Fantasy Update: Last-minute advice for Las Vegas
With practice and qualifying washed out last week at Auto Club Speedway, Saturday marked the first true practice and qualifying sessions on an intermediate track in 2023. And while some things change, much has remained the same as Hendrick Motorsports and Team Penske look to be the teams to beat entering Sunday‘s Pennzoil 400 presented by Jiffy Lube.
Dustin Albino‘s race-day lineup:
Starter 1: Kyle Larson
Starter 2: William Byron
Starter 3: Ryan Blaney
Starter 4: Joey Logano
Starter 5: Ross Chastain
Garage pick: Alex Bowman
NEXT IN LINE: Bubba Wallace, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Kevin Harvick.
RELATED: Updated odds for Sunday | Best bet for Sunday
RISING: RFK Racing was encouraged with its speed in California last week, and both of its entries showed speed off the haulers Saturday. Chris Buescher was fourth on single-lap speed and eighth on 10-lap averages. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski will line up seventh and is a three-time winner in “Sin City.” Don‘t be surprised if both cars finish inside the top 15 for a second consecutive week.
Given that Ty Gibbs is amid his first full season as a Cup Series driver, there are going to be peaks and valleys, if you will. But the No. 54 Toyota was impressive in practice and qualifying, posting the eighth quickest time in practice. He will take the green flag from fourth position — his best qualifying effort in what will be his 18th start.
FALLING: When a late caution flew in last year‘s spring Vegas race, Martin Truex Jr. was battling Busch for the lead. As it turned out, crew chief James Small called him to pit road for fresh tires and he placed eighth. That same speed didn‘t quite show up on Saturday, as the No. 19 Toyota ranked 20th of 23 cars that made a run of at least 10 consecutive laps. Perhaps shy away from using Truex this week and save him for next — Phoenix, a place he‘s run strong at in recent years.
While Ross Chastain was among the quickest cars on Saturday, his Trackhouse Racing teammate Daniel Suárez struggled. The No. 99 Chevrolet was 18th in practice and qualified 24th. Chastain is eighth. Suárez has one top-10 finish in 11 Vegas starts.
FEATURED MATCHUPS
Kyle Busch vs. Joey Logano: Entering the weekend, it was hard not to be on the No. 8 team‘s bandwagon with its stellar performance last week in Fontana. Roles have been reversed after qualifying, with Logano getting his first pole in Las Vegas since 2014. The defending Cup champion has been in contention to win each of the first two races, and spoiler, he‘s my pick to win Sunday‘s race. He also won the fall Vegas race last October.
Christopher Bell vs. Martin Truex Jr.: Based on the speed chart, Bell should get the nod over Truex this weekend. The No. 20 car was better than Truex in all statistical categories on Saturday and was battling for a top-five spot in the fall, when he was taken out by a wreck in front of him involving Bubba Wallace and Kyle Larson.
Ryan Blaney vs. Denny Hamlin: It’s surprising Blaney hasn‘t rattled off a win at Las Vegas with how frequently he runs toward the front. He was running second in the fall when he lost control of his car late in the race, hampering his chances of advancing to the Championship 4. Hamlin, while he did win here two years ago, isn‘t spectacular on this 1.5-mile track. Blaney was second in single-lap speed; fourth in 10-lap averages and starts third. Yeah, I think he‘s going to have a good outing on Sunday.
Ross Chastain vs. Kyle Larson: Going into the weekend, this was a nearly even matchup, and after Saturday, my feelings haven‘t changed. This is a true tossup, with both being in the top five on 10-lap averages and starting one row apart from each other. With how much pace Chastain showed in both Vegas races last season, it‘s hard to bet against the No. 1 team. But Larson is going to have something to prove on Sunday, so I’m going to give him a slight advantage.
