Final 10 bold predictions for Michigan football in 2023
The 2023 season is mere weeks away and coming in ranked No. 2 in both the AP Top 25 and USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, Michigan football has lofty expectations. And the Wolverines appear ready to meet the challenge.
Throughout the offseason, we’ve posted various bold predictions, but now that we have a better idea of what this Michigan team is, the personnel that will take the field, the strengths and weaknesses, we’re able to more intuitively predict what we think might happen for the maize and blue in 2023.
Without further ado, here are our final 10 bold predictions for Michigan football in the 2023 season.
J.J. McCarthy breaks Michigan football single-season passing record
Jon Navarre’s single-season record of 3,331 isn’t much in today’s college football. Yet, Michigan has not had a passer eclipse the mark he set in 2003.
The Wolverines intend for J.J. McCarthy to pass more this year, with an emphasis on big downfield plays. Michigan also has the potential advantage of having 13-15 games this season, which could help. He would have to pass for just 222.13 yards in 15 games, 238 yards in 14 games, and 256.31 yards in 13 games to break the record. In 14 games, McCarthy passed for 194.2 yards per game in 2022. He had six games where he passed for less than 200, including the season opener, when he came in and went 4-for-4 for 30 yards as a backup.
The danger is likely Michigan getting into early blowout situations that warrant the backup coming in. But if he plays through the third quarter most games, it’s not unreasonable to suggest McCarthy could exit the 2023 season as Michigan’s best single-season passer.
The tight ends combine for 1,000 yards receiving
Before transferring to Michigan, Indiana head coach Tom Allen suggested AJ Barner could be the best Hoosier tight end of all time. Meanwhile, Jim Harbaugh is suggesting Colston Loveland is comparable to Georgia standout Brock Bowers.
Though the Wolverines don’t have an obvious receiving threat, the offense is tight-end happy, and certainly has two pass-catching tight ends who look better on paper than Luke Schoonmaker and Erick All. Jake Butt had 654 yards in 2015, and the Wolverines have two players who are comparable, talent-wise. It’s not unfathomable that Barner and Loveland get 500 yards a piece this season as that would be an easy way to get the passing game going, targeting that duo early and often.
The interior defensive line gets 12 sacks
Kris Jenkins is a rising star and has a skill set that’s comparable to Mo Hurst during his time in Ann Arbor. Mason Graham and Rayshaun Benny both have shown the ability to get into the backfield in their first real taste of playing time last year.
Now, the best we’ve seen from the interior line in terms of getting to the quarterback was in 2015, when defensive tackles accounted for 12 sacks with Willie Henry, Mo Hurst and Matt Godin. This group has a higher ceiling and is putting a huge emphasis on getting to the QB early and often. Considering the edge rushers are talented but a little unknown, it stands to reason the Wolverines will rely heavily on getting sack production from the interior line. And they have the talent to achieve such a lofty number.
Michigan finishes with the nation's top run defense
This one may be a little more difficult to achieve given the Big Ten is a run-heavy conference. But Michigan football was seventh in the country in run defense a year ago, moving up 20 spots from the year before. Jenkins, Graham, Kenneth Grant, Cam Goode and Benny all are likely stronger run defenders than they are pass rushers. Add the solid linebacking corps into the mix, and the Wolverines have what should be seen as one of the best front sevens in the country.
Despite the insistence on the pass rush, stopping the run will likely remain a top priority, as it is for most every high-level college football defense. Given the talent that will be on the field is more adept in this aspect than playing against the pass, it stands to reason that the maize and blue will thrive in this area. And if the offense does what we believe it’s capable of doing, other teams will be in more pass-heavy situations than working to run the ball.
There's only one one-possession game in the regular season
Technically, 2022 had two regular-season games in which Michigan football ended with just a one-possession lead: Maryland and Illinois. But truly, only the Illinois game was in doubt.
Maryland scored a late touchdown to come within seven points, but this season, the Wolverines should overwhelm just about every foe on the schedule with a few exceptions.
While games at Nebraska, Minnesota and Maryland could present problems, only the game at Penn State and the home game against Ohio State appear to feature talent anywhere close to Michigan’s level. And no team appears to have a scheme that would challenge the Wolverines as Illinois had — though former defensive coordinator Ryan Walters now coaches at Purdue, so maybe the Boilermakers will contend.
Our choice here would be the road game at Penn State; the Nittany Lions are talented and will have that game circled on the calendar.
Rod Moore leads the team in interceptions again
Rod Moore had four interceptions a year ago, one more than Will Johnson with three — though it took Johnson just two games to achieve his feat. However, our prevailing theory here is teams will shy away from throwing near Johnson now that he’s a known commodity, whereas Moore, as a free safety, will have more freedom to roam the middle of the field.
An avid film student, Moore also should have an even better feel than he did a year ago. Though another player could come out of nowhere, it still feels like Moore is the player to beat when it comes to intercepting the football. However, Makari Paige and Mike Sainristil also should be in consideration.
If they remain healthy, Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards will combine for 3,000 all-purpose yards
This isn’t even much of a stretch when you consider the duo had 2,734 yards all-purpose in 2022, and neither was particularly healthy all season.
It appears Corum is working more in the pass game whereas Edwards might be Michigan’s best receiver. Yet, knee and hand injuries precluded him from being deployed as such.
All it would take is a simple year-over-year improvement — though, Michigan may shy away from either at times in order to be unpredictable — and that number could be achieved.
Drake Nugent wins the Rimington Trophy
This isn’t exactly an original take. PFF analyst Max Chadwick told us this was his prediction earlier in the offseason on an episode of “Locked On Wolverines.” Though two inches shorter than Olu Oluwatimi, last year’s winner, Nugent graded higher than the Wolverine standout according to PFF a year ago.
The only detriment could be if he platoons at center with Greg Crippen, something Jim Harbaugh suggested could be the case, at least in the early going.
Roman Wilson cements himself as a top-flight wideout in the Big Ten
We’ve long compared Wilson to former Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith, saying that the Michigan wideout is a diet version of the talented former Crimson Tide player. While Wilson has flashed at times, he’s battled injuries midseason each of the past two years. With Ronnie Bell gone, the Wolverines need a standout at receiver. Cornelius Johnson is capable, but Wilson has a higher ceiling.
If he stays healthy, we could see a 1,000-plus-yard season for the Hawaii native.
Special teams doesn't miss a beat
Replacing Jake Moody and Brad Robbins is no easy feat, but Michigan does have some solid talent at the specialist positions. Tommy Doman has been waiting his turn and has a huge leg as a punter. James Turner transferred over from Louisville, and while he’s not quite as strong or as accurate as Moody was, he should do more than suffice.
At returner, though A.J. Henning transferred to Northwestern, Michigan has myriad options, from Donovan Edwards to Roman Wilson to Eamonn Dennis to Mike Sainristil. Jim Harbaugh even suggested a package with Alex Orji or Kalel Mullings.
There’s enough talent where Michigan should be able to reload rather than build. With Jay Harbaugh still the special teams coordinator, there’s reason to believe that all will still be well on teams this year.
