Fantasy preview: How will Chiefs’ stars perform against Chargers?

In advance of Thursday night’s Kansas City Chiefs–Los Angeles Chargers game, Chiefs Wire examines the matchup with fantasy football projections for Kansas City players courtesy of our colleagues at The Huddle.

This matchup is the second meeting of the season between the AFC West rivals, as the Chargers won 30-24 in Kansas City in Week 3 during the slow start by the Chiefs. The Chargers are 8-5 and on a two-game winning streak, but the Chiefs are 9-4 and tied for the No. 1 seed in the AFC and riding a six-game winning streak. A Chiefs win would put them up two games with three remaining, so this is really a fight for the division. If the Chargers win, the teams would be tied and the Chargers would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. This is a high-stakes matchup.

I like the Chargers to pull the upset here. The Chiefs are winning small lately and almost entirely at home for the past six weeks. The Chargers already beat the Chiefs once in Kansas City. This game should provide one of the best Thursday nights of the year.

Team notes

The Chiefs rolled up a crushing win over the Raiders last week, but most of their recent wins have been ugly and close — and without those delightful shootouts spewing fantasy points from a fire hose. Defenses have schemed to take away the deep passing and tried to force the Chiefs to throw short or even actually run the ball. The star players still rank well overall thanks to early-season point bonanzas, but Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes and even Travis Kelce are falling in the rankings. Kelce is now the No. 2 tight end behind Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, when he typically would be No. 1 with a distance on whoever was No. 2 for the past few years. Winning is winning — and the Chiefs have done that. But their fantasy fortunes are no longer a weekly guarantee of a top performance.

Quarterback

Mahomes passed for 260 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3 against the Chargers. He ran for 45 yards on four rushes, but he also threw two interceptions. After 14 scores in the first four games, Mahomes has evolved into a good quarterback with the occasional great game. Since Week 7, he only has thrown for more than one score in two games — both meetings with the Raiders. Otherwise, he has passed for only two total touchdowns over the previous five games while turning in only moderate yardage. What makes this even a little more interesting is that a schedule quirk had the Chiefs playing only one road game in the past six matchups, and that was against the Raiders.

Patrick Mahomes projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 24.5
Passing: 270 yds, 2 TDs
Rushing: 30 yds

Running backs

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for 100 yards on 17 carries and scored on his two receptions for nine yards against the Chargers in Week 3. He ran for 102 yards the next week but then was injured through Week 11. Edwards-Helaire scored twice last week but only gained 37 yards on 10 carries and caught three passes for five yards. Even though the offense shifted to shorter passing and more ball control, Edwards-Helaire is never given more than 14 carries — other than the 17 he was allowed in Week 3 versus the Chargers. His workload will be an interesting comparison to earlier in the season.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 19
Rushing: 70 yds, 1 TD
Receiving: 3 rec, 30 yds

Darrel Williams projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 7
Rushing: 30 yds
Receiving: 2 rec, 20 yds

Wide receivers

Hill only gained 56 yards on five catches in the first meeting with the Chargers. Mecole Hardman recorded three receptions for 33 yards and one touchdown. Hill has scored in just one of the past five games — against the Raiders in Week 10 — and his yardage has been disturbingly low considering that five of the past six games were at home. None of the other wideouts have ever offered any reliable production, but now Hill is no longer rolling up obscene yardage or even scoring much.

Tyreek Hill projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 21
Receiving: 7 rec, 80 yds, 1 TD

Mecole Hardman projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 5
Receiving: 2 rec, 30 yds

Tight end

Kelce recorded 104 yards on seven catches against the Chargers in Week 3. He also incurred a lowering of targets and yardage. Since Week 3, Kelce has topped 100 yards just once and scored in three of the past 10 games. Three of his past six games have ended with exactly 27 yards.

Travis Kelce projection vs. Chargers
Fantasy Points: 19
Receiving: 6 rec, 70 yds, 1 TD

Match to defense

The Chargers’ main weakness is against running backs. They’ve already allowed 18 scores to the position and over 100 rushing yards to any decent backfield. All of the Chiefs’ main skill players are must-play even with the dip in production. But Edwards-Helaire, in particular, is situated for a plus game.

The Chargers have limited opposing quarterbacks to two passing scores and moderate-to-good yardage. The rushing gains that they allow tend to lower what quarterbacks are asked to do. Mahomes remains below 40 passes in almost every recent game, but there is a chance of a high-scoring shootout with two able quarterbacks. He is not the lock for a points explosion that he was, but he’s still capable of lighting it up in matchups such as this.