Do first CFP rankings matter? How Ole Miss' opening position could affect playoff chances
The US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 may be talking points to fans, but it isn't until Week 10 — when the first College Football Playoff polls are unveiled — that debates over rankings start to ramp up in the college football world.
Tuesday's release will kick off mountains of debate and speculation about how teams can find their way into the CFP, particularly in a 2023 season that has plenty of potential contenders. Among those contenders is Ole Miss, looking to make its first appearance.
If Lane Kiffin's squad is 7-1 (4-1 SEC) is to win the national championship in 2023, it can't suffer another defeat, the first of which which came vs. Alabama earlier this year. The last one-loss season for Rebels was in 1963, when they went 7-1-2. The year before, they went 10-0 and won the Sugar Bowl in their last claimed national championship season.
Ole Miss has a shot to play for college football's most coveted trophy this year. That, however, is putting the cart well before the horse: The College Football Playoff rankings after Week 9 are a rudimentary glimpse at where each team stands, but it does raise the question of how teams' initial rankings affect where they ultimately end up in a bid for the CFP.
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Where does Ole Miss factor into that equation in 2023, and what are its chances of making it into the top four? Here's how history has treated the teams in the CFP after the first week.
College Football Playoff initial rankings by year
The initial College Football Playoff rankings are important ... for the first four teams: Since the inaugural playoff in 2014, 21 of 36 teams ranked inside the top four of the initial rankings have made the playoff.
That doesn't mean they're guaranteed to get in, though. Indeed, the pandemic-affected 2020 season is the only year in which the same four teams opened and finished in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings. But extra consideration is given to those programs.
Mississippi State, for example, opened at No. 1 in the 2014 CFP rankings and remained in the top four in the fourth set of rankings after its first loss of 2014. It took a second loss, to Ole Miss, to drop it out of the top four.
What makes it harder to gauge is that, at the time the initial rankings drop, there is still plenty of meaningful football to be played. The idea of the initial CFP rankings isn't to be final: It's to build a foundation for the rest of the season.
With that, here's a look at the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings every year, dating back to the inaugural 2014 season (teams' final CFP rankings are listed in parentheses):
2014
1. Mississippi State (7)
2. Florida State (3)
3. Auburn (19)
4. Ole Miss (9)
2015
1. Clemson (1)
2. LSU (20)
3. Ohio State (7)
4. Alabama (2)
2016
2017
1. Georgia (3)
2. Alabama (4)
3. Notre Dame (14)
4. Clemson (1)
2018
1. Alabama (1)
2. Clemson (2)
3. LSU (11)
4. Notre Dame (3)
2019
1. Ohio State (2)
2. LSU (1)
3. Alabama (13)
4. Penn State (10)
2020
1. Alabama (1)
2. Notre Dame (4)
3. Clemson (2)
4. Ohio State (3)
2021
1. Georgia (3)
2. Alabama (1)
3. Michigan State (10)
4. Oregon (14)
2022
1. Tennessee (6)
2. Ohio State (4)
3. Georgia (1)
4. Clemson (7)
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College Football Playoff final rankings by year
Inversely, 15 of the 36 College Football Playoff participants dating to 2014 initially ranked outside the top four in the CFP rankings.
But only two of those teams ranked in the double digits of the initial top 25, and none since No. 15 Oklahoma in 2015. Making it in with a double digit ranking is extremely difficult, and 2023 is likely to be no exception.
2014
1. Alabama (6)
2. Oregon (5)
3. Florida State (2)
4. Ohio State (16)
2015
1. Clemson (1)
2. Alabama (4)
3. Michigan State (7)
4. Oklahoma (15)
2016
1. Alabama (1)
2. Clemson (2)
3. Ohio State (6)
4. Washington (5)
2017
1. Clemson (4)
2. Oklahoma (5)
3. Georgia (1)
4. Alabama (2)
2018
1. Alabama (1)
2. Clemson (2)
3. Notre Dame (4)
4. Oklahoma (7)
2019
1. LSU (2)
2. Ohio State (1)
3. Clemson (5)
4. Oklahoma (9)
2020
1. Alabama (1)
2. Clemson (3)
3. Ohio State (4)
4. Notre Dame (2)
2021
1. Alabama (2)
2. Michigan (7)
3. Georgia (1)
4. Cincinnati (6)
2022
1. Georgia (3)
2. Michigan (5)
3. TCU (7)
4. Ohio State (2)
Here's a look at how each initial ranking has fared in trying to get into the CFP.
No. 5-ranked teams: Five
No. 6-ranked teams: Three
No. 7-ranked teams: Four
No. 8-ranked teams: Zero
No. 9-ranked teams: One
No. 15-ranked teams: One
No. 16-ranked teams: One
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Ole Miss football schedule 2023
Ole Miss' schedule down the home stretch has a Bulldog-sized roadblock standing in its way.
While nothing is set in stone — Texas A&M is still a threat — the Rebels' Nov. 11 game against Georgia might make or break their CFP chances. A two-loss team has never made it into the College Football Playoff, and 2022 doesn't look like it is shaping up to break that streak.
Nov. 4: vs. Texas A&M (5-3, 3-2)
Nov. 11: at No. 1 Georgia (8-0, 5-0)
Nov. 18: vs. Louisiana Monroe (2-6, 0-5 SBC)
Nov. 23: at Mississippi State (4-4, 1-4)
A potential SEC championship game would be played Dec. 2, but Ole Miss needs an Alabama loss (preferably to LSU) to get there.
With all of this in mind, Ole Miss has a chance. But the road is winding and not entirely contingent upon how the Rebels perform. Circle Nov. 11 against Georgia. Beyond that, it comes down to how things fall around the college football landscape.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How much will first CFP rankings matter to Ole Miss football in 2023?
