Five Tennessee football bowl projections, from Citrus to Music City

No. 20 Tennessee football could be bound for the Citrus Bowl or Music City Bowl — or virtually any bowl in between.

With five regular-season games remaining, a lot of possibilities are on the table.

And yes, it could be better or worse. The Vols could upset No. 1 Georgia, run the table to finish 10-2 and go to a New Year’s Six bowl. They also could get swept in their remaining four SEC games, finish 6-6 and fall to the Liberty Bowl.

But for now, let’s focus on the most plausible scenarios and adjust projections as the season goes along.

Tennessee (5-2, 2-2 SEC) is most likely in contention for the second tier of SEC bowls — that is, those below the College Football Playoff and New Year’s Six bowls. It would take a record of 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3 to be in that field.

More: SEC bowl projections: College Football Playoff, New Year's Six predictions after Week 8

Missouri (7-1, 3-1), Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1), LSU (6-2, 4-1), Florida (5-2, 3-1) and Kentucky (5-2, 2-2) are the major competitors for the top tier bowls. And that adds stakes to Tennessee’s upcoming road games against Kentucky (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN) and Missouri (Nov. 11).

These projections assume that one SEC team gets into the CFP and one SEC team gets into a New Year’s Six bowl. For now, that would be Georgia and Alabama, respectively, but a lot could change in the remainder of the season.

Here are the latest bowl projections for Tennessee, from most likely to least likely.

Why Tennessee could play in ReliaQuest Bowl

If Tennessee goes 4-1 the rest of the way for a 9-3 record, the ReliaQuest Bowl (Jan. 1, Tampa) would be the worst-case scenario. An 8-4 record also could put the Vols here, but they probably would be jockeying with other 8-4 teams for the spot.

CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm projects Tennessee against North Carolina in the ReliaQuest Bowl.

The Vols haven't played in this bowl (formerly the Outback Bowl) in eight years. But LSU, which hasn’t played in this bowl in 10 years, is a popular pick among projections. The Tigers could go 7-5, 8-4 or 9-3 depending on their games against Alabama, Florida and Texas A&M.

The winner of the Tennessee-Missouri game may have an inside track to the ReliaQuest Bowl.

Why Tennessee could play in Gator Bowl

If Tennessee goes 3-2 the rest of the way for an 8-4 record, the Gator Bowl (Dec. 29, Jacksonville) makes sense.

For that scenario, the Vols likely would lose to Georgia and either Kentucky or Missouri. So don’t be surprised if the Vols are upgraded in projections if they beat Kentucky.

USA TODAY Sports, Sporting News, 247Sports and Action Network’s Brett McMurphy project Tennessee going to the Gator Bowl, where it has played twice in nine years. LSU, Florida and Missouri also could fit in the Gator Bowl picture, depending on how many toss-up games they win down the stretch.

Why Tennessee would play in Citrus Bowl

If Tennessee goes 4-1 the rest of the way for a 9-3 record, it would be in contention for the Citrus Bowl (Jan. 1, Orlando). Presumably, that would include wins over Kentucky and Missouri and a loss to Georgia, but there are other combinations to that record.

Athlon Sports projects Tennessee against Wisconsin in the Citrus Bowl.

For this to happen, it would help Tennessee if Georgia beats Missouri, Florida and Ole Miss to help level the field. But Ole Miss still has the upper hand for the Citrus Bowl because it has a manageable path to 10-2 by beating Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and Mississippi State.

A 10-2 Ole Miss team also could get into a New Year’s Six bowl, opening the door wider for a 9-3 Tennessee team. But the Vols need to finish strong and get some help to land in the Citrus Bowl.

Why Tennessee would play in Duke’s Mayo Bowl

The last of multiple 8-4 teams could land in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Dec. 27, Charlotte). And considering the parity in the SEC this season, there could be a logjam for these mid-tier bowls.

A 7-5 Tennessee team could land in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. That would be a disappointing trip because it would mean the Vols lost four of their final five SEC games. But there would be a sense of newness because they have never played in this bowl (formerly the Belk Bowl).

One major obstacle to this scenario is that this game is held at Bank of America Stadium, home of the Carolina Panthers. Tennessee will play in that same stadium against North Carolina State on Sept. 7, 2024.

The Charlotte Sports Foundation might not want the same team visiting twice in nine months.

Why Tennessee would play in Music City Bowl

A 7-5 Tennessee team would be considered in the Music City Bowl (Dec. 30, Nashville). Again, it would mean the Vols had a lackluster stretch run, perhaps with wins against only UConn and Vanderbilt.

ESPN projects Tennessee against Maryland in the Music City Bowl. Nashville always likes hosting the Vols, but this bowl is almost too familiar. They have played in two of the past six Music City Bowls, including the 2021 game in coach Josh Heupel’s first season.

If it seems like a bad fit, perhaps a 7-5 Tennessee team would consider the Liberty Bowl (Dec. 29, Memphis) or Texas Bowl (Dec. 27, Houston). But the Vols would rather win enough to not have to make that decision.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football bowl projections, from Citrus to Music City