Finally, a logical answer to why the Pac-12 didn’t finalize a media deal by June 30
John Canzano cracked the code. He gave a good, logical, entirely reasonable explanation for why the Pac-12 did not finalize its media rights deal by June 30 to facilitate a San Diego State move to the conference.
The question was a puzzler to college sports industry insiders: Why wouldn’t the Pac-12 move to get its media rights deal done by June 30? After all, the Pac-12 needs to get the deal done by July 21 (Pac-12 media day), so why not push the calendar forward three weeks and include San Diego State in the fold? What could be so special about waiting three weeks to get this deal done? San Diego State wrote that letter to the Mountain West in mid-June. Didn’t that indicate the Aztecs wanted to move to the Pac-12?
A piece of this was clearly missing. Canzano provided it in his latest Substack column:
Of the Pac-12, Canzano wrote “it could be that they’ve discovered a financial advantage to waiting another year to invite two new members.”
Canzano continued:
“The College Football Playoff is expanding for the 2024 season. The new TV deal is going to bring a windfall to the conferences that participate. Is it possible the Pac-12 doesn’t want to split those first-year shares 12 ways vs. 10? That it’s waiting because doing so helps make up for the haircut they took in the Comcast overpayment fiasco?
“A veteran college administrator (not from the Pac-12) floated that theory to me on Friday as the news about San Diego State landed. He offered that being without Southern California as part of the Pac-12 for one football season wouldn’t kill you on the recruiting or TV-deal fronts.”
There we go. That makes sense. The Comcast overpayment mess cost Pac-10 schools (the 10 schools that will be members when USC and UCLA leave next year) several million dollars. Waiting a year to invite San Diego State means that 2024 media rights revenues will be split 10 ways instead of 12, which will add a little more money to each of those Pac-10 schools and cushion the blow of the Comcast problem. Then the conference can bring in SDSU in the 2025-2026 college sports cycle and add the inventory it needs to reach the desired price point.
That’s the answer we were looking for. Thank you, John Canzano. This is the likely (not guaranteed) outcome of the San Diego State saga. The Aztecs will save those exit fees but will wait another year and eventually bolt. Same for SMU.
