Fantasy Football Week 8 Trade Analyzer: Time to move some players coming off big games
Sal Vetri is a new Yahoo Fantasy contributor this season. He'll write a weekly football trade story focusing on players to deal. This week, he highlights five players to trade and two to target.
Note: You can view recent trades completed on Yahoo Fantasy for the players mentioned in this article to help provide additional ideas on potential deals. Visit the trade market for more details.
Sell high on Jahmyr Gibbs
In Week 7, Gibbs earned 86% of the snaps and handled 79% of the Lions rush attempts. This resulted in 20 total touches for 126 yards. This was the elite usage you were hoping for when you drafted Gibbs. He brought in nine of 10 targets and commanded the snaps in every situation. In two games without David Montgomery, Gibbs has played 75% of the snaps and averaged 19 touches per game.
But that’s the issue: Gibbs has only seen strong usage with Montgomery out. Montgomery’s current injury is not a long-term issue. He could return as soon as this week, but it’s more likely he will return after Detroit’s Week 9 bye.
There’s a good chance Gibbs gets another week as the workhorse back. In Week 8, he’ll have another solid matchup against the Raiders bottom-10 tackling unit. But you have to ask yourself, what are the odds he posts another elite performance? It’s unlikely Detroit trails by three scores all game again, which would reduce Gibbs' passing-game usage.
Try to sell high on Gibbs with Montgomery set to return in 1-2 weeks. Target Rhamondre Stevenson or Kyren Williams (more on him later) in deals.
Try to trade D’Onta Foreman
He was the top-scoring running back in Week 7. Foreman earned over 30 points on 19 touches. He contributed both on the ground with 89 yards and two scores and as a receiver earning 31 yards and another score.
Foreman has benefitted from both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson being out. Both backs were ahead of Foreman entering the season. In fact, Foreman wasn’t even active from Weeks 2 through 5.
Herbert will miss more time as he remains on IR, but Roschon Johnson is trending in the right direction. He’s been dealing with a more aggressive concussion, but the early reports for Week 8 are encouraging. Johnson only needs to pass one more hurdle in the concussion protocol.
Expect Johnson to suit up against the Chargers' bottom-five run defense on Sunday. Foreman has averaged 18 opportunities in the past two games as the starter; expect this to decrease with Johnson returning. If you can, trade Foreman for Kareem Hunt or Gus Edwards.
Buy low on Kyren Williams
He’s on IR for at least three more games with an ankle injury. But if your team is in a good position, this is the perfect time to acquire him in a deal. Darrell Henderson Jr. (more on him later) led the Rams backfield in touches this past week. He’s a fine fill-in off waivers the next few games, but it’s clear his role won’t be as good as Williams'.
Henderson wasn’t used in all situations like Williams has been. When Williams was healthy, he was the trusted back in pass protection, on passing downs and in the red zone. Let’s not forget how elite his role has been this year. Since Cam Akers was out of the mix in Week 2, Williams has played 88% of the snaps and handled 80% of the carries.
Williams was efficient on his touches as well, averaging 5.1 yards per touch. This level of efficiency is much better than Henderson displayed in Week 7 and for most of his career. Target Williams in trades.
Trade Rachaad White away
White regained his workhorse usage in Week 7. He handled 78% of the snaps and 68% of the rush attempts. He also commanded the majority of the passing-down snaps leading to a solid six-target performance.
This is all good news, but there’s still an issue. White remained inefficient on the ground. He averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. This is a worrisome trend we continue to see over his 23 career games. White ranks 52nd in RB efficiency this season.
We’ve seen other backs lose touches this season due to inefficiency. Dameon Pierce is one example. He’s losing snaps and touches to Devin Singletary. White doesn’t have much backfield competition, but there’s still a chance another back earns more work if White’s struggles on the ground continue.
Try to move White off his 99-yard performance. He has tough matchups against the Titans and 49ers coming up. Trade him for someone like Garrett Wilson or Nico Collins.
Continue to sell Courtland Sutton
He had another strong game in Week 7, scoring 16.6 points on six targets. Sutton did most of his damage in the first half while the game was close.
Sutton ranks 23rd in fantasy points per game among wide receivers. However, he ranks 48th in expected points based on his usage. He’s only expected to score 10.7 points per game on his current usage of 6.2 targets per game. This is 22% less than he’s scored so far.
The takeaway here is Sutton has been getting lucky through his first seven games.
Sutton ranks 31st in targets this year. Wide receivers with similar usage rank in the WR35 to WR40 range. But Sutton has sustained top-24 production because of his touchdowns. He’s scoring on 11% of his targets, two times more than the NFL average. Deal Sutton for a more sustainable player who earns higher volume like Diontae Johnson.
Trade for Marquise Brown
He’s coming off his second straight bad game but his volume still remains high. Brown has 18 targets in the past two games. A lot of his struggles have to do with the poor play of Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs completed just 19 of 33 passes for 146 yards in Week 7.
Now, the reason Brown is a buy-low candidate besides the strong volume is because Kyler Murray is returning soon. Jay Glazer reported the Cardinals still want to build around the QB. There's a chance Murray plays in Week 8 and this would be fantastic for Brown.
Last season, Brown was a top-six WR to start the season, averaging 14.7 points on 10.7 targets per game. He then fractured his foot and missed a large chunk of the year. Once he returned, Murray was hurt and Brown's rest-of-season results can largely be ignored.
Brown has legit top-15 upside for the rest of the season. Buy low before Murray returns.
Sell high on Darrell Henderson Jr.
He started in Week 7 for the Rams and led the backfield with 19 total touches. Henderson played 57% of the snaps and handled 60% of the opportunities. He now has 15+ touches in 16 games with the Rams.
Sean McVay clearly trusts Henderson. He gave him a full workload, despite Henderson not being on an active roster since last season. The story is nice but Henderson remained inefficient. He averaged just 3.5 yards per touch, similar to his career average, and he didn’t see an elite role.
Royce Freeman was still involved too, playing 42% of the snaps and Freeman was efficient while averaging 5.5 yards per touch. Henderson happened to be the RB who scored, but both guys were used in the red zone and at the goal line.
This will be a split backfield over the next month until Kyren Williams returns — and Myles Gaskin could also get in the mix. But there’s a chance your leaguemates believe Henderson is the clear-cut starter. If this is the case, try to trade Henderson for someone like Rashee Rice or Tyler Lockett.
