What the final College Football Playoff predictions say after championship weekend

All the games are complete and it’s time to determine which teams will be the four to make the College Football Playoff. After USC and TCU lost in their respective conference championship games, the prevailing thought from the national media is the teams that will get an invite to play for trophies and confetti will most likely be Georgia, Michigan, TCU and Ohio State.

However, instead of asking media members that can’t seem to figure out that no team is clearly better than the other, or that teams are only as good as the last game they watch, why not check with some of the analytics? We’ve checked in with two models this year — FiveThirtyEight’s and ESPN’s, and it’s time to kick the tires one more time before the field is revealed on ESPN Sunday at noon.

Here is what those two College Football Playoff predictions say about which four teams will be in.

NEXT … Teams with the best chance in the FiveThirtyEight College Football Playoff predictions model

No. 8 - Alabama Crimson Tide

Oct. 8, 2022; Tuscaloosa; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban reacts during the second half against the Texas A&M Aggies at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

16%

No. 7 - Utah Utes (10-3) - Pac-12 Conference Champions

Ohio State football back in CFP conversation with USC's loss to Utah
Ohio State football back in CFP conversation with USC's loss to Utah

Dec 2, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada; Utah Utes wide receiver Money Parks (10) runs the ball for a touchdown against the Southern California Trojans during the second half of the Pac-12 Football Championship at Allegiant Stadium. Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

20%

 

No. 6 - Clemson Tigers (11-2) - ACC Conference Champions

Oct. 22, 2022; Clemson, South Carolina; Clemson Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei (5) and head coach Dabo Swinney talk with 11 minutes left during the fourth quarter against the Syracuse Orange at Memorial Stadium. Ken Ruinard-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

29%

No. 5- Kansas State Wildcats (10-3) - Big 12 Conference Champions

Nov. 6, 2021; Lawrence, Kansas; A general view of a Kansas State Wildcats helmet against the Kansas Jayhawks during the second half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

36%

No. 4 - Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1)

Ohio State's chances of making the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight
Ohio State's chances of making the CFP according to FiveThirtyEight

Nov. 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws the ball against Michigan Wolverines in the second quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

40%

No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (12-1)

Nov. 19, 2022; Waco, Texas; TCU Horned Frogs place kicker Griffin Kell (39) and his teammates celebrate the victory over the Baylor Bears after Kell kicks the game-winning field goal against the Bears as time expires at McLane Stadium. Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

53%

No. 2 - Michigan Wolverines - Big Ten Conference Champions

Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy runs the ball against Michigan State during the first half on Saturday, Oct. 29, 2022, in Ann Arbor. USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

>99%

No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) - SEC Conference Champions

Nov. 12, 2022; Starkville, Mississippi; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Brock Bowers (19) celebrates with running back Kendall Milton (2) after a touchdown against the Mississippi State Bulldogs during the first quarter at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field. Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

FiveThirtyEight’s percentage chance of making the playoff

>99%

NEXT … Teams with the best chance in the ESPN College Football Playoff Predictions model

No. 5 - Alabama Crimson Tide

Sept. 17, 2022; Tuscaloosa, Alabama; Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban talks to quarterback Bryce Young (9) during the second half against the UL Monroe Warhawks at Bryant-Denny Stadium. Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s percentage chance of making the playoff

23%

No. 4 - Ohio State Buckeyes

Relax Ohio State fans, the program is in good hands with Ryan Day
Relax Ohio State fans, the program is in good hands with Ryan Day

Nov. 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio; Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day waits for the playing of Carmen Ohio after losing, 45-23, to Michigan Wolverines at Ohio Stadium. USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s percentage chance of making the playoff

82%

No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs

Nov. 5, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas; TCU Horned Frogs punt returner Derius Davis (11) reacts after scoring a touchdown on an 82-yard punt return during the first half of a game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Raymond Carlin III-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s percentage chance of making the playoff

87%

No. 2 - Michigan Wolverines (13-0) - Big Ten Conference Champions

Nov. 26, 2022; Columbus, Ohio; Michigan Wolverines head coach Jim Harbaugh yells at his team against Ohio State Buckeyes in the first quarter of their game at Ohio Stadium. USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s percentage chance of making the playoff

>99%

No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (13-0) - SEC Conference Champions

Nov. 19, 2022; Lexington, Kentucky; Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Kelee Ringo (5) and defensive back Malaki Starks (24) celebrate during the second quarter against the Kentucky Wildcats at Kroger Field. Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

ESPN’s percentage chance of making the playoff

>99%

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