Fantasy Trade Watch: Players you should deal before it's too late

By Neil Dutton, Player Profiler
Special to Yahoo Sports

As we approach the back half of the 2018 NFL season, there are some things that we know for certain. The Rams and the Chiefs are very good, the NFC East is very ordinary, and the Bills and Cardinals…well…did we mention that the Rams and Chiefs were good?

With NFL popularity surging, it is important to remember that not all that glitters is truly gold. Let’s look at the players who are living a lie — and you don’t want to be around when that lie is exposed.

Matt Ryan

By our estimates, Matt Ryan should have been producing at a high end QB2 level at this stage of the season. Instead, he is the No. 2 QB in fantasy football, behind only Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points. He has bounced back after a disjointed Week 1 outing against the Philadelphia Eagles, in which he completed less than 50% of his passes and didn’t throw a touchdown. In the six games since, he has completed at least 74% of his passes in in all by one game.

Ryan has not been content with merely matriculating the ball downfield. His 5.3 deep ball attempts per game ranks No. 3 in the league, and he leads the NFL in air yards. These are the type of numbers that a savvy fantasy owner will be able to use to sell Ryan to a needy rival.

But there are factors in play that identify why the savvy owner will want to sell Ryan. Ryan is currently averaging a remarkable 333.6 passing yards per game, a total nearly 30 yards greater than his MVP season of 2015 not to mention almost 70 yards more than his career average. Ryan has also overperformed in the touchdown department. His 15 touchdowns (zero to Julio Jones) are +1.25 above algorithmic expectation, suggesting his 5.7-percent TD rate is unsustainable moving forward.

Most importantly, after enjoying a marshmallow schedule through seven weeks, the Falcons face above average pass defenses from the Browns to the Cowboys to the Ravens in the second half. Regression is coming, and now is the perfect time to sell high on Ryan and seamlessly sidestep his bye week.

Calvin Ridley

For two weeks, Calvin Ridley was the toast of fantasy football, bolstered by his overall WR1 showing in Week 3. He amassed 146 yards and three touchdowns against the Saints, giving him a whopping 40.5 PPR points. He fell back to earth somewhat the next week, when his 54 yards and two scores was only good enough for WR16. But still, 62 PPR points for two weeks’ work? There is a fantasy gamer in every league willing to chase that.

Low usage will prevent Ridley from repeating his early season success. He is playing on just 56.7% of the Falcons offensive snaps while commanding 13.4-percent of the team’s targets. Ridley’s fantasy production has been boosted by an unsustainable touchdown rate. Ridley has already scored 4.6 more TDs than the typical receiver scores at similar downs and distances. Four of his touchdowns came inside the red zone, but he received zero targets inside the 20-yard line in the last three games.

As outlined earlier, the Falcons second half schedule is much more difficult. Ridley’s 5.78 average yards of cushion, which ranks No. 1 in the NFL, should tighten against quality cornerbacks. Expect Ryan to target Julio Jones more and Ridley less in the red zone for the remainder of the season as his touchdown total continues to regress.

Eric Ebron

As the saying goes, a change can be as good as a rest. Ebron is currently one of the best embodiments of this notion plying its trade in the NFL. A former first round pick of the Lions, Ebron is enjoying himself far more in Indianapolis than he ever did in Detroit. He has benefited greatly from the injury to Jack Doyle, but you cannot argue that he hasn’t made the most of his opportunities. He currently leads all NFL tight ends with an astronomical 19.9-percent Hog Rate (targets per snap) despite gross inefficiency when targeted, evidenced by a 55.9-percent Catch Rate, which ranks No. 31 among qualified NFL tight ends. Ebron’s high usage looks particularly unsustainable in this context.

Looking the part of the quintessential touchdown-dependent tight end this season, Ebron’s usage in the scoring zone is due to regress back to something closer to league average. His 26.9-percent red zone target share ranks No. 5 among qualified NFL tight ends, while his 39.1-percent end zone target share ranks second. Most dramatically, with Doyle and Hilton missing time with injury during Week 3-6, Ebron saw at least two red zone looks in every game.

Ebron’s target share, especially in the red zone, dropped when Hilton returned, and is further at-risk the moment Jack Doyle returns. Even with Doyle active, Ebron should continue to command targets in the red zone. Sporting a 42.9-percent Contested Catch Rate (No. 5), Luck may continue to force Ebron the ball in scoring areas…at least this is the story you should be telling your league mate during trade talks [evil laugh].

Doug Martin

When your expectations for a player are ridiculously low to begin with, it’s hard to class them as a fraud when they don’t produce. This is especially true of Doug Martin. But with Marshawn Lynch recently being placed on Injured Reserve, Martin finds himself thrust into a primary back role for a wayward franchise. Primary backs rarely show up on the fantasy football waiver wire, and yet, adding Martin is wasting a roster spot.

Zooming out, Martin enjoyed a 51-percent Opportunity Share with the Buccaneers in 2017 and was catastrophically awful. He averaged 36.9 rushing yards and 7.6 receiving yards per game. He managed 0.48 Fantasy Points Per Opportunity, No. 127 among NFL running backs last season. He created three breakaway runs amongst his 138 carries while showing no elusiveness, evidenced by his 19.7-percent Juke Rate (No. 41) and 0.93 Yards Created Per Carry (No. 49).

To show that last year was no fluke, Martin has brought this inefficiency with him to Oakland. While Lynch was averaging 2.00 Yards Created Per Carry this season, Martin created just 0.61 yards per carry, No. 121 in the NFL. Leave Martin in the league free agent pool and let one of your league mates step on this inefficient booby trap. Or, if you’ve already picked him up, try and trade him to an RB-needy team if you can before Martin is exposed.

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