Fantasy Update: Practice, qualifying not indicative of who to pick at Dover
Miles the Monster came out to play during practice and qualifying on Saturday at Dover Motor Speedway. There were two crashes and Christopher Bell brushed the wall during his qualifying lap. Some teams were thrown for a loop with drastic tire wear that had some cords showing. With roughly 20-degree warmer temperatures anticipated for Sunday‘s Würth 400, teams were trying to get a baseline for their cars, knowing track conditions will be completely different during the race. Expect plenty of comers and goers during the race, making it a tough task to set a fantasy lineup.
RELATED: Set your Fantasy Live lineup
Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Martin Truex Jr.
Starter 2: Kyle Larson
Starter 3: William Byron
Starter 4: Denny Hamlin
Starter 5: Alex Bowman
Garage pick: Ty Gibbs
NEXT IN LINE: Kyle Busch, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Chase Elliott
RISING: Just because a car was good on Saturday doesn‘t make it a given that the same team will perform well on the same track with very different race conditions. However, Blaney will have track position for the start of the race, as he will take the initial green flag inside the top 10 for the fifth straight Dover race. Aside from last season when Blaney finished third, his starting position didn‘t matter much, having not scored a top 10 since 2018. Blaney was also fast earlier this season at Bristol, another concrete track.
I‘m trying not to change my lineup drastically compared to earlier this week, believing that the race will be filled with movement. But Kyle Busch and the No. 8 team needed a day like Saturday, winning his second pole award since joining Richard Childress Racing. Over the past handful of seasons, the two-time Cup champion has had mixed results at Dover. Last year, he finished three laps down despite starting from the pole.
FALLING: Chastain is the only driver to have top-five finishes in both Next Gen races at Dover. If the No. 1 team is to make that three consecutive top fives, Chastain will be coming from much deeper in the field. During his qualifying lap, Chastain hit the apron, upsetting his car and will start 22nd. Chastain was average at best in practice, turning in the 21st best 10-lap average. The No. 1 team has slipped from my lineup, but it wouldn‘t be surprising to see the team perform better in different conditions.
No matter the track conditions, it‘s rare to see a Hendrick Motorsports entry qualify 29th on pure speed, particularly when that is Elliott at Dover, who has nine top-five finishes in 13 starts. I still think Elliott is worth considering for a lineup spot on Saturday, but it will be difficult for him to score stage points in the opening stage.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Tyler Reddick vs. Kyle Busch: This battle might turn out to be the toughest of the weekend with both drivers starting in the top two rows. Busch will lead the field to the green flag for the second consecutive year at Dover, while Reddick earned the best starting spot of his career here. I‘m hesitant to flop to Busch, but leaning in that direction based on his experience advantage at Dover and having gone through plenty of weekends throughout his career where there was a gigantic shift in track conditions between practice and the race.
Alex Bowman vs. Ross Chastain: Chastain‘s recent success at Dover can‘t be stated enough, but Bowman has quietly strung together a solid reputation of being among the drivers to beat at Dover. That continued Saturday, as the No. 48 car cracked the final round of qualifying for just the third time this season. I‘ve flipped my decision to Bowman this weekend, believing that it‘s going to be Toyota vs. Hendrick Motorsports for the win.
Kyle Larson vs. Chase Elliott: Consider me shocked to see both Larson and Elliott qualify outside the top 20. It won‘t be surprising if either mow through the field early as rubber gets put on to the track and multiple grooves form. Larson‘s dirt-racing background might pay off significantly this weekend with the anticipated track change from one day to the next.
Denny Hamlin vs. Christopher Bell: No matter the track conditions, every driver in the field will mention how important track position is at Dover. Bell bottomed out in qualifying entering Turn 3 and slapped the wall during his qualifying lap and was unable to make a timed lap. The No. 20 team will replace the diffuser and not go to a backup car. Hamlin looks to have one of the strongest cars in the field on the short and long run, so it will be tough for the No. 20 team to overcome that deficit.
