in the win over Arizona. He does his damage from the slot and LSU’s nickels and linebackers will have their hands full.
LB Jett Johnson
Johnson is one of the best linebackers in the SEC and has over 1,400 career snaps. His seven pressures this year rank second among SEC linebackers.
Safety Shawn Preston
Despite MSU’s pass defense having some struggles, Preston was a difference maker for the Bulldogs. He’s been with MSU since 2018, but Arnett said the Arizona game was the best of Preston’s career.
Mississippi State HC Zach Arnett: Based on my recent memory, Saturday was the best game Shawn Preston played of his career
— Jon Sokoloff (@JonSokoloff) September 11, 2023
Series notes
LSU’s enjoyed its fair share of success in Starkville.
The Tigers have lost just twice there since 1992 and just once this century. That loss came in 2017, when MSU steamrolled to a 37-7 win.
State’s last win over LSU was the 2020 opener when Mike Leach’s air raid marched all over the Tigers’ defense.
These two schools first met in 1896, making it LSU’s longest running rivalry. Saturday will mark the 117th meeting of the two.
