Fantasy Update: Toyota came to play at Sonoma
Ahead of Saturday‘s qualifying session at Sonoma Raceway for the Toyota/Save Mart 350, one would’ve assumed Tyler Reddick would pace the Toyotas. And he did — until Denny Hamlin made a surprisingly fast run in the waning seconds to earn just his second career pole award on a road course (Watkins Glen, 2018). All told, Toyota put five of its six entries in the top eight in qualifying, with Bubba Wallace being the lone exception in 18th.
RELATED: Martin Truex Jr. enjoying a new resource in 2023 — Tyler Reddick
Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Tyler Reddick
Starter 2: Chase Elliott
Starter 3: AJ Allmendinger
Starter 4: Chris Buescher
Starter 5: Ty Gibbs
Garage pick: Michael McDowell
NEXT IN LINE: Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Daniel Suárez, Denny Hamlin
RISING: Noted in Fastlane earlier this week was that Hamlin had a best effort of 13th in the seven road-course races in the Next Gen era. His average qualifying position for those races is 16.3, including a 10th-place starting position at Sonoma last year. So just because the No. 11 team qualified up front this weekend, it doesn‘t necessarily mean it will race well. Hamlin does have a road course win to his resume, however, and before the Next Gen chassis, he often showcased his skills when turning left and right. This might be the weekend the No. 11 team needed to turn its fortune around on such race tracks.
It took 32 road-course starts for Ricky Stenhouse Jr. to get his first top 10 at COTA earlier this year, but the No. 47 team brought more of that speed to Sonoma this weekend. Stenhouse ranked ninth in practice and qualified 13th. Now it will be up to the Mike Kelley-led team to see if it can have speed for the duration of a long run.
FALLING: In the Cup Series‘ first road course event of the season at Circuit of The Americas, William Byron thought he handily had the second-best car in the field to Reddick. On that afternoon, he led 28 laps and dropped to fifth in the finishing position after late-race madness on restarts. The No. 24 Chevrolet showed no pace on Saturday, however, running the 27th quickest time in practice. Qualifying wasn‘t much better, as he will start 26th.
Over the past handful of seasons, Kevin Harvick has simply gotten it done at Sonoma. He has six top-six finishes in the last seven races in Wine Country. On Saturday, Harvick struggled with the handling of his Ford and was just 28th on the scoring chart in practice (27th on five-lap averages). Though he upped his qualifying performance to 21st, I‘d shy away from using the No. 4 team this weekend.
FEATURED MATCHUPS:
Kevin Harvick vs. Martin Truex Jr.
With how consistent Toyota looked in practice and qualifying, this one seems relatively easy this weekend. That‘s surprising because Harvick and the No. 4 team typically find pace during Sonoma races and contend for a top-five finishing position. The only reason Truex isn‘t in my starting lineup is because I have limited uses left for the No. 19 car, so he’s the pick here.
Chase Elliott vs. Tyler Reddick
Certainly, this is the toughest matchup of the weekend. It‘s like King Kong vs. Godzilla of the drivers that have had the most success on road courses over the past few seasons. Reddick has seemed to take the throne over, winning three of the last five races on them. He also has immediate track position on Sunday by starting second. It wouldn‘t be surprising if he dominated another road course event.
Austin Cindric vs. Ty Gibbs
Team Penske looks like it has some catching up to do after practice and qualifying, with Joey Logano having the best starting position in 17th. Cindric did express concern last season regarding the team‘s road course program, and he will take the green flag from the 34th position. Gibbs showed the speed to have a career weekend, and his aggressive nature lends itself to this style of racing, so he‘s the right pick.
AJ Allmendinger vs. Ross Chastain
For not believing himself that he‘s a good road-course racer, Chastain has put together quality races on road courses since joining Trackhouse Racing last season. But Allmendinger could probably figure out a way to wheel a boat fast around Sonoma. Going with the road-course ace this weekend.
